If Daniel Jones Won't Settle With Colts, Why Not Kyler Murray?

The Indianapolis Colts have been working since the season's end to extend quarterback Daniel Jones. If the two sides can't get it done, why would the Colts not look for alternative options? Especially if a two-time Pro Bowler enters the open market.

"I'm told it's 50/50 that the Colts will be able to get a deal done with Daniel Jones by the deadline tomorrow," ESPN's Adam Schefter said on Monday. "Either they get a deal done for Daniel Jones, or he winds up, I think in my mind, with the transition tag. I think that's in play here."

Schefter highlighted the transition tag as an option for the Colts to use on Jones, which would grant the 28-year-old passer the right to negotiate with other teams who are interested. The Colts would fully guarantee a one-year, $37.8 million deal, and if there is any offer Jones would like to accept from another team, Indianapolis has a chance to match before the deal goes through.

Here are the franchise and transition tag numbers. https://t.co/lQmkYAWFEf pic.twitter.com/1W56KCBLKt
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) February 27, 2026

The transition tag would save the team over $5 million, as the price for this year's franchise tag for quarterbacks is $43.9 million. The Colts' preference for the transition tag likely implies Jones' representation is pushing for a deal worth over $40 million annually, something Chris Ballard and the Colts are hesitant to accept.

The Colts would be doing a disservice by locking themselves into a contract for a player who only started 12 games and struggled in the final four. After trading their first-round picks across the next two seasons, drafting a highly rated quarterback is not an option, either. The team also just granted former No. 4 overall pick Anthony Richardson Sr. the right to seek a trade.

If Jones is not the team's week one starter, it will mark the ninth different week one starter for the team since 2017. A name circulating in the quarterback market is Cardinals' Kyler Murray, a former No. 1 overall pick in 2019.

Rap: Kyler Murray likely to be released by the Cardinals barring last minute trade.
— Underdog NFL (@UnderdogNFL) March 1, 2026

After being benched in 2025, Arizona was reportedly shopping the quarterback on the trade market. However, due to a current cap hit of $52.7 million, the team was met with little demand. The Cardinals are expected to release Murray, barring a last-minute trade.

This shifts the price for acquiring Murray from expensive to quite cheap. The 28-year-old has completed just one full season of the last four. His agency will not have the leverage that someone like Jones currently has, having provided the Colts with the most success at the position the organization's current regime has ever received.

A lack of necessary draft capital is crucial, too. The Colts are working with five total draft picks this spring, though Ballard noted he expects the team to receive conditional selections before the draft. Acquiring Murray will no longer cost the team picks, essentially evening the playing field in choosing him or Jones.

Jones will be 29 years old by the time the 2026 season begins. He will have suffered and ideally recovered from both a fractured fibula and a torn Achilles tendon suffered just 10 months prior to kickoff. In his seven seasons in the NFL, Jones has completed a full season only once, whether due to injuries or demotion.

Colts have made clear to Alec Pierce they plan to keep him via a franchise/transition tag or a long-term deal.

But a tag for Jones is becoming a real possibility due to the absence of a new deal. Some in league believe Indy is leaning that way. https://t.co/GAO1KwPY0t pic.twitter.com/0u1JIFLKFP
— Jeremy Fowler (@JFowlerESPN) March 1, 2026

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There is no denying Murray's fair share of injuries, either. But the quality of play from both players has been far from similar. In his first three seasons, Murray racked up 90 total touchdowns, the seventh-most by a quarterback in their first three seasons in NFL history.

That's only fewer than that of Justin Herbert, Dan Marino, Andrew Luck, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, and Cam Newton. It's more than both Peyton Manning and Lamar Jackson, who are eighth and ninth, respectively.

Bye bye Ky 👋 @AZCardinals take an early lead!

📺: #AZvsSF on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/EUHKDDLEoO
— NFL (@NFL) October 6, 2024

Jones totaled 50 touchdowns in his first three seasons, albeit playing in eight fewer games. He turned the ball over 35 times in that span, barely edging Murray's 36 total giveaways.

But why does any of this matter? Both quarterbacks have obviously grown, with Jones posting what was on pace to be the best season of his career under Shane Steichen. He had 24 total touchdowns through 12 complete starts, already an improvement over his 22 total touchdowns in the 2022 season that saw the Giants make the playoffs.

Since that 2022 season, however, Jones has been either unavailable or incapable. Across his next 16 starts in New York, he totalled 13 touchdowns to 13 turnovers. That span included a torn ACL that ended Jones' 2023 campaign with three touchdowns to six turnovers.

Arriving in Indianapolis, Jones helped push a league-best rushing attack over the top with a consistent passing game. That pass game crumbled on the road against the Steelers and the Rams, the team's only two losses before the bye. Jones racked up four fumbles (two lost) and five interceptions in the two games.

Jones continued to struggle in losses to Kansas City and Houston after the bye, including choking a 20-9 lead in Arrowhead where the Colts' offense didn't pick up a first down in the fourth quarter or overtime. He finished the season with nine total fumbles and eight interceptions.

#Colts QB Daniel Jones on his fibula injury:

“It was just something that kind of was hanging over and (I) realized it last week. …”

“Tough to say exactly when (the injury occurred) …”

“I’ll be ready to go on Sunday. Obviously, (I) was out there last week. I’m good to go.” pic.twitter.com/TNslwcskwm
— James Boyd (@RomeovilleKid) November 26, 2025

The principle here is simple: whatever the Colts put around Jones, who had struggled to emerge as a quality starter for the entirety of his tenure in New York, it worked. An elite offensive line, a league-best running back, a league-best deep threat, and above-average play calling flipped Jones from unplayable to more than serviceable.

Now imagine what that environment could do for someone like Murray. Despite the Cardinals' 8-9 finish in 2024, he ranked ninth in QBR among NFL quarterbacks. His 4,423 total yards that season would be a career-high for Jones, yet that total was over 300 yards short of Murray's 2020 campaign.

I believe the Colts will work out a deal with Jones, whether that is before or after Tuesday's tag deadline, is something I am unsure of. The decision to keep Jones is not surprising, but the price tag may come back to bite the franchise if he doesn't deliver similar caliber play to his highest highs from last season.

It is not often that former Heisman-winning No. 1 overall picks are available on the open market, especially at Murray's age. The Colts should at least do their due diligence on his potential price and availability if they have any intention of truly improving the team for the greater good of the entire roster.

Overpaying Jones due to a sense that there are no better options seems eerily reminiscent of a certain New York team that did the same thing in early 2023. We all know how that worked out for them, and one can only hope the Colts don't make the same mistake.