Where Do Colts Stand in AFC Playoff Picture After TNF?

The 2025 NFL season has been nothing short of incredible for the Indianapolis Colts. They've found new life under Shane Steichen, but they're also facing heavy competition for the top seed in the AFC.

After Week 10 concluded on Monday, the Colts remained atop the AFC leaderboard with an 8-2 record, but the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots shared the same number of wins.

With the Colts heading into their bye in Week 11, they have no control over whether or not they keep their spot as the number one seed, at least for now.

How the Patriots' Win on TNF Affects the Colts

The Patriots played the New York Jets on Thursday Night Football in Foxborough this week, securing a 27-14 win to move to 9-2 on the season.

New England's win means they leapfrogged the Colts in the AFC playoff picture, and they are currently in sole possession of the number one seed. The Patriots haven't had their bye week, though, so the Colts can still take back that spot if they keep winning.

The #Patriots (9–2) have the most wins in the NFL and currently hold the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoff picture.
— Mike Kadlick (@mikekadlick) November 14, 2025

The Patriots have completely turned things around under head coach Mike Vrabel, and they're giving the Colts a run for their money for home-field advantage in the postseason.

The two sides won't face each other in the regular season, so the eventual determining factor could be conference record. The Colts are 6-1 in conference play, with their one loss coming to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 9. The Patriots are 5-2 in conference play, with losses against the Las Vegas Raiders and Steelers.

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The Broncos also have a chance to jump over the Colts in the AFC standings if they can beat the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday afternoon. The Colts already beat the Broncos, however, so if they tie in record by the end of the season, the Colts will hold the head-to-head tiebreaker.

Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (28) celebrates in the end zone Sunday, Sept. 14, 2025, during a game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. | Grace Hollars/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

If there is a three-way tie, then it goes back to conference record as the determining factor.

The Colts have five AFC games left on their schedule. They'll face the Chiefs in Week 12, and then they'll face the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars twice each in the final five weeks.

The Colts have a huge lead in the AFC South, but those divisional games are always up in the air. If the Colts can win just two of those, they should have a good chance at claiming their first AFC South title since 2014.

AFC South Standings Week 10

🔵 Colts: 8-2
🟢 Jaguars: 5-4
🔴 Texans: 4-5
⚪️ Titans: 1-8

Colts still have 4 games vs Jaguars & Texans. Could either finish the AFC South race or it could get much tighter. pic.twitter.com/SseCbfjTad
— Jay Robins (@TheJayRobins) November 9, 2025

When you look at the betting odds, the Colts are the heavy favorites to win the division. On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Colts are -550 favorites. The Jaguars are +650 underdogs while the Texans are +1300 long shots.

There's still lots of football left, but this weekend's games will have a massive impact on AFC playoff seeding when it's all said and done. If the Broncos lose, it may boil down to the Colts and the Patriots in a race for the number one seed.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How the Patriots' Win on TNF Affects the Colts

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