Cowboys' Defense Just Needs to Be Average For Return to NFL Playoffs

ESPN's Mike Clay has a different view of the Dallas Cowboys' 2026 schedule, and a favorable projection along with it.

Dallas Cowboys defensive back Caleb Downs and defensive coordinator Christian Parker. | Chris Jones-Imagn Images

We know the Dallas Cowboys have one of the toughest schedules in the NFL in 2026 based on the projected win totals of their opponents from Vegas oddsmakers.

Dallas' slate comes in as the fourth-toughest in the NFL based on that metric, which is the best way to calculate strength of schedule because it takes into account what a team did throughout the offseason.

That is obviously not an ideal setup for a Cowboys team that is looking to get back to the playoffs after missing out the past couple of seasons.

Despite that difficult road, one analyst believes the Cowboys are going to successfully navigate it to mid-January football.

Mike Clay's favorable projection for Cowboys

Dallas Cowboys cornerback Caleb Downs. | Chris Jones-Imagn Images

If you're a Cowboys fan looking for some optimism, you'll love the projections from ESPN's Mike Clay. The analyst calculates that the Cowboys actually have the 11th-toughest schedule in the league, which is based on the win probability for each of their games.

Speaking of that win probability, the Cowboys are favored to win in 11 of their 17 games, and Clay predicts 10.1 wins for Dallas, which ranks eighth in the NFL. That ranking also means the Cowboys would be in the postseason.

Clay projects this for the Cowboys despite thinking Dallas owns the No. 18 defense. We've said all along that if Dallas can just play average defense, it would be a playoff team because of how good the offense is. Clay, who ranked Dallas' offense fourth, clearly agrees.

Here's a look at the games in which Dallas is and isn't favored to win in Clay's projections.

A general view of the line of scrimmage as Dallas Cowboys center Cooper Beebe snaps the ball at training camp | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Favored

New York Giants (away and home) - 60% and 74%
Washington Commanders (home and away) - 79% and 66%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (home) - 68%
Arizona Cardinals (home) - 89%
Indianapolis Colts (away) - 57%
San Francisco 49ers (home) - 62%
Tennessee Titans (home) - 88%
Philadelphia Eagles (home) - 55%
Jacksonville Jaguars (home) - 67%

Not favored

Baltimore Ravens (Brazil) - 46%
Houston Texans (away) - 49%
Green Bay Packers (away) - 49%
Philadelphia Eagles (away) - 40%
Seattle Seahawks (away) - 35%
Los Angeles Rams (away) - 22%

No surprise, the Cowboys have their highest win probabilities versus two of the worst teams in the league from last season, Tennessee and Arizona. We do think the Cardinals are going to stink again this season, but the Titans should be improved following a busy offseason on both sides of the ball.

The lowest win probabilities on Dallas' schedule come from the games against the Rams and Seahawks. That's understandable because of the expectation both teams will be elite and Dallas having to travel to the west coast. One thing working in the Cowboys' favor is they have a bye in between those games.

Dallas Cowboys head coach Brian Schottenheimer looks on before the game against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium. | Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images

Dallas is only favored to win three road games, with those coming against the Giants, Commanders and Colts.

When it comes to the rest of the NFC East, Cowboys fans won't like that Philly has the highest projected win total at 11, so Clay doesn't have Dallas winning the division.

That said, it's not like Clay has Dallas that far off from Philly, and he also has Dallas finishing with more wins than Washington (6.3) and New York (7.4).

That's quite a fair projection for a Dallas team that still has a lot to prove on the defensive side of the ball in 2026.

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