Revisiting Our Final Dolphins 2022 Roster Projection ... And How We Fared
Now that the Miami Dolphins have gotten down to the 53-player roster limit following their series of moves Tuesday, it's a good time to check back on how we did with our latest roster projects and explain how we were right in some case and wrong in some others.
As a final score, we had 49 correct players on the initial 53-man roster, missing only RB Salvon Ahmed, TE Tanner Conner, LB Sam Eguavoen and CB Kader Kohou. The four players we had on the 53 who didn't make it were G Solomon Kindley, LB Cameron Goode, DB Quincy Wilson and CB Byron Jones, who we had predicted would be moved to the active roster but instead was shifted to the Reserve/PUP list, which will sideline him for at least the first four games of the 2022 regular season.
Here was the breakdown by position:
QUARTERBACK
On the roster before final cuts: Tua Tagovailoa, Teddy Bridgewater, Skylar Thompson
Analysis: We had Skylar Thompson on our previous 53-man roster projection, and all he did in the preseason finale was make a brilliant closing argument. While the preseason isn't the same as the regular season and the notion of him being ready to replace Teddy Bridgewater as the No. 2 quarterback is too much for us, we are more convinced than ever that there is no way the Dolphins can keep Thompson off the 53-man and they'll just have to carry three quarterbacks.
The 53-man roster projection (3): Tua Tagovailoa, Teddy Bridgewater, Skylar Thompson
How we did: Nailed it.
RUNNING BACK
On the roster before final cuts: Raheem Mostert, Chase Edmonds, Sony Michel, Myles Gaskin, Salvon Ahmed, FB Alec Ingold, Gerrid Doaks, ZaQuandre White
Analysis: This has been from start to finish perhaps the toughest position to handicap because the Dolphins have more viable candidates than roster spots, but also because there's little separation behind Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert. One of the big questions is whether the Dolphins will carry three or four halfbacks, along with fullback Alec Ingold, and the X-factor here is that the Dolphins could carry one or two halfbacks on the practice squad who probably wouldn't be far off from the last players on the roster. We're going to stick with our projection here that the Dolphins will keep three halfbacks, and the battle for the final spot will come down to Myles Gaskin or Salvon Ahmed.
The 53-man roster projection (4): Chase Edmonds, Raheem Mostert, Myles Gaskin, FB Alec Ingold
How we did: Missed Salvon Ahmed
In retrospect: The decision to cut Michel seemed to surprise a lot of analysts, but the truth is he didn't do anything in training camp to merit giving him a roster spot. In the end, where we missed was in thinking the Dolphins would keep only three halfbacks when they ended up keeping four, though it proves there wasn't much difference between Gaskin and Ahmed.
WIDE RECEIVER
On the roster before final cuts: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Cedrick Wilson Jr., Trent Sherfield, Preston Williams, Lynn Bowden Jr., Erik Ezukanma, River Cracraft, Mohamed Sanu, Braylon Sanders
Analysis: Nothing has changed here in terms of the big picture, which means the battle at this decision will come down to whether anybody can snatch a sixth spot because the first five look borderline locked in. Hill, Waddle and Wilson are locks, Ezukanma will make the team as a rookie fourth-round pick (he had it made even before his huge game against the Raiders) and Sherfield has experience as a gunner and has experience with Mike McDaniel from their time in San Francisco. This has looked for a few weeks from this vantage point as a battle between Lynn Bowden Jr. and River Cracraft for the final spot, if there is one to be had, and Cracraft certainly had the upper hand in the preseason finale, even though Bowden had that 39-yard touchdown. It still says here the Dolphins would love it if they could get a draft pick for Bowden because Cracraft looks like the choice.
The 53-man roster projection (6): Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Cedrick Wilson Jr., Trent Sherfield, Erik Ezukanma, River Cracraft
How we did: River Cracraft did not make it.
In retrospect: Well, we got it right about the top five wide receivers here and we got it right that Bowden and Williams weren't going to make the 53-man roster despite having the name recognition. It says here we might not have seen the last of Cracraft.
TIGHT END
On the roster before final cuts: Mike Gesicki, Durham Smythe, Cethan Carter, Hunter Long, Tanner Conner
Analysis: The big chatter here is what will happen with Gesicki and whether the Dolphins actually would go ahead and trade him. As we explored in a recent story, it simply doesn't make sense for the Dolphins to just trade him for the sake of trading him in light of all the moves the team made in the offseason to go all out to win and help Tagovailoa. So it says here he stays, and then there's little suspense at the position because Carter will make the team as a backup fullback/special teams contributor. Don't be surprised if Conner, who impressed before being sidelined with a knee injury, winds up going on injured reserve.
The 53-man roster projection: (4) Mike Gesicki, Durham Smythe, Hunter Long, Cethan Carter
How we did: We did not have Tanner Conner.
In retrospect: We did mention the Dolphins really liked Conner, right? He still was wearing a knee brace at practice Tuesday and it probably wouldn't be a surprise if he still ended up on IR, but now that it would be after the cuts to 53, it wouldn't sideline him for the entire season anymore.
OFFENSIVE LINE
On the roster before final cuts: C/G Michael Deiter, G Robert Jones, G Solomon Kindley, G/T Robert Hunt, G/T Austin Jackson, OL Connor Williams, T Terron Armstead, T Larnel Coleman, G/T Liam Eichenberg, T Greg Little, T Adam Pankey, T Kion Smith, T Kellen Diesch, T Blaise Andries
Analysis: Tackle Greg Little finally got his chance to play in the preseason and Mike McDaniel praised his work the following day, and maybe that said something about his chances of making the 53-man roster, particularly considering fellow backup tackle Larnel Coleman has no NFL regular season experience. This certainly is a position where the Dolphins could add a veteran through the waiver wire.
The 53-man roster projection (9): Terron Armstead, Connor Williams, Robert Hunt, Austin Jackson, Liam Eichenberg, Michael Deiter, Solomon Kindley, Greg Little, Robert Jones
How we did: Solomon Kindley did not make it.
In retrospect: The only place we missed here was including Kindley, who we didn't have in our original 53-man roster projection but who got better as camp and preseason unfolded. It says here Kindley will be in the NFL in 2022, even if it won't be with the Dolphins.
DEFENSIVE LINEMEN
On the roster before final cuts: DE Emmanuel Ogbah, DT Raekwon Davis, DT John Jenkins, DT Benito Jones, DT Zach Sieler, DT Christian Wilkins, DL Ben Stille, DT Niles Scott
Analysis: The first five in this group has been pretty solid since the start of camp once Adam Butler was out of the equation. Because the Dolphins have some edge defenders who could line up as defensive ends in a pinch, there's no requirement to keep six defensive linemen.
The 53-man roster projection (5): Raekwon Davis, Christian Wilkins, Zach Sieler, Emmanuel Ogbah, John Jenkins
How we did: Nailed it.
In retrospect: There was a case to be made here for Stille, who looked good as a rookie free agent, but we decided to go here with the proven commodities and ended up nailing this position.
LINEBACKERS
On the roster before final cuts: Darius Hodge, Jaelan Phillips, Brennan Scarlett, Andrew Van Ginkel, Jerome Baker, Sam Eguavoen, Calvin Munson, Duke Riley, Elandon Roberts, Channing Tindall, Cameron Goode, Melvin Ingram III, Porter Gustin, Trey Flowers
Analysis: While he's technically not yet on the active roster, we have to include Trey Flowers here because he will be on there after agreeing to terms Sunday — and he will make the 53-man roster. Brennan Scarlett very well could end up on IR after missing the last few weeks of practice. Goode has shown too much promise in camp, from this vantage point, to risk exposing him to waivers and he lands the final roster spot here among several players with NFL experience.
The 53-man roster projection (9): Jaelan Phillips, Andrew Van Ginkel, Jerome Baker, Elandon Roberts, Channing Tindall, Melvin Ingram III, Cameron Goode, Duke Riley, Trey Flowers
How we did: We missed Sam Eguavoen, who made the 53 instead of Cameron Goode.
In retrospect: We had the number right at this position, but thought Goode deserved a spot on the roster based on what he showed this summer, though Eguavoen does have proven special teams ability and maybe that made the difference in the end.
DEFENSIVE BACKS
On the roster before final cuts: CB Xavien Howard, CB Noah Igbinoghene, CB Byron Jones, CB Nik Needham, DB Elijah Campbell, DB Keion Crossen, DB D'Angelo Ross, DB Quincy Wilson, S Clayton Fejedelem, S Jevon Holland, S Brandon Jones, S Eric Rowe, CB Elijah Hamilton, CB Kader Kohou, S Verone McKinley III
Analysis: The biggest question here is whether Byron Jones will begin the season on Reserve/PUP, where he wouldn't count against the 53 but would have to miss the first four games, or on the active roster and the feeling here is that he'll be on the 53. The Dolphins have promising rookie free agents here with Kohou and McKinley, but tough decisions will have to be made, and we gave the final two spots in the secondary to Campbell and Wilson.
The 53-man roster projection (10): Xavien Howard, Byron Jones, Brandon Jones, Jevon Holland, Noah Igbinoghene, Keion Crossen, Eric Rowe, Nik Needham, Elijah Campbell, DB Quincy Wilson
How we did: We missed Clayton Fejedelem and Kader Kohou, who made it instead of Quincy Wilson and Byron Jones (who went on Reserve/PUP).
In retrospect: This was a really tough position all along because it was so tight for the final spots, and then there was the Byron Jones situation complicating everything. With Kohou, while he showed great promise all summer, in the end we thought the Dolphins would prefer experience at this position.
SPECIALISTS
On the roster before final cuts: K Jason Sanders, P Thomas Morstead, LS Blake Ferguson
Analysis: Whatever chances Hofrichter had of unseating the veteran Morstead probably disappeared with his 28-yard punt out of bounds against Las Vegas and the suspense all ended when he was waived three days after the game.
The 53-man roster projection (3): K Jason Sanders, P Thomas Morstead, LS Blake Ferguson
How we did: Nailed it.
In retrospect: This wasn't difficult.
