Dolphins National TV Darlings ... And Other Schedule Notes
The NFL unveiled eight of the 272 games in the 2023 regular season Wednesday, and it was the Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs who were in the spotlight.
Sure, the Jacksonville Jaguars joined them in being featured in two of the seven games announced, but that's because they're playing back-to-back games in London and all five international games were going to be announced at the same time.
For the Dolphins and Chiefs, though, their two games included the one they'll play against each other in Germany along with one other national TV game — or stand-alone game, if you prefer.
For the Dolphins, that second game was the inaugural Black Friday matchup against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium on Nov. 23 at 3 p.m. ET. And for the Chiefs, it was a late-afternoon home game against the Cincinnati Bengals on Dec. 31.
Before the full schedule is unveiled Thursday night, the NFL will announce the kickoff game and that also will involve the Chiefs as the home team by virtue of their status as defending Super Bowl champions.
But when the full NFL schedule is unveiled, expect the Dolphins to continue to find themselves in the spotlight.
THE PRIME-TIME POSSIBILITIES FOR THE DOLPHINS
Because they already have been scheduled for two national TV games, we wouldn't expect the maximum six prime-time games for Miami, but they could end up with that number of stand-alone games in that inaugural schedule.
That would be the most for the Dolphins in recent memory, topping the five they got in 2017 when they were coming off their playoff appearance under then-coach Adam Gase.
That year, the Dolphins had five national TV games — four in prime time and a London game against the New Orleans Saints.
What we have to hope is there's no repeat of that 2017 schedule when three of the prime-time games were in consecutive weeks — Thursday night at Baltimore, Sunday night at home against the Raiders, Monday night at Carolina.
In terms of potential prime-time opponents, the Chiefs obviously are out and we'd expect the Jets also no longer would be an option because it's rare for two games between division rivals get the national TV treatment.
But it's not like the Dolphins don't have other appealing matchups, starting with the Bills at home or away, the Cowboys at home, and the Eagles and Chargers on the road.
The Dolphins and Chargers battled in prime time last season after their game at SoFi Stadium was flexed, but the anticipated shootout between Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert didn't really materialize in a game L.A. won 23-17 — though it did feature Tyreek Hill's wacky touchdown after he picked up a loose ball following a Jeff Wilson Jr. fumble.
The Dolphins ended up playing four prime-time games last season, but went only 1-3 in those games, defeating the Steelers at home, but losing at Cincinnati, at L.A. and at Buffalo in that great Saturday night battle in December.
TUA AND PRIME TIME
That game at Buffalo, which ended up on Saturday night after initially being initially one of five Week 15 matchups scheduled as TBD, was as good a loss as could be — if that makes sense.
The reason is that on the same night Tagovailoa cleared two more hurdles in his ascent to franchise quarterback status.
First, he showed he could deliver a strong performance in cold weather. Second, and this might have flown more under the radar, he delivered his first strong outing in prime time.
Before that, Tagovailoa had started five games in prime time, with the Dolphins winning two of those games, but in 2020 at Las Vegas, he was pulled in favor of Ryan Fitzpatrick at halftime and in 2021 at New Orleans, the Saints were missing about half their team because of injuries and COVID and the offense was lackluster despite a 20-3 victory.
Last season, there was the nightmarish Thursday night game at Cincinnati, a struggle in the Sunday night win against Pittsburgh in his first game back and the disappointing performance against the Chargers.
The hope is that the performance against Buffalo was a sign of things to come in 2023 and beyond.
AVOIDING ARROWHEAD STADIUM
We mentioned in an earlier story how the Dolphins caught a break in having their game at Kansas City scheduled instead for Frankfurt Stadium in Germany, and the proof would be in the opening line.
Based on most sportsbook, the Chiefs will open as 5.5-point favorites over the Dolphins; the spread would have been at least a touchdown had the game been played at Arrowhead Stadium.
"The worth of home field to NFL spreads is a prickly subject," said Jason Logan, senior industry analyst at Covers.com. "It’s been long considered to be worth a field goal to the spread, but recent investigations have shown it’s far less than that. Like maybe a point, depending on the venue, weather, travel and situational spot.
"However, a place like Arrowhead is one of those rare stadiums that does give the host an advantage, due to crowd noise and chillier weather come the winter. I’d put the home-field edge at two or maybe 2.5 points, so that -5.5 neutral site spread in Germany would likely be a Chiefs -7.5 or -8 in Arrowhead."
