Breaking Down Some Dire Dolphins Projections for 2026

Turn the lights out, the season already is over for the Miami Dolphins.

Ok, maybe that’s a step or two too far, but if you read the projections from ESPN’s Mike Clay, the prognosis for the 2026 version of the Dolphins will have you photoshopping aqua jerseys onto Arch Manning as the Dolphins as he projects the Dolphins to finish significantly worse than they did a season ago.

Projections are simply that, no matter how much information goes into them. The Dolphins could take the world by surprise this year, or they could prove Clay right.

If they do the latter, Clay paints a grim picture for how the first season under Jeff Hafley could go, and Dolphins fans could be in for a long season.

Rankings

There are 32 teams in the NFL. Clay’s projections have the Dolphins ranked 32nd in both offense and defense for the upcoming season, which has them ranked overall, you guessed it, 32nd.

Clearly, Clay does not believe in the additions made on the offensive side of the ball led by Malik Willis.

Clay has Willis projected to throw 13 touchdowns to 11 interceptions while starting all 17 games, and adding an extra 537 yards on the ground.

For comparison’s sake, Willis ran for 261 yards in 11 games played in Green Bay, which was not as focused on running the quarterback as the Dolphins might be with Willis and De’Von Achane roaming in their backfield.

Willis threw for 972 yards, six touchdowns, and zero interceptions in his 11 games in Green Bay, which includes three starts.

Despite those numbers that earned Willis a big deal, for now at least, Clay is not buying it.

Willis may prove not to be worth the contract the Dolphins gave him this offseason, but they hardly have the worst quarterback situation in football.

The New York Jets graded out similarly to the Dolphins, and are set to start Geno Smith to begin the season. The Arizona Cardinals have a significantly worse quarterback situation than that of Miami’s.

If nothing else, the Dolphins have the potential for upside at the quarterback position. Geno Smith, Jacoby Brissett and Gardner Minshew are the quarterbacks under consideration for the Jets and Cardinals, respectively.

That situation is significantly worse than what the Dolphins have to offer with Willis under center.

Win-Loss Record

At the end of the day, fans are not going to care about stats as much as they do what is in the win column. Did the Dolphins make enough progress in their first year under Jeff Hafley to believe the team is set up sustained success?

Well, if Clay’s projections are to be believed, be prepared for another long season in the sunshine state.

Despite turmoil at head coach and quarterback last season, the Dolphins were able to finesse their way to seven wins before firing Mike McDaniel and releasing Tua Tagovailoa, who they benched late in the regular season.

Despite what should be an improvement at both head coach and quarterback, the Dolphins are projected to only win 2.5 games using Clay’s model, which would have them on the clock with the top pick in the draft once the regular season came to a close.

Furthermore, the model does not think much of Miami’s chances to compete through a lot of their schedule in 2026.

The highest percentage chance they’re given to win in any matchup this season come in both games against the New York Jets, and a road game against the Las Vegas Raiders.

According to the model, the Dolphins have a 33 percent chance of knocking off the Jets at home, and a 20 percent chance of beating them when they go to the meadowlands.

They have a 27 percent chance to beat the Las Vegas Raiders, the team that was the worst in football last season and selected a rookie quarterback with the first overall pick.

Forget the percentages and look at what we saw a season ago. The Jets were one of the worst teams in football and won only three games. They went from Justin Fields to Geno Smith at quarterback, which is a marginal upgrade at best based on what we saw a season ago.

The Dolphins cannot possibly be more dysfunctional than they were a season ago with a new regime that, if nothing else, comes from a place that has been the model of stability for the better half of three decades.

The Jets? Well, they’ve been the opposite of that, and there’s no proof at this point that Aaron Glenn is capable of leading a franchise as the head coach.

The Raiders made a lot of moves this offseason, but will they be starting Kirk Cousins or a rookie quarterback in Fernando Mendoza when they face off against the Dolphins?

Miami’s improvements, even if they were minimal, should give them a better chance of winning those three games than the high mark of 33 percent.

Final Outlook

At this point in the offseason, even the most passionate followers of the Dolphins would tell you that the 2026 season is the first of what they hope will be an expedited rebuild.

Jon-Eric Sullivan and Jeff Hafley are hoping to rebuild this team in their image for what they hope will be sustained success. That will not come without some bumps, however, as the Dolphins did lose some high-pedigree contributors in Jaylen Waddle and Bradley Chubb this offseason.

There is a youth movement taking place in Miami this season.

Will the Dolphins surpass the seven-win mark they hit a season ago? Maybe not. What does seem fair to say is that Clay’s outlook is overly grim. The Dolphins should be able to run the football, and be well coached on the defensive side of the ball.

That is enough to keep enough games close, and potentially steal them from teams that are superior to them talent wise.

The Carolina Panthers won the NFC South with a similar play style a season ago.

The Dolphins may not win the AFC East, but they almost certainly are not going to be receiving the top pick in next April’s draft.

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