Dolphins Saturday Mailbag: Examining the Lack of September Home Games

Part 1 of a schedule release weekend Miami Dolphins On SI mailbag:

From Jon Russell:

Hey Alain. Would the NFL schedule make more sense if they did another re-alignment? Let’s say the AFC East consists of Jets, Dolphins, Patriots and either Falcons or Bucs. Maybe Bills go AFC North or NFC North? Wouldn’t this improve scheduling at least logistically?

Hey Jon, I haven’t heard a peep about realignment or expansion in so long, I can’t remember the last time it came up. Bottom line is I wouldn’t hold my breath over it. The NFL basically is printing money these days, so they’re not about to mess with things. The Dolphins had their shot at a geographically more desirable division in 2002 when they could have joined the inaugural AFC South with Houston, Jacksonville and Tennessee, but they declined because they wanted to stay in the AFC East. Now, I think that ship has sailed.

From Lloyd Heilbrunn:

The Fans' conspiracy theory says the reason we don't get many September and October 1 o'clock home games anymore is because of the Bills losing and subsequent complaint about the heat, a couple of years ago. True? If not, what other reason do you see?

Hey Lloyd, not sure it was so the Bills complaining as much as the NFL watching all their players who had heat-related issues in that 2022 game. And, because I have to say this again for many folks, this is the biggest home field advantage in the NFL, those afternoon home games in September when there’s like a 25-degree difference between the two sidelines.

From Jorge boyd:

Hi Alain, are the people saying The Dolphins are going to have a poor record because the schedule is tough or because the roster is weak and still needs more good pieces in order to compete?

Hey Jorge, how about yes? It’s basically a combination of both things because I don’t think that even with a schedule that would be viewed as “easy” there would be high expectations for the Dolphins. This is what happens when you get rid of a half-dozen big-name players and carry more than $180 million of cap space for players no longer around. What’s left is a roster filled with really young players or others on one-year contracts who are looking to get their career back on track.

From Mark Rodriguez:

Do you see any advantages for the Dolphins because they do not have any prime time games?

Hey Mark, the one advantage is that it keeps the Dolphins on a Sunday-only schedule, so they don’t have to worry about short weeks with a quick bounce-back time. But it doesn’t even come into play in 2026 based on how the NFL put together their schedule and the number of teams they’ll be playing coming off Thursday or Friday games.

From David:

Think the lack of 1 pm sept home games lately is on purpose?

Hey David, yeah, I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the Dolphins have had just one September home game since that 2022 game against Buffalo. The question now is whether that will change in upcoming seasons.

From Sal:

We look at teams on how they’re constructed on paper…. How often would you say that translates onto the field? How many times have you been surprised by how a season ended up vs. how you originally predicted?

Hey Sal, that’s a very good question and I’d say more often than not you have a pretty good idea of what kind of success that team will have. You also can look for certain vibes leading up to a season, like last year with the Ramsey foolishness or the year before with all the contract extensions that felt like a team that got too big for its britches (for lack of a better term). For the teams that overachieved, the 2008 season wasn’t 100 percent unexpected because the Dolphins added a lot of solid veterans in the offseason before seeing Chad Pennington fall into their laps in August. I’d say maybe 2016 was the one that perhaps was a surprise, though we shouldn’t forget that offensive line consisted of four first-round picks (Albert, Tunsil, Pouncey, James), so there was reason for optimism and to expect it to lead the way.

From Kevin Craig:

Best high butts in Dolphins history? Ronnie Brown?

Hey Kevin, LOL, this question is a result of a comment I made on the Dolphins Collective and the All Dolphins Podcast where I remarked that rookie sixth-round pick DJ Campbell is high-cut. I have to be honest, I haven’t really kept a tally of high butts on Dophins players, but since you mention him, yes, Ronnie Brown does come to mind. You’ll have to forgive if I don’t want to spend more time thinking about former players and how high their butt was.

From Thee Dolphins Dum Dum:

So the schedule is out. Please correct me if I’m wrong but the Dolphins will likely be underdogs in every game this year according to Vegas. Maybe it will be a pick ‘em at home against the Jets. The last 6 weeks are particularly brutal with all 6 teams being in the playoffs last year and 3 games possibly in cold weather. What games are you looking forward to seeing the most, and why?

Hey Dana, the two that stand out for me are the opener against the Raiders because it’ll be our first exposure to these new-look Dolphins. And then the other one is the season finale, but only if there’s something at stake for New England (I can’t imagine the playoffs will be on the line for Miami in that game). The reason there would be to see the kind of progress the Dolphins have made over the course of the season.

From Jake McVay:

Hey Alain, With expectations so low for this team, do you see this as a way for the organization to Hafley and the organization to make this team mentally strong? There are advantages if this is handled well and leadership is strong.

Hey Jake, I understand the question and there’s merit to it, but I’m not buying the idea of “making a team mentally strong.” The low expectations extend to the players themselves and some of them will use that as extra fuel, though as Cameron Wake once said, if you need something to motivate you when you’re in the NFL, something is wrong with you.

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