How the NFL Made the Dolphins' Tough Schedule Even Tougher

The Miami Dolphins always were going to have a tough schedule in 2026, whether based on each opponent's won-loss record from last year or their projections for next season.

But somehow the NFL schedule-makers managed to make that schedule even more challenging.

This is about the rest advantage for each NFL team in 2026, and the Dolphins are among those teams that come into the negative, with a minus-6 figure — meaning their opponents combined will have six more days between games than Miami.

But even that figure is misleading.

INSIDE THE REST NUMBERS

One chart making the rounds on social media shows how many times each team in 2026 will be facing an opponent coming off a bye, and the Dolphins are among the 15 with a nice 0 next to their name.

But that's offset by the fact the Dolphins, who have nothing but Sunday games on their schedule, will be facing three teams coming off a mini-bye off a Thursday night game.

So that minus-6 rest ratio for the Dolphins doesn't look as good when countered by the fact the Dolphins will have five games with a rest disadvantage against only one where they'll have the bigger gap between games.

That one rest advantage game will be the Week 7 matchup against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium when Miami will be coming off its bye and the Jets will be coming off a game at New England the previous Sunday.

But the Dolphins have three games against teams coming off a Thursday night matchup, therefore a three-day rest disadvantage each time.

Those games will start Week 2 against the San Francisco 49ers, who are playing on Thursday night in their opener, though that game actually will be Friday morning in Australia — so the rest advantage is a bit diminished.

The Dolphins will face New England in Week 8 after the Patriots after they played at Chicago in the Week 7 Thursday night game. And then the Dolphins will face the L.A. Chargers in Mike McDaniel's return to Hard Rock Stadium in Week 16 after the Chargers play the Week 15 Thursday night game against the 49ers.

The Dolphins also will face two teams coming off Friday games — the Denver Broncos in Week 13 and the Buffalo Bills in Week 17.

If that weren't bad enough, the Dolphins' season finale at New England also could put them at a rest disadvantage because the Patriots' Week 17 home game against Denver is among four scheduled as TBD, with two of the four being chosen to become a Saturday game.

So, yeah, not ideal.

It's one thing that the games against the 49ers, Patriots, Broncos, Chargers and Bills will match them against 2025 playoff teams, but then the degree of difficulty goes up because of the rest disadvantage.

THE REST DISADVANTAGE DIFFERENCE

One question that is fair to ask is whether rest advantage is a big deal, and for the 2025 Dolphins at least, it most definitely was.

Unless it was pure coincidence, the Dolphins' 7-10 overall record last season included a 3-0 mark when they had a rest advantage against an 0-2 mark with a rest disadvantage.

The three victories included the inspiring 17-point handling of the Buffalo Bills when the Dolphins were coming off a Thursday night game, as well as their wins against the New York Jets at home and the New Orleans Saints.

The two losses came against the Carolina Panthers when the Dolphins were coming off their Monday night win against the Jets, along with the loss against the Cincinnati Bengals when they were coming off their Monday night loss against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

But in 2024, the rest advantage made zero difference.

The Dolphins were 1-3 in games where they had more rest coming in than their opponent, and 3-1 when they were at a rest disadvantage.

So maybe there is no correlation.

All things considered, though, it's pretty obvious the Dolphins would be better off with a 2026 schedule that didn't have so many rest disadvantage games.

Add us as a preferred source on Google