Breaking Down Dolphins Strength of Schedule Numbers

There were five teams in the 2019 playoffs who were not there the previous season — Buffalo, Tennessee, Green Bay, Minnesota and San Francisco — and that's the biggest argument not to take the ever-popular strength of schedule too seriously when it comes to making predictions.

Based purely on the numbers, the Miami Dolphins have the third-toughest schedule in the NFL in 2020 based on their opponents' combined winning percentage of .523 last season.

The numbers are greatly influenced by the fact the schedule rotation has the AFC East teams' interconference games in 2020 being against the NFC West, which was the best division in the NFL last year.

The 49ers (13-3), Seahawks (11-5), Rams (9-7) and Cardinals (5-10-1) combined to go 38-25-1 in 2019, which was four more victories than any other division. The NFC Central had the second-best overall record at 34-29-1 and the AFC East was third at 34-30.

The Dolphins do have an advantage over their AFC East counterparts because their last-place finish gave them games against the last-place finishers in the AFC North and AFC South, and those are the only two games different than what the rest of the division has to face.

So the Dolphins will be facing Cincinnati and Jacksonville for their two non-common opponents among AFC East team, while New England will have Baltimore and Houston; Buffalo will have Pittsburgh and Tennessee; and the Jets will have Cleveland and Indianapolis.

Another way of looking at this schedule is that the Dolphins will play seven games against teams that made the playoffs in 2019 — New England twice, Buffalo twice, Kansas City, San Francisco and Seattle — and that's the same number as the Patriots. The Bills will play five games against teams that made the playoffs last season, and the Jets will play six.

Here's how the 2020 schedule breaks down in terms of division games, non-division games, and overall (as broken down by AllCardinals):

DIVISION

2019 Winning percentage of division rivals:

1. Arizona .688

2. Detroit .646

3. L.A. Rams .615

4. Miami .604

5. Cincinnati .583

6. Seattle .573

7. Carolina .563

N.Y. Jets .563

9. Chicago .552

10. Jacksonville .542

L.A. Chargers .542

12. San Francisco .531

13. Atlanta .521

Indianapolis .521

Tampa Bay .521

16. Minnesota .510

17. Buffalo .500

Cleveland .500

Denver .500

Las Vegas .500

21. Tennessee .479

22. Houston .458

New England .458

Pittsburgh .458

25. Green Bay .448

26. Washington .438

27. N.Y. Giants .417

28. Kansas City .396

New Orleans .396

30. Baltimore .333

31. Dallas .333

32. Philadelphia .313

OUT OF DIVISION

2019 Winning percentage of out of conference and out of division opponents:

1. Philadelphia .591

2. New England .584

3. Kansas City .563

4. Houston .553

5. New Orleans .547

6. Buffalo .541

7. Green Bay .538

8. Dallas .534

9. Atlanta .528

10. San Francisco .525

11. N.Y. Giants .522

12. Denver .519

Minnesota .519

14. N.Y. Jets .516

15. Tennessee .509

16. Baltimore .500

17. Las Vegas .494

18. Indianapolis .491

Tampa Bay .491

20. Miami .484

21. Chicago .481

Washington .481

23. Seattle .469

24. Jacksonville .466

25. Carolina .463

L.A. Chargers .463

27. L.A. Rams .456

Pittsburgh .456

29. Detroit .453

30. Cleveland .438

31. Arizona .416

32. Cincinnati .413

OVERALL

Combined 2019 winning percentage for all 16 opponents.

1. New England .537

2. N.Y. Jets .533

3. Miami .529

4. San Francisco .527

5. Atlanta .525

Buffalo .525

Detroit .525

8. Arizona .518

Houston .518

10. L.A. Rams .516

Minnesota .516

12. Denver .512

13. Chicago .508

Seattle .508

15. Green Bay .504

16. Indianapolis .502

Tampa Bay .502

18. Carolina .500

Kansas City .500

20. Tennessee .498

21. Las Vegas .496

22. Jacksonville .494

23. L.A. Chargers .492

24. New Orleans .490

25. Philadelphia .486

26. N.Y. Giants .482

27. Cincinnati .477

28. Washington .465

29. Cleveland .461

30. Dallas .459

31. Pittsburgh .457

32. Baltimore .438