Evaluating the Idea of Dolphins Trading for First Overall Pick

If you weren’t already invested in the Miami Dolphins’ 2026 NFL draft strategy, then let their blowout loss to the Cincinnati Bengals serve as a wake-up call.

The Dolphins have a lot of needs to fill to become competitive, and perhaps none of them is more important than quarterback. Tua Tagovailoa has been benched, and Quinn Ewers is probably more of a backup.

That’s all great, but the Dolphins are picking 10th in the current draft order and can't get higher than seventh, meaning it’s doubtful they’ll get a chance to draft a franchise-changing quarterback. However, Pro Football Focus’ latest mock draft has the Dolphins making a surprise trade-up to No. 1 overall and selecting Indiana’s (and South Florida native) Fernando Mendoza.

Before that, agent Drew Rosenhaus brought up the idea of the Dolphins trading up to take Mendoza during his weekly segment on South Florida TV station WSVN.

Let’s take a look at the merits behind the deal and whether the Dolphins can and should explore it in real life.

Breaking Down Dolphins' Hypothetical Trade for No. 1 Overall

Does the Trade Compensation Work?

For this exercise, we should set Mendoza aside and look at the actual roadblocks of making a deal and whether it makes sense from a value perspective. We’ll have all offseason to evaluate Mendoza, and he’s about to play the biggest games of his career in the College Football Playoffs.

PFF had the Dolphins sending the No. 10 and 44th picks in the 2026 draft, along with their first- and second-round picks in 2027, to the New York Giants for No. 1 overall.

That might seem like a lot, but it’s actually somewhat tame compared to some recent examples. The No. 1 pick has been traded twice since 2016, and both of those deals included more assets.

The most recent was the Carolina Panthers’ trade with the Chicago Bears ahead of the 2023 NFL draft. Carolina sent the same package PFF had Miami pony up, plus Pro Bowl-caliber receiver D.J. Moore.

Before that, it was the Los Angeles Rams trading up with the Tennessee Titans for Jared Goff in 2016. The Rams were 15th in the order (Carolina was ninth), so they gave up much more.

Los Angeles traded their first-, two second-, and third-round picks from that draft, along with their 2017 first-round and third-round picks.

The Panthers’ trade is probably a better framework since the Dolphins are picking 10th after Week 16, but there’s a chance Miami picks later than that if they win one of their final two games, putting them in Rams territory.

If Miami is forced to do the Panthers’ package, it would still have three third-round selections to build around Mendoza. That would be a unique scenario for a team to give up so much and still have three top 100 picks, even if they’re late in the order.

So, from the Dolphins’ perspective, the compensation does make some sense. The real question is with the Giants.

New York has Jaxson Dart, so it’s probably out of the QB market, meaning an all-out bidding war could start for No. 1 overall. Miami’s competition would be teams much higher than them in the draft order, like the Cleveland Browns, New York Jets and Las Vegas Raiders.

The Browns and Jets have more first-round picks to offer, and the Giants wouldn’t have to move back as far. That would skyrocket the price for Miami and likely leave them on the outside looking in.

Is Trading This Many Assets for a QB a Good Idea?

This is the most important question. Say Miami does lose out, gets some help, and picks firmly inside the top 10. And for whatever reason, they don’t have much competition for the No. 1 overall pick.

In that implausible scenario, it’s absolutely worth it for Miami to trade up to No. 1 overall if it believes the quarterback it’s drafting will be a transcendent talent.

A lot has gone wrong for Miami during the last two-plus decades, but not having a genuine franchise quarterback has been one of the most significant issues.

In today’s NFL, the Dolphins can build whatever roster they want. Without at least an above-average passer to lead the way, their path to the Super Bowl will always be much harder than their competition.

If the Dolphins think someone like Mendoza is that player, and they’re within striking distance of getting him, then it’s worth exploring a deal like the one PFF laid out.

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