Examining the Tua-Herbert Debate Then and Now

The fifth and sixth overall picks in the 2020 NFL draft will face each other for the fourth time in Week 6

Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) and Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) shake hands after the game at SoFi Stadium in 2022. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The Miami Dolphins will be facing the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday, which will be the fourth career matchup between Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert, two quarterbacks who like it or not always will be linked.

That's simply inevitable not only because they were selected one after the other near the top of the 2020 NFL draft, but more significantly for the Dolphins because that fifth overall pick represented the first major decision that was going to shape their rebuilding project.

It remains to this day the most important decision.

Five years later, it's really difficult to suggest that the Dolphins got it right. But it's also not fair to suggest that going with Tua is the reason the rebuild has been mostly a failure — some fans might want to call it a total failure because that elusive playoff win is still missing, but the team did get back-to-back playoff appearances for the first time in 20 years.

Through their first five-plus seasons, Tagovailoa has a slightly career passer rating and the Dolphins winning percentage in Tua's starts is higher than that of the Chargers with Herbert, though numbers don't tell the whole story because of surrounding personnel, coaching and other external circumstances.

This season, for example, Tua has a higher passer rating as he's on track to top the 100-mark for the fourth consecutive year, but he came up painfully short at clutch time in the losses against New England in Week 2, Buffalo in Week 3 and most recently Carolina in Week 5.

And, yes, he's been operating behind a sub-par, injury-riddled offensive line.

But the same can be said about Herbert, and the Chargers QB clinched a Week 1 win against Kansas City in Brazil with a clutch third-down scramble and two weeks later engineered a comeback against the Denver Broncos that was highlighted by a pretty sick touchdown pass while rolling to his left with a defender smacking him in the facemask as he threw the ball.

It was the kind of play we normally see from the acknowledged big four of NFL QBs — Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow.

The Dolphins and Chargers each have gone to the playoffs twice since that 2020 draft, though Tua had to miss one of the postseason games. Neither of them has a postseason victory (understanding that W-L really isn't a QB stat).

In terms of personal accolades, each has been selected to the Pro Bowl once, and Herbert has a 2-1 edge when it comes to finishing in the top 10 in the AP MVP voting, and he's been voted team MVP four times in five seasons, while Tua has yet to win the honor with the Dolphins.

The biggest difference, though, might be right now, five years after the fact where Herbert is being viewed as a biggest reason the Chargers potentially could make a run at the Super Bowl sooner rather than later, whereas the conversation around Tua is whether and/or the Dolphins should move on from him.

With Herbert, the Chargers appear set at quarterback for at least another half-dozen years and we know that's certainly not the case with Tua and the Dolphins.

Bottom line here is we can debate who's been the better quarterback so far, but there's really no question as to which team has the better starting quarterback situation right now.

THE BIGGER MISTAKES

That said, Tagovailoa is very far from the biggest reason the Dolphins rebuilding project is about to be replaced by another — even beyond what GM Chris Grier termed this year as a "reset."

We can start with that whole 2020 draft when the Dolphins had three first-round picks for the first time in franchise history and failed — badly — to maximize those picks.

By now, every Dolphins fans probably has heard how instead of Austin Jackson at 18 and Noah Igbinoghene at 30, the Dolphins could have had Justin Jefferson and either Jonathan Taylor or Antoine Winfield.

Ouch!

The Dolphins had a total of nine picks in the first two rounds of 2020 and 2021 and only two of them have earned a Pro Bowl invitation so far — Tua for his 2023 season and Robert Hunt, who got it as a member of the Carolina Panthers last year after he left as a free agent.

That's not good enough. Especially when you have to make up for flat-out draft busts such as Liam Eichenberg, Channing Tindall and Cam Smith.

How could things have turned out differently with Herbert instead of Tua? Who knows. That's pure speculation.

Who knows, maybe the Dolphins take Penei Sewell with the sixth overall pick in the 2021 draft instead of Jaylen Waddle, who's been a very good NFL wide receiver but not nearly as impactful as one of the best offensive linemen in the league.

It certainly doesn't matter now.

What matters is the game Sunday, and this is where we point out the Dolphins have a 2-1 record in games that have matched Tua against Herbert, the last one being maybe Tua's best performance in the NFL, the 36-34 comeback thrilled at SoFi Stadium in the 2023 season opener.

Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) throws the ball against the Los Angeles Chargers in the second half at SoFi Stadium in 2023. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Who knows, maybe Tua has another game like that in store for Sunday. And if he does, then for one day at least the Dolphins can look back at that 2020 fifth overall selection with a sense of validation.