Exploring Whether Dolphins Should Take Big Gamble on Anthony Richardson

The Miami Dolphins’ new leadership is at the 2026 NFL Combine this week, and perhaps no event on the offseason calendar sparks more conversations about trades and player acquisitions.

So, it’s not surprising that ESPN Colts reporter Stephen Holder reported on Thursday that the team has given QB Anthony Richardson permission to seek a trade. This was always expected after Richardson clearly fell out of favor last offseason.

As we’ve covered extensively, the Dolphins could look to the trade market for a quarterback this offseason. The NFL draft and free agency don’t offer many appealing options.

Now that Richardson is officially on the market, let’s explore whether the Dolphins should attempt to trade for the fourth-overall pick.

Why Dolphins Should Trade for Richardson

Let’s start with the obvious: Richardson is absurdly talented. Despite his struggles in Indianapolis, he’s got all of the arm talent and mobility you could ask for.

He can make any throw from any place on the field, and he’s got more than enough mobility to be a massive part of a team’s running game. Put that together with his 6-4, 244-pound frame, and it’s not hard to see why he went fourth overall.

There were some flashes of his ability when he played, too. Richardson’s 12.2 intended air yards per attempt led the NFL in 2024 — he’s not afraid to push the ball downfield, and he’s got the talent to back it up.

That’s the archetype the Dolphins should be taking a shot on this offseason.

The other benefit of acquiring Richardson is that the cost isn’t likely to be overly high. His value probably sits somewhere between a Day 3 pick and a Day 3 pick swap. The latter option would make Richardson essentially free, and the former is about as low cost you can get for a swing at a franchise QB.

On the money side, Richardson would essentially be on a one-year, $10.8 million deal in Miami. However, the Dolphins would only take on roughly a $5.38 million cap hit because Richardson’s $5.43 million signing bonus would be a dead cap hit for Indianapolis.

From a value perspective, it’s hard to argue with Richardson being a low-risk, high-ceiling swing at the game’s most important position.

Why the Dolphins Shouldn’t Trade for Richardson

There’s no version of this where trading for Richardson is a bad move, as long as our projected trade compensation is correct. That said, there’s a fair argument he shouldn’t be at the top of the Dolphins’ list.

For starters, Richardson has battled injuries pretty consistently. Since entering the NFL, he’s missed time due to a concussion, multiple A/C joint (shoulder), hip, back, hand, and eye injuries. In total, he’s made just 15 starts in two seasons.

While Richardson is a bigger player, his running ability is a significant part of his game. It’s fair to ask him to take fewer hits from the pocket by developing the mental part of his game, but asking him not to run would be removing one of his best qualities.

The other problem with Richardson is where he sits in his developmental journey. Because he’s missed so much time, he hasn’t gotten much of a chance to acclimate to the NFL game.

The most troubling part is his accuracy, especially on short and intermediate throws. Completion percentage is a flawed stat, but Richardson’s is just 50% across 17 appearances in three seasons. That’s just too low to ignore, and it’s backed up by his tape as well.

In his largest sample size — 11 starts in 2024 — Richardson completed just 47.7% of his passes, while throwing just eight touchdowns and 12 interceptions.

Any QB the Dolphins trade for this offseason will be flawed. If they weren’t, they wouldn’t be available. Richardson might have the longest way to go of the bunch, though.

He’s got some awful habits that are ingrained in his process. It’s fair to wonder if a coach like Shane Steichen couldn’t get Richardson to turn a corner, then why should we be confident that Bobby Slowik could?

No quarterback will carry a higher payoff than Richardson, though. If the Dolphins can even make his accuracy average, he’ll be a top-15 passer. That’s just a lot easier said than done.