Prepping for the Dolphins 2023 Schedule Release

After some uncertainty was raised by longtime NFL writer Peter King in his weekly column Monday, the 2023 regular season schedule indeed will be announced Thursday, May 11.

It is when we'll find out the date and time of every Miami Dolphins game (along with those of every other team.

Among the twists in the schedule this season is the possibility of a team appearing on Thursday Night Football more than once, the first-ever Black Friday game, the end of conference tie-ins with specific networks, and the elimination of the guarantee that each team will appear at least once in prime time (not that this will impact the Dolphins).

Based on the NFL scheduling formula, we already know the list of Dolphins opponents:

DOLPHINS 2023 HOME OPPONENTS

Buffalo Bills

New York Jets

New England Patriots

Tennessee Titans

Denver Broncos

Las Vegas Raiders

Dallas Cowboys

New York Giants

Carolina Panthers

DOLPHINS 2023 AWAY OPPONENTS

Buffalo Bills

New York Jets

New England Patriots

Baltimore Ravens

Kansas City Chiefs

Los Angeles Chargers

Philadelphia Eagles

Washington Commanders

SCHEDULE RELEASE TIDBITS

Before the full schedule gets unveiled, the NFL will release selected games as it did last year, albeit earlier back then.

At this time last year, we already had one game officially announced, the Week 2 Thursday night game between the L.A. Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs, though that was a special announcement because it involved the first-ever game to be televised on Amazon Prime.

But on May 4, 2022, eight days before the schedule announcement, the league released the five international matchup for last season — something that has yet to happen this year.

So this will be the schedule for those games that will be announced early:

-- International games, Wednesday, May 10, announced on NFL Network and ESPN.

-- Black Friday game, Wednesday, May 10, announced via Amazon.

-- Select individual games, Wednesday, May 10, announced on FOX & Friends and on CBS Mornings.

-- Select individual games, Thursday, May 11, announced on The Today Show and on Good Morning America.

All we know from the international games are that the Kansas City Chiefs and the New England Patriots will be the home team for games in Germany, and the Tennessee Titans, Jacksonville Jaguars and Buffalo Bills will be the home team for games in England.

As indicated in the list of opponents above, the Dolphins could be the opponents for three of those five games, though the NFL tends to avoid division games overseas — yes, the Dolphins were an exception one year when they faced the New York Jets in London.

As for the Kansas City home game in Germany, reports have identified the Chicago Bears as the likely opponents, though King shot down that idea in his column Monday, saying the Chiefs did not want to move that game from Arrowhead Stadium.

THE DOLPHINS AND PRIME-TIME POSSIBILITIES

The Dolphins ended up in four prime-time games in 2022, but one of those was the Week 15 matchup at Buffalo that initially was scheduled as one of five TBD games and another was the game against the Chargers that was flexed to Sunday night.

The Dolphins haven't had more than two games initially slated for prime time since 2017, which was the season after their previous playoff appearance.

So logic says, particularly since the Dolphins have an exciting offense, Miami has a good chance to match its four scheduled prime-time game of 2017, if not surpass it.

The big question, of course, is which of their games could end up on national television — because there are a LOT of appealing options.

-- Dolphins-Chiefs: Tyreek Hill goes back to Kansas City.

-- Dolphins-Chargers: Tua Tagovailoa-Justin Herbert rematch (though that matchup produced a fairly non-entertaining battle last season).

-- Dolphins-Bills: The three matchups between the teams last season were highly entertaining affairs decided by two, three and three points.

-- Dolphins-Jets: This, of course, is the Aaron Rodgers effect.

-- Dolphins-Ravens: Who wouldn't want a prime-time rematch after the show Tua and Lamar Jackson put on in Week 2 last season.

-- Dolphins-Eagles: Tua vs. Jalen Hurts and the NFC champions.

-- Dolphins-Cowboys: Because it's the Cowboys.

And then there's the wild card of the Thursday night games, which don't necessarily feature marquee matchups.

Based on precedent, this is how we would rank the most likely Dolphins prime-time opponents: 1. Buffalo; 2. Baltimore; 3. N.Y. Jets; 4. Kansas City; 5. Philadelphia.

In terms of the season opener, the Dolphins have opened against New England (6-4) 10 times, including each of the last three years; against Buffalo (5-3) eight times; against the Jets four times (2-2); against Baltimore once (0-1); against Tennessee five times (2-3); against Denver four times (3-0-1); against Kansas City once (1-0); against the Raiders twice (0-2); against the Chargers twice (1-1); and against Washington three times (2-1).

They have never opened against Dallas, the Giants, Philadelphia or Carolina.

This is much harder to predict, but let's just say we'd be shocked if the NFL made it Dolphins-Patriots in Week 1 for a fourth straight year.

DOLPHINS-CHIEFS AND THE KICKOFF GAME POSSIBILITY

While Dolphins-Chiefs might not be happening in Germany, there's still a possibility it could happen in the NFL kickoff game.

As the winners of Super Bowl LVII, the Chiefs will get the honor of playing at home on the first Thursday night of the season, which will be Sept. 7.

Along with the Dolphins making the playoffs in 2022, Hill's return to Kansas City could make this an attractive matchup for the NFL.

But K.C. has an attractive slate of home games from which the NFL can choose, including matchups against the Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals and Philadelphia Eagles, the team it defeated in the Super Bowl.

The kickoff opener has featured the two Super Bowl participants from the previous season once — in 2016, the Denver Broncos opened with a 21-20 victory against the Carolina Panthers.

A Buffalo-K.C. matchup featuring star quarterbacks Josh Allen and Mahomes would be tempting, but let's remember that the Bills were on the road in the 2022 opener when they faced the defending Super Bowl champion Rams at SoFi Stadium and left with a 31-10 victory.

Kansas City's other home opponents for 2023 are AFC West rivals Denver, Las Vegas and the Los Angeles Chargers, along with the Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions.

In a recent "Football Morning in America" column, King made the argument against Buffalo, Cincinnati or Philadelphia as the kickoff opponent for Kansas City because the NFL might want to distribute those marquee games among its other TV partners — CBS, NBC, ESPN.

King ended that segment of his column by pointing out the logical options would be Las Vegas if the Raiders end up with Aaron Rodgers as their new QB, otherwise a choice of Denver, the Dolphins or the L.A. Chargers.

Rodgers, of course, ended up with the Jets instead and of the last three options, remember that Denver played in prime time in Week 1 last year and the Chargers played at Kansas City in the Week 2 Thursday night game last season, so maybe the NFL will want a different angle.

The Dolphins have appeared in the kickoff game once, in 2006 when they faced the defending Super Bowl champion Steelers at Heinz Field and lost 28-17.

RECENT TRENDS TO REMEMBER

If we're looking to try to predict the Dolphins' 2023 schedule, it probably helps to remember certain patterns.

-- The Dolphins have opened against the New England Patriots three consecutive seasons, and it frankly would be very surprising if it happened for a fourth straight year.

-- The Dolphins have faced the Bills at home in September each of the past three seasons before going to Buffalo later in the season, including twice in December/January. It's fair to predict it'll be the opposite this year as a change of pace, with Buffalo coming to Miami first.

-- Trying to determine which AFC East opponent the Dolphins will get for the season finale is tricky considering the last 10 years have been split evenly — four against New England, three against Buffalo, three against the Jets.

-- Here's another strange one: The Dolphins have not faced the Jets in Miami in September since 2012. The last 10 home games against the Jets — 2015 game took place in England — have been played in December, December, October, November, October, November, November, October, December and this past January.

-- This goes back to the prime-time scenarios, where it's interesting to point out that of the 14 different opponents on the Dolphins schedule, the one with the longest time since a prime-time matchup is Dallas. The Dolphins have not faced the Cowboys in prime time since 1987. They also have not had a game against the Chiefs scheduled for prime time since 1995, though they had a game moved to a Friday night because of the threat of an impending hurricane.