Dolphins-Chargers Week 1 Predictions Roundup

The Miami Dolphins will look to start off their 2023 season on a high note when they face the Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium on Sunday.

The Dolphins will enter the game as 3.5-point underdogs, according to the SI Sportsbook.

Here's a roundup of national predictions on this game:

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CBS Sports

Analysis: "This is a long road trip for the Dolphins to start a season. Miami didn't play well against the Chargers last year in its loss there, but this Miami team might be better. Even so, look for Justin Herbert to again get the best of the battle with Tua Tagovailoa. Miami will keep it close -- real close."

Prediction: Chargers 31, Dolphins 30

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Sports Illustrated

Albert Breer Prediction: Chargers

Mitch Goldich Prediction: Chargers

Claire Kuwana Prediction: Chargers

Gilbert Manzano Prediction: Chargers

Conor Orr Prediction: Chargers

John Pluym Prediction: Chargers

Matt Verderame Prediction: Chargers

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Pro Football Network

Analysis: "If you’re only able to catch one of the afternoon games, try to make it this one. 2020 NFL Draft classmates will face off against one another. Mike McDaniel, Brandon Staley, Kellen Moore, and Vic Fangio join the ring together in a battle of tactical wits. It should be a blast. The Dolphins offense was incredibly hot with a healthy Tua Tagovailoa a season ago. However, their offensive line remains the low point on their roster, and the Chargers will finally have Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack on the field together at one time."

Adam H. Beasley Prediction: Chargers

Dalton Miller Prediction: Dolphins

Dallas Robinson Prediction: Chargers

David Bearman: Dolphins

Jay Morrison: Dolphins

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The Sporting News

Analysis: "Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins' offense looks ready to explode again under Mike McDaniel. Justin Herbert, fresh mega contract and all, has been getting rave reviews under Kellen Moore. This should lead to a shootout with high-volume downfield passing with the Chargers' receiving depth, including dynamic Austin Ekeler, allowing them to outlast the mirrored onslaught."

Prediction: Chargers 35, Dolphins 31

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The Ringer

Analysis: "So much of this season for the Dolphins will be about whether head coach Mike McDaniel has a plan B. What he did last year was impressive. But now opposing coaches know what to expect and can come up with ways to stop it. How will McDaniel counter? We should get a good look right away. Brandon Staley’s Chargers got the better of the Dolphins in a 23-17 win late last season. Tua Tagovailoa went 10-for-28 in that game, and Los Angeles did a good job of disrupting the Dolphins’ offensive timing. On the other side of the ball, we get the debut of the Kellen Moore–led Chargers offense. I would really appreciate a bit where he has Justin Herbert launch the ball 50 yards downfield on the first three snaps just so nobody can complain about Herbert’s average depth of target this season. These are two talented teams with a lot on the line. This feels like a toss-up game. I’m taking the points."

Prediction (against the spread): Dolphins +3

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ESPN

Analysis: "The Chargers made sure Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa never got comfortable in Week 14 last season, limiting him by taking away quick-timing throws and the middle of the field. Miami coach Mike McDaniel had a whole offseason to figure out how to counter that approach, but Los Angeles will have star pass-rusher Joey Bosa available after he didn't play last year's matchup because of a groin injury. Whoever dictates the tempo and nature of the Dolphins' pass game will have a huge advantage."

Seth Walder Prediction: Dolphins 34, Chargers 31

Eric Moody Prediction: Chargers 24, Dolphins 16

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Pro Football Talk

Mike Florio

Prediction: Dolphins 28, Chargers 27

Chris Simms

Prediction: Dolphins 31, Chargers 28

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NFL.com

Ali Bhanpuri Prediction: Dolphins 28, Chargers 24

Tom Blair Prediction: Dolphins 21, Chargers 20

Brooke Cersosimo Prediction: Chargers 30, Dolphins 28

Gennaro Filice Prediction: Chargers 33, Dolphins 31

Dan Parr Prediction: Chargers 28, Dolphins 24

Prediction: Dolphins 33, Chargers 24

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The 33rd Team

Analysis: "This is one of the better games on the opening day slate, as two loaded rosters square off in Los Angeles. An issue for the Miami Dolphins is that the Los Angeles Chargers have been a run sieve under Brandon Staley by design. The Dolphins have a below-average offensive line and one of the weaker running back rooms in the league. They are less equipped to exploit the Chargers’ weakness than most teams. That puts this matchup on Tua Tagovailoa, who struggled against Staley’s defense last season."

Prediction: Chargers 24, Dolphins 21

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The Athletic

Analysis: "Both these teams are going to have really strong seasons, and this one comes down to Dolphins cornerback Jalen Ramsey being out and Keenan Allen looking like a man possessed this training camp. I don’t see Justin Herbert having much trouble Sunday. Vic Fangio ran some form of man coverage on 38.5 percent of snaps during his final season with the Broncos in 2021, the second-highest rate in the NFL. Herbert, though, ranked fifth in the NFL in yards per attempt (8.1) and EPA per dropback (0.23) against man last season, per TruMedia, and threw for the second-most passing yards on such plays (1,317)."

Prediction (against the spread): Chargers

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SI Fan Nation All Dolphins

Analysis: "Maybe the most encouraging aspect in terms of determining where the Dolphins are in their current evolution is that there is not one game on the schedule that they can't win because of the high-end potential of the offense and what the defense might be able to do with Fangio guiding the unit. That said, there will be matchups that are more challenging than others, and this clearly is one of them. The Chargers maybe haven't been quite as popular as a trendy Super Bowl contender pick as they were at this time last year, but the bottom line this remains a team loaded with high-end talent. Even without Armstead, we have a hard time envisioning the Dolphins offense struggling the way it did in the December matchup at SoFi Stadium, and the antidote might be as simple as focusing more on the running game or maybe throwing a lot of screen passes to loosen the defense a bit. On the flip side, Fangio has had some success against the Chargers offense in recent years, so we wouldn't necessarily expect Herbert to pass for over 300 yards. The crowd also will be a benefit for the Dolphins in the sense that this isn't a typical road game because the fan support might end up being pretty close to 50-50. It sets up for a really entertaining season opener for both teams, and one that could set a course for a memorable 2023 season for the Dolphins (though a loss wouldn't be nearly as damaging). We expect a close one that could go either way, but logic suggests more things are working in the Chargers' favor."

Prediction: Chargers 27, Dolphins 24

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