All Dolphins

What to Make of Dolphins Disrespect for Baltimore Game

The Miami Dolphins are heavy underdogs despite playing at home against a team with the same number of wins
Alain Poupart|
Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1), scores a running touchdown late in the fourth quarter against the Baltimore Ravens during NFL game at Hard Rock Stadium Thursday in Miami Gardens.
Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1), scores a running touchdown late in the fourth quarter against the Baltimore Ravens during NFL game at Hard Rock Stadium Thursday in Miami Gardens. | BILL INGRAM /THE PALM BEACH POST / USA TODAY NETWORK

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Miami Dolphins

The Miami Dolphins and Baltimore Ravens will enter their Thursday night matchup at Hard Rock Stadium with the same disappointing number of wins on the season, and yet this is being viewed almost as a mismatch in favor of the visiting team.

The Ravens' disappointing season so far is much more surprising than that of the Dolphins, but now that they're getting healthy, ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky said he wanted to see "domination" from the Ravens on Thursday night, calling the Dolphins a team in turmoil for most of the season.

The oddsmakers seem to agree with Orlovsky when it comes to the outlook for this game.

The Dolphins will enter the game as 7.5-point underdogs, according to the DraftKings Sportsbook, which truly is a remarkable line when you consider not only each team's record but the fact the Dolphins are coming off a 24-point victory and the game is being played in Miami.

It's not necessarily common for a home team to be an underdog by a touchdown or more, but it does happen.

For the Dolphins, this will mark the 13th time in the past 10 years they've been underdogs by seven or more at home.

But here's the thing, this usually has happened with a combination of a really bad Dolphins record and a good opponent record.

In fact, this is the first time in the past 10 years outside of the very unique 2019 season that the Dolphins have been underdogs at home by at least seven points.

The Dolphins have been underdogs at home by seven points or more four times in the past 10 years, but two of those matchups came against Tom Brady's New England Patriots, one against Patrick Mahomes' Kansas City Chiefs, and then there was a 2018 Week 6 game against the Chicago Bears when the Dolphins were 3-2 but heading into their first game with Brock Osweiler replacing an injured Ryan Tannehill at quarterback.

A RAVENS REPEAT

As fate would have it, the last time the Dolphins were underdogs by seven points or more at home was in 2021 ... against the Baltimore Ravens ... in a Thursday night game.

The Dolphins entered that game with a 2-7 record and the Ravens were 6-2, and starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa wasn't going to start because of a thumb injury.

But Tagovailoa did get into the game when he replaced Jacoby Brissett in the second half, scored a rare rushing touchdown and the blitz-happy defense frustrated Lamar Jackson all night to lead the way to a 22-10 victory for Miami. That victory came after the Dolphins had defeated the Houston Texans the previous week for their second win of the season and would spark what became a seven-game winning streak.

So deja vu all over again perhaps?

Who knows, but what the record says is the Dolphins have performed well over the past 10 years when they've been heavy underdogs at home.

Not counting that 2019 season because nothing about it ever should be used as any of measuring stick other than how to churn over the roster and set records for transactions, the Dolphins have a 5-2 record in those home games when they were underdogs by seven points or more.

The victories besides that 2021 game against Baltimore and that 2018 game against Chicago came against New England in 2017 and 2018 (including the Miami Miracle), and against the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2016, the 30-15 win that sparked the Dophins' playoff run in Adam Gase's first year as head coach.

The two losses came against New England in the finale of that 2016 season, 35-14, after Miami had made the playoffs and in 2020 against the Chiefs when the Dolphins lost 33-27.

So recent history suggests not to dismiss the Dolphins' chances against the Ravens on Thursday night.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

More Miami Dolphins Coverage:

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Alain Poupart
ALAIN POUPART

Alain Poupart is the publisher/editor of Miami Dolphins On SI and host of the All Dolphins Podcast. Alain has covered the Miami Dolphins on a full-time basis since 1989 for various publications and media outlets, including Dolphin Digest, The Associated Press and the Dolphins team website. In addition to being a credentialed member of the Miami Dolphins press corps, Alain has covered three Super Bowls (for NFL.com, Football News and the Montreal Gazette), the annual NFL draft, the Senior Bowl, and the NFL Scouting Combine. During his almost 40 years in journalism, which began at the now-defunct Miami News, Alain has covered practically every sport at one time or another, from tennis to golf, baseball, basketball and everything in between. The career also included time as a copy editor, including work on several books, such as "Still Perfect," an inside look at the Miami Dolphins' 1972 perfect season. A native of Montreal, Canada, whose first language is French, Alain grew up a huge hockey fan but soon developed a love for all sports, including NFL football. He has lived in South Florida since the 1980s.

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