Why the Dolphins Will Need from Tua Down the Stretch

The Miami Dolphins’ offensive identity has undergone a significant shift this season. The team is now one of the most productive running offenses in the sport, recording at least 160 yards on the ground in four straight games.

That’s helped the Dolphins win four straight games and maintain a slim chance of making the postseason, but it’s also come at a time when QB Tua Tagovailoa and the passing game have regressed.

“There’s a lot of things that go into that,” Tua said during his weekly media session Thursday. “How I’m seeing it, with how I’m going through the game, with my progressions, if I’m ahead of the play, if I’m not. I think a lot of that has played a big part being the reason why it’s not as good.”

The Dolphins will face the Pittsburgh Steelers Monday night, the first of four straight matchups against teams fighting for their playoff lives (Steelers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers), a top seed (New England Patriots), or those that just have a ton of firepower (Cincinnati Bengals).

At some point, Tua will need to make some plays if the Dolphins are going to win all of those contests.

How Bad Have Things Gotten for Tua, Dolphins?

Everyone knows about the turnover numbers for Tua (14 INTs), but he was mostly an average quarterback by advanced stats during the first part of the season.

However, we’ve seen several of those trail off in recent weeks, especially the team’s last three games. Since Week 11, Tua is 29th in EPA per dropback, 18th in passer rating, and third in sack rate, all while throwing the sixth-highest percentage of passes behind the line of scrimmage.

All of those stats are troubling, but the sack rate might be the worst of the bunch because Miami is allowing the third-lowest PFF pressure percentage in the NFL during that same span.

The teams ahead of the Dolphins (Los Angeles Rams, Pittsburgh Steelers) have quarterbacks in Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers who are top-10 in sack percentage since Week 11.

Simply put, nobody is getting pressured less and taking more sacks than Tagovailoa.

The film tells the story of a player whose footwork is a mess, leading to off-target throws, late throws in the middle, and poor decisions on throws into tight windows when the internal clock runs out.

"I've done a lot more in individual drills and with guys after practice," Tua said when asked about his footwork. "Whether it's a walk-through or whatever that might look like, so yeah, I've spent a lot more time on that."

Given his limited physical traits, Tua was already a sitting duck in the pocket who needed to win with precise timing and accuracy. Now, he’s become even more of a statue, and his previous strengths have gotten worse.

All of that has culminated in Miami having the 31st most passing yards since Week 11.

Who Cares? The Dolphins Are Winning

I imagine this will be a common response to a lot of Tua’s struggles. And you’d be right to point out that Miami is in fact 3-0 since Week 11.

You’d also be right to point out that some of Tua’s drop in numbers is due to a lack of volume because the running game has gone for more than 160 yards in four straight weeks.

However, the question you should ask is whether Tua’s struggles have also pushed the Dolphins to lower his volume and favor the running game. Like most things in football, this is a case where multiple things can be true.

Miami is running more because it's good at it and because Tua has regressed. Of course, there are other factors besides Tua’s regression. The team lacks a real pass-catching threat at receiver besides Jaylen Waddle and a stylistically limited tight end in Darren Waller.

It's no secret what Tua wants to see happen down the stretch, despite how bad the passing game has looked recently.

"Would I like to throw the ball more? Sure," Taogvailoa said. "But if running the ball is what's helping us win games right now, I don't see why we'd stop doing it."

The reason for concern is that teams eventually will stop the Dolphins’ running game. Getting 160 yards on the ground every week just isn’t sustainable, even against some bad defenses like the Steelers and Bengals. Every team’s game plan from now until the end of the Dolphins’ run will be to force Tua and the passing game to beat them.

Eventually, one of those teams will be successful in doing that. Tua might want to be in that position, but his history in those scenarios isn’t good, especially late in the season, and he’s playing worse than he has in a long time this season.

That is hardly a formula for a successful outcome whenever the Dolphins are forced to air the ball out a bit. Tua will likely get his wish, but it's hard to be confident the result will be great.

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