Eagles-Giants: Previewing Round 2

PHILADELPHIA - The Eagles are the healthiest they’ve been in a long time as they move to stake a further claim on the NFC East.

Just 3-4-1 at the season’s midpoint, the division is so bad that most projection models give Philadelphia about a 67 percent chance to win the division title. A second win over the 2-7 New York Giants in three weeks would basically put Big Blue in the rear-view mirror for another year.

Winning against the Giants has become a way of life for the Eagles and you have to go back nearly 1,500 days to find a NY win in the series.

The Eagles have now won eight straight in the series and 12 of 13 overall, a nod to the mastery over Eli Manning late in his career before the baton was handed to Daniel Jones and his growing pains as a young quarterback.

The Giants are learning as they go with a first-year head coach in Philadelphia native Joe Judge and a second-year quarterback. They’ve generally been competitive, however. Take Oct. 22 at Lincoln Financial Field when the Giants were leading 21-10 midway through the fourth quarter before the other shoe dropped in the form of a big Evan Engram drop.

The rest is history, culminating in perhaps the play of the first half of the season for Philadelphia, a brilliant 18-yard touchdown throw from Carson Wentz to Giant-killer Boston Scott in the waning seconds, and a 22-21 win for the Birds.

Doug Pederson seems to know he dodged a bullet last month.

“Quite frankly, they had us beat,” said the coach on Wednesday. "... This a good football team, and we’ve got to learn from that game."

The Eagles are expected to get back a pair of starting offensive linemen in left guard Isaac Seumalo and right tackle Lane Johnson, with the latter being iffier after showing up to practice with a bulky brace on his left knee.

Meanwhile, the embattled Wentz is set to get back two more playmakers in running back Miles Sanders and receiver Alshon Jeffery.

OFFENSIVE SCHEME: The Giants’ offensive struggles have been well-documented without their top playmaker, injured running back Saquon Barkley.

New York is 31st in both total offense, red-zone offense, and points per game as it toggles between 11 and 12 personnel formations the majority of the time under offensive coordinator Jason Garrett.

The biggest outlier the Giants use is 13 personnel (three tight ends), which they go to about 10 percent of the time, second in the NFL to Cleveland when it comes to that personnel grouping.

The Eagles are a tad concerned about the dual-threat Jones brings to the table after he showed off his athleticism with an 80-yard run against Philadelphia last month.

“I mean, I think that he’s just playing better,” Pro Bowl defensive tackle Fletcher Cox said of Jones. “Their entire team is playing a lot better, on a whole other level than when we played them a couple weeks ago.”

DEFENSIVE SCHEME: The Eagles remain wary of the Giants’ 3-4 front and the defensive side is clearly the identity under coordinator Patrick Graham. The group as a whole is middle of the road at No. 15 overall but it’s been elite stopping the run (No. 6 overall) and in red-zone defense (No. 4).

The front of Dexter Lawrence, Dalvin Tomlinson, and Leonard Williams is tough to deal with and Mike linebacker Blake Martinez has been a Godsend since coming over as a free agent from Green Bay.

“They have a good defensive line,” said Eagles All-Pro center Jason Kelce. “We have to do a better job opening up holes and moving the D-linemen to create running lanes. And I think protection-wise you just have to block better.”

STRENGTH: The strength of the Giants is that defensive line where Williams and Lawrence are former first-round picks while Tomlinson is a second-rounder so the raw talent is significant.

The good news is that the Eagles are the healthiest they’ve been in a long-time on the OL with Seumalo likely to be activated from IR on Saturday after being a full-go at practice all week. The group from left to right is expected to be: Jason Peters, Seumalo, Kelce, Nate Herbig, and Johnson with Jordan Mailata slotting in at RT if either Johnson’s balky left ankle or left knee becomes a problem on game day.

“I mean they did a really good job of pushing the pocket in the first game, as they do pretty much against everybody,” said Kelce. “They got a good front, as everybody knows. We just got to do a better job of making sure it's firm and giving those tackles the ability to make their job a little bit easier so that Carson can step up, make Carson feel more comfortable so that he can step up and deliver a throw and feel confident with that.”

WEAK LINK: The NYG offensive line is still a work in progress and if you check back in two years you might have something, but the Giants are struggling through the start-up costs with 2020 first-round pick Andrew Thomas as well as a pretty talented young guard in Will Hernandez.

"They have a good blocking scheme," defensive end Brandon Graham said. “The way they’ve been sticking on blocks and the way they've been just designing their runs. They do a pretty good job up front, you right, they have gotten better since we last seen them.

“And I think like I say every week, I mean, it’s no guarantees in this league. You got to go work for what you want and I think they've been working and we got our hands full. We got to go out there and do our part."

The running game struggles without Barkley and there is little consistency to the passing game. And when you have consistent troubles on the offensive side of the ball, it almost always traces back to the O-Line, something the Eagles are familiar with when the injuries overwhelmed their own group in the first half of the season.

UNDER THE RADAR: James Bradberry has quietly developed into a top-10 cornerback with the Giants and he intercepted Wentz in the first game.

He’s a lengthy, savvy zone-proficient CB who has learned to bait quarterbacks a bit and Wentz has obviously been susceptible to INTs this season.

MATCHUP TO WATCH: The Eagles red-zone offense vs. the Giants red-zone defense.

Philadelphia has been fine in the red zone this season at No. 13 in the league, but defending in small quarters is what the Giants do best at No. 4 overall.

The elite front, a top-tier run-stuffer, and a lengthy CB make things difficult for the opposition.

First and foremost, the Eagles have to keep it clean in the red zone. While all turnovers are momentum shifters, the dramatic toll going from expected points to the football going the other way is what could propel the Giants to the upset.

OUTLOOK: The three certainties of life seem to morph into four when you involve the Eagles and Giants.

You can add Philadelphia winning in a close game to your death and taxes.

It’s hard to pick the Giants over the Eagles until they actually get it done and any home-field advantage is lost with the game in New Jersey and the no-fans mandate that will be in place for the entirety of the season.

So why not add symmetry in this disaster of a division and a second 22-21 win for the Eagles? That seems about right for 2020 in the NFC East.

Final Score:

JOHN MCMULLEN: Eagles 22, Giants 21 (4-3-1 on the season, 4-4 vs. the spread)

ED KRACZ: Eagles 23, Giants 22 (3-4-1 on the season, 4-4 vs. the spread)

John McMullen contributes Eagles coverage for SI.com's EagleMaven and is the NFL Insider for JAKIB Media. You can listen to John every Tuesday and Thursday on "The Middle" with Eytan Shander, Harry Mayes, and Barrett Brooks on SportsMap Radio and PhillyVoice.com. He’s also the host of Extending the Play on AM1490 in South Jersey. You can reach him at jmcmullen44@gmail.com or on Twitter @JFMcMullen

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