Hope Takes on Strategy in Eagles’ First Round

No one really knows what Howie Roseman will do from the comfort of his own home in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft

If you want to impress your friends on Thursday night, be honest.

No one really knows what Howie Roseman will do from the comfort of his own home in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft other than hand out the forgotten WiFi password to the kids.

If past is prologue, you can be comfortable in predicting that the Eagles will not select at No. 21 overall.

In fact, Roseman likes to move up or down the draft board so much maybe the only tell to a poor night will be allowing Roger Goodell to announce: “With the 21st pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, the Philadelphia Eagles select (insert name)” from his basement in New York.

Heck, Roseman virtually admitted that in a video conference call with reporters last week: "You’ve got to be prepared for the worst-case scenario. You’ve got to stake the board in a way that you should be comfortable taking the 21st player on your board.

“... We’ll expect the worst and hope for the best.”

So we are going to do something a little different with our final Eagles first-round mock, and try to give you some insight on all the moving pieces: moving up to get CeeDee Lamb, moving down to take a second-tier WR like Jalen Reagor or Brandon Aiyuk, or staying put and "settling" for that No. 21.

The lynchpin to it all is probably the San Francisco 49ers, who sandwich Philadelphia with two first-round picks at Nos. 13 and No. 31 overall.

From there, the Niners are not up again to No. 156 overall in the fifth round and reports are that John Lynch doesn’t want to sit out Day 2 of the draft and will try to use what he has to accumulate more picks.

FORCING THE ISSUE:

Moving up to No, 13 overall to select Oklahoma receiver CeeDee Lamb.

* Eagles trade Nos. 21, 103 and 127 overall

The worst kept secret in Philadelphia is that the Eagles need to get Carson Wentz a reliable playmaker outside the numbers and they want a young wideout who hasn’t been affected by outside voices and different schemes.

Like most teams, the belief inside the Eagles' organization is that Lamb is the guy Roseman and VP of Player Personnel Andy Weidl have landed on as the best WR in what is shaping up as a historically deep class.

With the Sooners, Lamb led the 2020 group in all the things you look for in a difference-maker, things like yards per target, yards per route run and perhaps most notably YAC, yards after catch.

Lamb might not even make it to the 13th pick, but if Roseman sees the board falling his way a little bit, this is where he starts thinking about losing his discipline and surrendering assets to get what he really wants.

HOPING FOR THE BEST AND EXPECTING THE WORST:

Staying put at No. 21 overall and selecting the best option available.

“Hope is not a strategy; we have that sign hanging up (at the NovaCare Complex),” said Roseman.

The hope here is that one of the top three WRs after Lamb somehow falls to 21 due to other positions getting pushed up the board. It’s inconceivable Jerry Jeudy falls that far, very unlikely his Alabama teammate Henry Ruggs does despite some late buzz in big-name mocks like Mel Kiper and Peter King, and it’s now trending less than 50/50 that LSU’s Justin Jefferson does as well.

Ruggs' 4.27 speed falling this far in a league that values speed above all else would seem strange to say the least.

Expecting the worst is where the talk of linebackers like Oklahoma’s Kenneth Murray and LSU’s Patrick Queen come into the equation or perhaps even a defensive back like versatile Alabama safety Xavier McKinney.

The real labeling should be "settling" for perhaps a better player at a position that's either viewed as less valuable or a lesser need.

SOMETHING IN BETWEEN:

Trading down to the late-first or early second-round to select TCU WR Jalen Reagor or Arizona State WR Brandon Aiyuk.

In two years it’s at least conceivable that players like Reagor or Aiyuk are bigger playmakers than the higher-touted options at the position but both are coming off pre-draft surgeries and the value simply isn’t there at 21 so Roseman will want to move out hoping someone bites despite the thought around the league that the talent from about 20 to 40 or so is very similar.

The goal here is to regain some of the draft capital lost in the Darius Slay trade.

In many ways, this should be looked out as a positive because Roseman has been consistent in saying the Eagles need young, cost-effective bodies after consecutive years of only five picks.

John McMullen covers the Eagles for SI.com and is the NFL Insider for JAKIB Media. You can listen to John every day on SIRIUSXM’s Tony Bruno Show with Harry Mayes, Every Tuesday and Thursday with Eytan Shander on SBNation Radio, and every weekday on ESPN 97.3 in South Jersey. You can reach him at jmcmullen44@gmail.com or on Twitter @JFMcMullen