Atlanta Falcons pegged as 12-to-1 underdog to win NFC South by Westgate Las Vegas

We now know a lot about the 2020 NFL Season and how it's going to set up for the Atlanta Falcons. Roster movement is mostly through with, and the schedule is out. The folks in the desert have released their initial lines on things from division races, playoff odds, to of course Super Bowl odds for each team.

Up until the NFL Draft, most would agree the Falcons put together a solid offseason. Thomas Dimitroff added one of the premier pass rushers on the market in Dante Fowler Jr., and brought in Todd Gurley II to replace Devonta Freeman. An "all-in" approach to 2020, a season in which Matt Ryan will be 35 years old, and Julio Jones will be 31. The Falcons' 6-2 finish to the 2019 season may have saved the jobs of Dimitroff and Dan Quinn, among others. It is important that the Falcons win in 2020, possibly even essential for the job security of those in charge.

Atlanta went into the draft with depth issues, and addressed those needs throughout the process. They added talent at defensive back, defensive line, offensive line, as well as linebacker. They didn't waste any picks on non-essential offensive personnel or a quarterback project for the future. They went conservative, taking solid players who they felt like could produce something right away.

A.J. Terrell was one of the best press corners in all of Division I in 2019, despite his performance in the National Championship vs. No. 1 overall pick Joe Burrow and the 15-0 LSU Tigers. Marlon Davidson was a physical force in the best conference in college football, and should possess the versatility to play inside or outside on the defensive front. Matt Hennessy is an experienced player who will compete for reps at guard and backup Alex Mack, a role the Falcons did not address in free agency.

They did what they needed to do. Filled holes in key areas. Yet, Las Vegas oddmakers do not see it as enough to move the needle. After back-to-back 7-9 seasons under Dan Quinn, Westgate has them at 7.5 wins for the 2020 season.

NFL Regular Season Wins @SuperBookUSA pic.twitter.com/1kGt3BummQ
— Jeff Sherman (@golfodds) May 7, 2020

Part of this is schedule-related, this Vegas-based model from Sharp Football Stats shows the Falcons have the most difficult schedule in the league based on the projected win totals.

The Falcons are underdogs to even make the playoffs, which now includes seven teams from each conference as per the new CBA. They are +240 to make the postseason, meaning a bettor would get a $240 payout on a $100 bet if Atlanta made the playoffs as either a wild card or a division winner.

NFL Playoff odds @SuperBookUSA pic.twitter.com/VHTyO7HjXj
— Jeff Sherman (@golfodds) May 7, 2020

Perhaps the most surprising of the numbers from Las Vegas was the Falcons being 12-to-1 to win the NFC South, while the New Orleans Saints and 10/11 and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers right behind them at 5/4. Only the Carolina Panthers and rookie head coach Matt Rhule (20/1) have steeper NFC South odds than Atlanta going into the season.

NFL Division odds @SuperBookUSA pic.twitter.com/owTRg3MV9I
— Jeff Sherman (@golfodds) May 7, 2020

The roster moves alone probably made the team better, but considering the difficulty of the schedule and the health concerns around Gurley II, the projection is not completely shocking. Five of the last seven games of the Falcons' season are against (assuming health) Tom Brady, Drew Brees or Patrick Mahomes. They also face Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott and Aaron Rodgers all in the first four weeks. It's not an accident that they're projected to have the hardest schedule in the league, which probably knocks at least 1.5 wins off the projected total.

If you're gambler and don't mind losing a bet or two, the 12/1 NFC South odds have to be appealing. Sure, the New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have the pedigree and flashy offseason moves to make bettors feel it's a two-team race, but the Falcons are an unpredictable group if 2019 says anything. The return-on-investment on a small bet may be worth the risk, if you're into that kind of thing. Plus, even at 35, Ryan is younger than Brady or Brees by a wide margin.

Anyways, the headline here is that the Falcons are sleepers in Vegas going into the 2020 season. The timeline for the team to win is now, so something has to give. Will Vegas be wrong, or will it be another mediocre season and time for changes again in Atlanta? Only time will tell.