Falcons Draft Texas RB Bijan Robinson? Why Atlanta Shouldn't Do It
The Atlanta Falcons are set for a critical offseason as they enter the third season of coach Arthur Smith and general manager Terry Fontenot's tenure at the helm.
With a top-10 pick, the most players 26 years old or younger in the NFL and the second-most cap space to spend league-wide, the Falcons have plenty of reasons for optimism - largely centered around the resources at their disposal.
But with several pressing needs, how should Atlanta use this capital?
One such option that's grown in popularity is to draft Texas Longhorns running back Bijan Robinson at No. 8 overall - and it makes sense in some aspects.
Still, is that truly the direction the Falcons should go?
Here's the case for Atlanta to pass on Robinson in the 2023 NFL Draft ...
Why Robinson Doesn't Make Sense
Three things:
- Tyler Allgeier
- 39 sacks
- Position value
Across all sports, the basis of roster building is to get standout players on cheap, controllable contracts - and the Falcons have exactly that in Allgeier.
A fifth-round pick last year, Allgeier broke the Falcons rookie rushing record with 1,035 yards, good for second-most among rookies league-wide.
Smith said that Allgeier only improved as the year went along and never really hit the proverbial rookie wall, and his strong finish to the season certainly supports that. Across the last four games, Allgeier had 79 carries for 431 yards and two touchdowns while adding six receptions for 52 yards.
In essence, not only is Allgeier on a fifth-round rookie contract (much cheaper than a first-round rookie deal) for the next three years, but he's also a rapidly ascending player who's an excellent fit in Smith's zone offense and has proven he can handle a heavy workload.
The second point is regarding Atlanta's defense, where 39 sacks isn't a one-year figure ... it's a two-year total, last in the league in that span by a wide margin. Further, 39 sacks alone in 2022 would've still had the Falcons in the bottom half of the league.
Fontenot and Smith have both stressed that improving the pass rush will be "prioritized" and a "focal point" this offseason, as well as continuing to develop 2022 second- and third-round outside linebackers Arnold Ebiketie and DeAngelo Malone.
Sure, the Falcons can sign a proven pass rusher in free agency - but will the value match up? Considering the high-end talent of the draft class at defensive end, it's certainly possible Atlanta holds off and targets the position at No. 8 overall.
That, of course, would take Robinson out of the picture ... but should he be in said picture in the first place?
There hasn't been a running back drafted inside the top-20 since the New York Giants took Saquon Barkley at No. 2 overall in 2018 and there wasn't a single ballcarrier selected in the first-round last year.
Across the league, running backs don't often make it beyond a second contract and few teams dish out big deals to free agent runners - though many will extend their own guys.
Still, given the nature of the position and the relatively large number of capable ballcarriers, there's largely not much of a need to exhaust big resources on one.
Take the Falcons, for instance; Atlanta ranked No. 3 in the NFL in rushing with the fifth-round rookie and Week 1 healthy scratch Allgeier, former undrafted free agent and practice squad player Caleb Huntley and injury-riddled 31-year-old converted receiver Cordarrelle Patterson leading the way.
Would Robinson take the Falcons' rushing attack to another level? More likely than not, yes - but would it be enough to overcome some of the other flaws that could be addressed at No. 8? That would be answered later on down the line.
Ultimately, whether or not Robinson is in play will ultimately depend on how the free agency period works out for Atlanta - but if there are still holes on the defensive front, secondary and offensive line, it's difficult to commit the capital needed to take a player of Robinson's caliber.
You can follow Daniel Flick on Twitter @DFlickDraft
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