Latest NFC South Odds Paint Bleak Picture for Atlanta Falcons

In a division that's been ripe for the taking the last four years, oddsmakers say it won't be the Atlanta Falcons who take it this year.

The success of the Atlanta Falcons 2026 season rests largely on improved QB play from Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr. | Scott Kennedy

The Atlanta Falcons went through a complete overhaul in the front office after finishing 8-9 last season. It was their eighth-straight year without a winning season or postseason play.

The overhaul didn't stop at the front office, as Kevin Stefanski was brought in to replace Raheem Morris as the team's new head coach. When the Falcons face the Pittsburgh Steelers on September 13th, he'll be the fourth head coach the team has had on Week 1 in the last seven seasons.

One of the reasons for the multiple changes is the Falcons' inability to take advantage of what has been a down NFC South over the last half-decade. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have finished first or tied for first in each of the last four seasons, and their aggregate record over that span is a mediocre 35-34.

Last season, the Falcons, Panthers, and Buccaneers finished 8-9 to top the division, with the Saints only one game behind. Each team had a 3-3 record in the division. When looking for the definition of "mid", point to the NFC South.

Heading into 2026, the division is wide open again without a true favorite. However, the oddsmakers almost without fail have placed the Atlanta Falcons as the team with the worst odds of winning the NFC South.

Vegas Insider compiled the odds from five prominent sportsbooks, and only FanDuel didn't have the Falcons finishing last. They had the Falcons third, with the Panthers bringing up the rear.

The longest odds came from DraftKings who have the Falcons at +425 (100 wins 425), while FanDuel gives the Falcons the best odds at +310.

Each of the five gives the Buccaneers the best odds of winning the division, with the Saints having the second-best odds.

However, what the oddsmakers are also saying is that there's no prohibitive favorite heading into the 2026 season, despite agreement that Tampa has the best chance.

For example, in 2022, at -250 (250 wins 100), the Buccaneers were heavy favorites to win the NFC South coming off a 13-4 season. They went 8-9 that year, but did win the division.

It's understandable that the Falcons would be seen as a risky pick before the games start. Their biggest question is at the game's most important position. They probably have the widest variance of any team in the NFL. If they get good play from some combination of Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr., the rest of their roster is talented enough to go 12-5 against their NFC South, third-place schedule.

If they once again get poor play from the quarterback position, they could be 4-13 and vying for a quarterback with a top-five pick in the 2027 NFL Draft.

Falcons fans have a lot to be excited for in 2026. There's the annual hope for an improved product and playoffs. But if the wheels come off early like they did last season, the Falcons have a first-round pick and the second-most salary cap room in the NFL, according to Spotrac, unlike last year when they had neither.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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