ESPN Analyst Paints Tough Picture of Falcons Michael Penix Jr.

The Atlanta Falcons lost their fourth straight game on Sunday, as they fell 31-25 to the Indianapolis Colts. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. struggled, as he completed just 42.8% of his passes (12 of his 28 attempts) while losing a fumble, and Atlanta went 0-8 on third down.

Penix was the fourth quarterback off the board in the 2024 NFL Draft, taken eighth overall. It was a move that shocked the NFL world, with NFL insider Adam Schefter revealing in his draft notebook that certain general managers around the league had a day two grade on the left-handed quarterback.

“This particular general manager said he believes both Penix and Nix are Day 2 picks. Some teams disagree, and there now is speculation Penix could go as high as No. 8 to the Falcons,” Schefter wrote

That was indeed the case, with Atlanta revealing that they “fell in love” with Penix during his workout.

“We fell in love with a young man that we felt like can take us into the future, and that's what he's going to do, and that's what he's preparing to do," Head coach Raheem Morris said.

The plan at quarterback was clear for the Falcons moving forward: Penix would sit behind veteran Kirk Cousins for at least a year and then take over down the stretch. The plan instantly crashed and burned, as Cousins injured himself in Week 10 of 2024, kept it hidden from the staff, and played himself out of the starting role. In Week 16, Penix was handed the starting job.

Through 11 NFL starts, the second-year quarterback's vices have been easy to see. His accuracy is spotty, and he’s not an extremely willing scrambler.

“We have a larger body of work on Penix. He started his 11th game Sunday morning in Berlin, and it was one of the worst of his career. Penix had a 3.49-second time to throw and completed only 42.9% of his passes -- both career-worst marks. Typically, a quarterback holding the ball for that long rips off a few scrambles, but Penix never crossed the line of scrimmage against Indianapolis and remains one of the least-impactful scramblers in a league increasingly embracing the quarterback run.” ESPN’s Benjamin Solak wrote.

Penix’s inaccuracy was not just an issue on Sunday; it’s been an issue since he took over in Atlanta. The quarterback is 41st in completion percentage and 42nd in off-target rate out of 43 quarterbacks since the start of the 2024 season with at least 200 dropbacks.

Solak is fair. He explained that part of Penix’s inconsistent accuracy can be explained by his downfield aggression. He is second in air yards per attempt at 8.9 yards. Not only that, but Penix’s surroundings have been downright awful as of late.

“Much of the offense has disintegrated around Penix. The running game, which was supposed to be the engine of this team, has sputtered in recent weeks -- though it woke up against the Colts. Injuries to the Falcons' offensive line have muddied Penix's pockets, and Atlanta's receiver depth has been tested. The offensive design, which has received much heat for its overreliance on shotgun and pistol alignments and lack of play-action passing, continues to confound many -- myself included.” Solak wrote.

A justification cannot be made for an 8th overall pick to complete less than 50% of their passes; however, Penix has been dealing with a less-than-ideal situation. Atlanta’s coaching staff likely won’t make it to next season, he has had a revolving door of offensive linemen and every wide receiver aside from Drake London has contributed virtually nothing this season. Also, he still hasn’t started a season’s worth of NFL games.

“Penix's runway still has some room on it; again, we've seen only 11 career starts, and there are serious complaints with the offense around him that justify some patience.” Solak wrote.

The harsh reality is that, overall, Penix hasn’t yet looked like the franchise quarterback that Atlanta fell in love with when they drafted him top 10. His accuracy is worrisome and he’s shaky against the blitz. But he’s also been dealt a tough hand, an unstable coaching staff, a banged-up offensive line and a paper-thin offensive line. Both truths can co-exist: Penix has not been as good as he should be and he also hasn’t been put in the proper position to succeed.

The Falcons’ best move now is patience. With a likely new coaching staff next season, next year will tell the real story of whether Michael Penix Jr. can be the future of football in Atlanta.

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