Predicting Atlanta Falcons 2025 Season: Game-by-Game Breakdown and Final Record

The Atlanta Falcons are less than two weeks away from kicking off their 2025 NFL season with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. It is altogether fitting that the Falcons will welcome the four-time defending NFC South champions to kick off both their season and the Michael Penix era.

Expectations for both their new quarterback and second-year head coach, Raheem Morris, are continuing to elevate for a franchise that has not sniffed postseason action in seven seasons. The 2024 season was promising after a 6-3 start, but the falloff of Kirk Cousins and this team was dramatic as they finished the season winning just two of their next eight games.

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While the franchise returns several players from that team, there will be a whole lot of new faces on the sidelines come September 7, starting with defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich. Additionally, the Falcons will likely have upwards of four to six new defenders who will play a focal role in elevating a unit that finished 28th in defensive DVOA.

But there's now at least one certainty: The times, dates, places, and channels in which Atlanta's season will take place. Falcons On SI provides an optimistic week-by-week look at the Falcons' schedule, with predictions and analysis for each.

Week 1: Vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 1 p.m., Sept. 7 on FOX

Prediction: Falcons Win (1-0)

The Falcons swept the season series with Tampa Bay in 2024, and the Buccaneers will certainly remember that coming in. Both of these teams are wracked with injuries right now, so this could go either way. For the record, when I do predictions, I generally consider divisional matchups to be split. This one just happens to go the Falcons’ way.

Week 2: At Minnesota Vikings – 8:20 p.m., Sept. 14, on NBC (Sunday Night Football)

Prediction: Falcons Loss (1-1)

Minnesota took Atlanta apart in Week 14 of last season, scoring 21 unanswered fourth quarter points. Sam Darnold put together a career game (347 yards and five touchdowns) in the wing, but there is a new signal-caller this fall with 2024 first-round pick J.J. McCarthy – who was taken two picks after Penix.

On the primetime stage, Brian Flores and the Vikings’ stout defense will prove too tough a test for Penix and a banged up Falcons' offense.

Week 3: At Carolina Panthers – 1 p.m., Sept. 21 on FOX

Prediction: Falcons Win (2-1)

The Falcons and Panthers split the season series in 2024, as they have in each of the last five seasons. Panthers quarterback Bryce Young outdueled Penix in a 44-38 OT thriller to close the 2024 campaign. This one will be another difficult divisional game against an upstart opponent, but the Falcons get right with a win in Week 3.

Week 4: Vs. Washington Commanders – 1 p.m., Sept. 28 on CBS

Prediction: Falcons Win (3-1)

After splitting a pair of road games, the Falcons will come home and face the 2024 NFC runner-up Washington Commanders. The pair played a thrilling OT game last season, but the Falcons came up just short. I expect the Commanders, who went an incredible 8-2 in games decided by seven points or less, will lose some of that magic in 2025.

Jayden Daniels and Michael Penix will duel it out, but the Falcons return home with a big win.

Week 5: BYE WEEK

The Falcons enter the bye week 3-1.

Week 6: Vs. Buffalo Bills – 7:15 p.m., Oct.13, on ESPN (Monday Night Football)

Prediction: Falcons Loss (3-2)

The Bills are one of the best teams in the NFL. With the reigning MVP under center, they should be able to handle the Falcons in Atlanta.

Week 7: At San Francisco 49ers – 8:20 p.m., Oct. 19, on NBC (Sunday Night Football)

Prediction: Falcons Loss (3-3)

The 49ers posted a disappointing 6-11 record in 2024, but they are expected to return to being one of the NFL’s best teams this year. They should be much healthier in 2025 and will be led by the always dynamic Kyle Shanahan.

Atlanta will compete in their third primetime game of the young season, but the road environment and San Francisco's poise will be the difference.

Week 8: Vs. Miami Dolphins – 1 p.m., Oct. 26 on CBS

Prediction: Falcons Win (4-3)

Similar to the Falcons, this is a squad who has hovered around .500, so this will be a team expecting to come to Atlanta and get a win. I do think the Falcons will bounce back against an up-and-down Dolphins squad who has shipped off several key players from its defense and is notorious for injury issues on offense.

Week 9: At New England Patriots – 1 p.m., Nov. 2 on CBS

Prediction: Falcons Win (5-3)

Drake Maye will be the third 2024 draftee that Michael Penix will square off with this season. Mike Vrabel’s new team was very aggressive in finding new toys for his second-year quarterback and that has created a level of optimism in Foxborough, but the Falcons should be able to get a win over the Patriots.

Week 10: Indianapolis Colts – 9:30 a.m., Nov. 9, on NFL Network (Berlin, Germany)

Prediction: Falcons Win (6-3)

The Colts' quarterback situation has been on full display this preseason, but Daniel Jones won the job. It remains to be seen how long he actually keeps that job, but this will be a team that leans on a strong running game and an improved defense to win games. This one will be a slow, physical game, but one that the Falcons should be expected to win.

Week 11: Vs. Carolina Panthers – 1 p.m., Nov. 16 on FOX

Prediction: Falcons Loss (6-4)

This pair has split every season series since 2020, and I expect that trend to continue with the Falcons coming back from Europe. Atlanta won at home in Week 3, and Carolina will do the same in Week 11.

Week 12: At New Orleans Saints – 4:25 p.m., Nov. 23 on FOX

Prediction: Falcons Loss (6-5)

The Saints will be coming off a bye week, but this is expected to be a struggling football team in 2025 as they look to the future. Rebuilding or not, this is a rivalry that has split evenly over the last 58 years, and even the worst teams in the NFL pick up a handful of wins every year. Home game against your biggest rival? They’ll be up for this one.

Week 13: At New York Jets – 1 p.m., Nov. 30 on FOX

Prediction: Falcons Win (7-5)

Jeff Ulbrich will be making a homecoming to his former team, where he held the interim head coach role for the latter half of 2024 following the mid-season termination of Robert Saleh. Now, after the failed Aaron Rodgers experiment, Justin Fields is the new guy under center in New York as they look to end the longest playoff drought in the NFL.

This won’t be the year for them to do it, and the Falcons get this win.

Week 14: Vs. Seattle Seahawks – 1 p.m., Dec. 7 on FOX

Prediction: Falcons Win (8-5)

The Falcons will return home for a quick reprieve, but will be greeted with another tough defense. The Seahawks hit the reset button on offense with several new starters, plus a new playcaller. Their identity will be predicated on a strong rushing game, which will cause the Falcons some problems.

Atlanta will get a pair of turnovers and hold on for a hard-fought win.

Week 15: At Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 8:15 p.m., Dec. 11, on Prime Video (Thursday Night Football)

Prediction: Falcons Loss (8-6)

The Falcons finally get a break with a ‘mini-bye,’ but this won’t come until after they face their division rivals on Thursday Night Football. By the time Week 15 rolls around, this will be an exhausted football team that has played five straight games (three on the road) – and it could show.

Week 16: At Arizona Cardinals – 4:05 p.m. EST, Dec. 21 on FOX

Prediction: Falcons Win (9-6)

Arizona was intentional in retooling its defense after loading up on offense last offseason. With that in mind, there is a lot of optimism that this should be a team that improves on its 8-9 record and finds itself in the playoff hunt. This game should be a thriller, but the Falcons will finally have a chance to rest and reset before this game with their 'mini bye', and they will secure their first winning record in seven seasons.

Week 17: Vs. Los Angeles Rams – 8:15 p.m., Dec. 29, on ESPN (Monday Night Football)

Prediction: Falcons Loss (9-7)

The Falcons play their fifth primetime game, but they will finish a disappointing 0-5 in those matchups. Raheem Morris’ former squad will be a difficult team to beat, especially in a late-season game where Matthew Stafford is 18-4 in December, January, and February games with the Rams.

Week 18: Vs. New Orleans Saints – Time, date, and TV information are TBD.

Prediction: Falcons Win (10-7)

The Falcons even the season series with a struggling Saints squad, who will be ready for the offseason, and they secure double-digit wins on the season.

Final Record: 10-7

The Falcons are hoping to reach postseason play for the first time since 2017, but will 10-7 be enough? Only two teams since 2020 have missed the playoffs while reaching double-digit wins, but the Seahawks did it just last season. This would be a massive step in the right direction for Penix, Morris, and this entire organization.