Super Bowl's Most Important Stat, What It Means For the Falcons

The Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots are just a few days away from squaring off in Super Bowl LX, but what nuggets can teams like the Atlanta Falcons take from this matchup? While most onlookers will be ranking commercials while filling up on hot wings and chips, this is certainly the question that 30 teams will be asking themselves on Sunday evening.

For teams like the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots, it is all about creating explosive offense and limiting it on defense. What does this mean for the teams watching? The Athletic Football Show with Robert Mays took a deep dive into this very topic, but let’s break it down a bit here and see what the Falcons can learn from it.

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According to a 2022 study from Pro Football Focus, having just one explosive play (i.e., a run of 12+ yards or a pass of 16+) on any given drive tripled the expected points value of the possession. Turnovers and field position are important, but there is no mistaking why the NFL’s best teams have the league’s best explosive play margin.

The top four teams in this category, including the playoffs, from 2025-26 (per The Athletic) are the Seahawks (+2.60), Patriots (+2.17), Los Angeles Rams (+2.06), and Denver Broncos (+1.59) -- or, better put, the four representatives in the Conference Championship games.

These teams could either create explosive offense at an elite rate, or take it away (sometimes both if you're the Seahawks), and it is clear that the explosive play margin is the clearest indicator of regular-season and playoff success.

Meanwhile, the Falcons sit well below any of these four teams (-0.80), with a lagging offense (5.3%, 22nd in the NFL) as a primary reason why.

Defensively, the Falcons had a relatively strong season (6.1%, 14th) in percentage of explosive offense allowed. They did this despite several injuries to a youthful defense. This performance is a reason why the franchise opted to retain defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich this offseason, despite a major upheaval of the coaching staff.

This unit, while it stands to improve in run defense, had a highly rated secondary and a pass rush that set a franchise mark in sacks.

But with their numbers near the bottom of the NFL in explosive play margin (25th), the Falcons clearly have some work to do here – but specifically on offense. There is no reason why an offense buoyed by an elite talent like Bijan Robinson cannot push into the upper ranks of the league.

The health of Drake London, who only played 12 games due to injury, had a lot to do with this, but the Falcons had little help elsewhere. The star receiver finished his season with 68 receptions for 919 yards and seven touchdowns.

The drop-off from London was stark, and all other receivers combined for just 75 receptions (51.4% catch rate), 892 yards, and three touchdowns.

Kyle Pitts Sr. came along late, but the rest of the wide receiver room was nonexistent for large portions of the regular season. The lack of production here should influence some offseason conversations at the position, with the Falcons looking to the draft and free agency for solutions.

But no variable matters more in the explosive equation than the quarterback.

Michael Penix Jr. is coming off a knee injury that could slow down his development, but his arm talent has all the makings of a player who can push the ball down the field.

Penix showed it in the final weeks of the 2024 season, when he averaged 10.5 air yards per throw (per NextGenStats), which would’ve ranked 2nd in the NFL. He attempted a downfield pass of 10+ yards on an incredible 47.6% of his throws. The Falcons' scoring jumped to 32 points per game over those three weeks.

All of this is to say that Penix has the arm talent to push the ball vertically, even if it didn’t get showcased in 2025.

His deep pass percentage (9.8%) dropped to 18th in the NFL, and the previous regime failed to mix in the play-action game to help him find some success – his rate of 20.3% was 29th in the NFL.

That should change in 2026 with the new coaching staff.

Explosive offense, and incorporating the play-action game, was the first item addressed by new head coach Kevin Stefanski on January 27th.

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“On offense, we want an offense that has the ability to run the football, that is going to be explosive with the pass game off of the run,” Stefanski said. “On defense, we're going to stop the run. We're going to be physical against the run. In the pass game [defensively], we're going to affect the quarterback physically, and we're going to affect him mentally as well with disguise and with the way that we play coverage.”

Explosive plays are wonderful highlights, but they are a product of design, and they define the great teams in the modern NFL. Whether it is the offense or the defense, it all ties back to the point at hand: that explosive play margins led the Patriots and Seahawks to a Super Bowl berth.

The question the Falcons have to ask themselves is whether they are built to follow suit.