Realistic Expectations for Michael Penix Jr. with the Atlanta Falcons in 2025

Expectations can be a fickle thing, and no one in Flowery Branch is carrying more of them heading into 2025 than Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr.

The second-year starter, despite having played just 116 snaps in his rookie season, is expected to take this team to the postseason for the first time since 2017. According to Ray-Ray McCloud, a team that has not had as much as a winning season in that timeframe, is expecting a second-year starter to lead them to the promised land.

Expectations are funny, but that’s how special Penix looked in his three-game cameo last season.

“He was thrown into the fire last year, and we got live reps without even doing much (practice),” wide receiver Drake London said about his quarterback during minicamp earlier this offseason.

“So, that gave me a lot of confidence regardless of anything. He’s a gamer, so I know when he’s out there, he’s going to make the right choices and the right plays.”

On paper, a statline of 775 yards, three touchdowns, and three interceptions with a 58.1% completion percentage is rather pedestrian. That said, it does not do justice to the poise the young quarterback showed in the pocket in critical moments. The numbers struggle to quantify the stakes he played in as a rookie, the arm strength he flashed, or much less the look of sheer potential he gave off.

Still, let’s try.

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Because if we are going to talk expectations for Penix, it’s only fair to set them in context. Maybe it is just a coincidence, but history is not kind to the fourth quarterback taken in virtually any NFL Draft.

Even in those special classes loaded with first-round quarterback talent, like 1983 or 2004, the fourth quarterback selected tends to falter. After the John Elways, Jim Kellys, Eli Mannings, Ben Roethlisbergers, and Philip Rivers, there always seems to be a Tony Eason or JP Losman waiting on the other side.

Going back to 2015, the fourth quarterback selected has featured just one franchise quarterback: Jordan Love. The rest? Journeymen like Justin Fields, or cautionary tales.

Josh Rosen, the 10th overall pick in 2018, is now a student getting his master's degree at UPenn. DeShone Kizer dabbles in NFTs. Christian Hackenberg is a high school football coach.

Sean Mannion is an assistant on the Green Bay Packers’ coaching staff.

In fairness, not all of these players were selected in the top 10 as was Penix, but there is enough of a trend to at least keep a mental note here, and the pattern is hard to ignore. Perhaps fans should even temper their expectations heading into his fourth career start.

Then again, the NFL rarely offers that kind of grace.

The 25-year-old Penix will be expected (there that word is again) to be ready to lead this team out of the gate. He has to be sharp if the Falcons want to contend for a wide-open NFC South.

“When you take over that quarterback spot, there’s a certain humility about playing the position and then it becomes a certain confidence about playing the position and then it’s almost an arrogance about playing the position,” head coach Raheem Morris said last month.

“We’re not there yet, and I don’t think we will be for a little bit. I think he’s at the mode where he’s starting to get the confidence to be able to figure out how to get to that moment and those points… those guys, you feel like can just go out there and win you a football game.”

For those of you who are into advanced metrics, new Chicago Bears head coach Ben Johnson used them to articulate just how important winning the passing game is to winning football games.

“From what I understand, EPA for the passing game has now surpassed [turnover margin],” Johnson said during the annual league meetings in April. “So, whichever team has the passing EPA at the end of a game, they generally win that game. It’s over 80% of the time.”

EPA, or expected points added, is effectively a measure of each play a team runs and how it impacts their potential scoring ability. This metric is widely considered to be the gold standard of measuring a quarterback’s success via advanced metrics.

Penix, while having a minuscule sample size in 2024, ranked 12th in the NFL in terms of EPA/play (minimum 100 plays). He finished 12th despite not taking any first-team reps at practice until the week of his first start. What can he look like with a full offseason as the starter?

History says we need to be cautious. On the other hand, our eyes and even the advanced numbers tell us that he has the chance to be special.

All we know for sure is that the Falcons will need him to be.