Colts’ Decision to Transition Tag Daniel Jones Is Full of Red Flags

Between a lack of financial flexibility and the possibility of still losing its quarterback to another team, Indianapolis has backed itself into a corner.

The Colts placed the transition tag on Daniel Jones on Tuesday, but the decision has some serious drawbacks. | Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

The Colts and Daniel Jones agreed to the transition tag on Tuesday, loosely binding the team and player on a one-year deal worth $6 million less than the franchise tag threshold for NFL quarterbacks. 

And while that most likely means that this is a placeholder while the team simultaneously tracks Jones’s progress from a season-ending ACL injury and ties said progress into a longer-term deal—while also trying to fit Jones’s No. 1 wide receiver, Alec Pierce, into the Colts’ long-term financial plan given that Pierce is a top-rated free agent—it also may be the precursor to a fatal error by the franchise.

Immediately following the news, a handful of red flags about Indianapolis’s decision emerged. 

For one: This is one of the more quarterback-starved offseasons in recent memory. The Steelers, Vikings, Cardinals, Dolphins, Jets, Browns, Raiders and Falcons all need some degree of help at the position. In theory, Atlanta, Minnesota and Pittsburgh offer just as much of a chance of reaching the playoffs as the Colts. All three are coached by established quarterback minds who would run quarterback-friendly systems. The Falcons and Vikings both have equal or superior weapons than the Colts. Arizona is coached by Mike LaFleur, who comes from the same Rams coaching tree as Kevin O’Connell. There is absolutely a world where Jones’s agents are skilled and talented enough to drum up a market for him with one of these teams that forces the Colts to pay above and beyond the transition tag threshold (a transition tag guarantees the signing team a right of first refusal on a contract offer but no draft pick compensation). If the team aims to save money by using the transition tag, it will almost assuredly eat into the savings once a competing offer comes in. 

And then: What, exactly, is Indianapolis’s backup plan if Jones is offered a deal elsewhere that is too good to pass up? A transition tag has not been used on a quarterback since 1996. Why? Because most teams are so horrified at the prospect of losing their quarterback that removing any degree of uncertainty is essential. Riley Leonard and Anthony Richardson are the only other quarterbacks on the Colts’ roster. They signed newly minted grandfather Philip Rivers to play instead of Leonard last year and Richardson has already requested a trade. 

Oh and: The Colts don’t have a first-round draft pick until 2028 and won’t be able to grab a backup option out of desperation until the later rounds. 

While Jones remaining with Indianapolis is the most likely scenario, Indianapolis seems hellbent on arriving at Week 1 caked in sweat, having lived this offseason on the razor’s edge of common sense. There’s certainly something endearing about that—as I’ve said many times, the freewheeling, unafraid Irsay spirit is a critical part of the NFL’s soul—but there is also the non-zero chance that the Colts will be outplayed in a financial chess match that could cost the team both its theoretical starting quarterback and top wide receiver. 

Jones’s health for the 2026 season remains an unknown after he tore his Achilles in December of last year. | Grace Hollars/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

One league source wondered why the Colts were that much more confident in Jones at nearly $40 million per year (and eligible to be signed away) than Malik Willis at $25 million to $30 million per year. Willis was especially effective with that harmonized Green Bay running game that Indianapolis could offer with Jonathan Taylor as well.

The same could be said of Kirk Cousins or even Aaron Rodgers, who would have cost less than Jones and presented fewer immediate health concerns. Kyler Murray, after being released by the Cardinals, can essentially be had for the league minimum. 

To many, the difficult part in stomaching Tuesday is that the move amounts to an all-in position for a team that missed the playoffs in 2025 after starting 8–2. And, of those eight wins at the beginning of the year, only two (over the Chargers and Broncos by a point) were against quality opponents. The rest of those wins were against the Raiders, Dolphins, Titans, Cardinals and Falcons—all teams that fired their respective head coaches at season’s end.  

Replicating that team, assuming that Jones is healthy and doesn’t sign elsewhere is the best-case scenario. And, even reaching that point is going to involve a bit of white-knuckling and financial over-commitment from the Colts.

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