Giants Open as Underdogs vs. Raiders
Just when the New York Giants thought they might secure the opportunity to become a favorite in an NFL game again, a devastating blow last Sunday reversed that course to preserve the underdog trend.
In Week 8, the Giants defense fought another great fight for four quarters with their cross-town rival Jets, limiting them to one-third down conversion and forcing two turnovers to put the team in the driver’s seat for an upset win.
However, the offense flailed all afternoon and went dark in the biggest moments following quarterback Tyrod Taylor’s injury, leading to an indescribable collapse in the final 24 seconds and overtime for a 13-10 loss.
With loads of roster uncertainty compiling as the team the middle of the season and the league’s trade deadline on Tuesday, the only surefire thing will be their status as the underdogs heading out to Las Vegas in Week 9. According to FanDuel, the Giants are visiting the Raiders as a 3-point underdog in their interconference matchup to mark the seventh consecutive week with the underdog line.
All things considered, the standard margin for this game is indicative of the seasons the two franchises have endured to this point. Both sides have battled injuries to key positions, including the quarterback spot, where starters Daniel Jones and Jimmy Garropolo have each missed time with neck and back ailments. They also share two of the most dismal offenses in the NFL, posting total points and yards rankings in the bottom of the power rankings.
For the Raiders, who stand at 3-4 after a barrage of one-score games, including three that resulted in their victories this year, protecting the football has been the biggest issue for their offense.
They rank 31st in total turnovers while forcing the third least amount on the other side of the ball. Nearly all of those turnovers have come in the passing game, and it has kept them within the bottom 14 teams in the other major aerial categories.
On the ground, Las Vegas has been unable to repeat their rushing prowess from last season behind lead ball carrier and 2022 rushing champ Josh Jacobs. A year removed from rallying 1,600 yards to earn his title, the fifth-year back has struggled to gain his 118 carries for 347 yards and two touchdowns, and the result has been a career-worst 2.9 yards per attempt.
Not only is the Raiders top running back on pace for the worst campaign of his professional career, but the entire franchise. Las Vegas stands dead last in both rushing yards (480) and average yards per rush (3.0), which is on par for their worst numbers in five years for those two stats. Scoring in the trenches is just as barren, as the team can’t bully their way to six points with only three successful visits all season.
Even when converting on late downs and extending drives, the Raiders can’t seem to win the battle for field positioning. Las Vegas ranks 25th in third down conversion rate (35%), translating to a 27th-best red zone scoring percentage (41.7%). They have found some success in gambling on fourth downs with a No. 1 overall efficiency rating, but that will be tested against a Giants defense that has clamped down on late down plays in recent weeks.
Meanwhile, the Giants offense hasn’t been able to do anything well behind their makeshift offensive line that offers little to no time for the quarterback. With starting tackles Andrew Thomas and Even Neal still off the field with injuries, Big Blue’s front line has seen some valiant efforts from their replacements but still sit 28th and 21st overall in pass and run block win rates.
The lack of extended protection has led to New York’s passers being handicapped in the passing game and forcing all the onus onto the backfield to pick up the heavy load. Along with being dead last in total points and yards, the Giants rank the same in the same passing categories and average yards per attempt. In the loss to the Jets, that translated to a record-setting -9 passing yards and just two receives with even one catch on the day.
Fortunately, the run game has improved over the last few games with the return of Saquon Barkley from an ankle injury that made him miss three contests. In that span, the former No. 2 overall pick has managed at least 77 yards rushing and an average carry of 3.9 yards. On Sunday, he powered the team with a season-high 36 attempts for 128 yards and an average carry of 3.6 yards, a line that pushed the team to fifth and 15th in both attempts and yards, respectively.
It remains to be seen how Daniel Jones will fare in his first game since being cleared for contact from his neck injury. It’s possible his return brings some semblance of competency back to the passing game and rekindles the production the team saw in Week 7 against the Washington Commanders, with backup Tyrod Taylor playing in his place.
That said, the upcoming meeting with the Raiders will be another where the tougher defense will prevail. The silver and black boast a top-10 unit in total yards, passing attempts, passing yards, and average yards allowed per throw. They conversely struggle to slow down the run with sub-24 rankings that will bode well for Barkley, who looks to add to his potential value for the open market next summer.
Yet, it’s a mirrored situation for Wink Martindale’s crew on the other side. New York has done a solid job at shutting down some of the elite passing offenses in the league with their own top-10 rankings in attempts and touchdowns. Flip it to stopping the run, and those numbers fall steeply into the lower 20s, including 28th in touchdowns and 29th in average yards allowed per rush.
It’s a duel between two teams that average less than 16.0 points per game collectively that’ll set the stage in Vegas on Sunday. Thus, if the Giants stop making the same untimely mistakes that have cost them victories in the past three weeks, perhaps they could steal their second upset in nearly the same period.
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