How Giants Can Win vs Bears Using This Key Statistical Advantage

It is hard to have much faith in the New York Giants (2-7). Injuries, sloppy play, and questionable decision-making have turned a competitive squad that was struggling to close games into an outmatched group in desperation mode for most of the second half.

A couple of rough weeks are making it difficult to appreciate the growth the Giants achieved when they were healthier. Sunday's road game versus the Chicago Bears (5-3) once seemed like a potential upset opportunity on paper. Well, if that is indeed the case, Big Blue probably needs to succeed in one crucial area: third downs.

Jason DeLoach, Maurice Smith, and Andrew Shaver of Pro Football Focus highlighted the element of the game that could define this showdown in Soldier Field, and it heavily involves the franchise's rookie quarterback.

"Since Jaxson Dart became the starter in Week 4, New York’s offense has been one of the league’s best in those situations, converting 46% of third downs — the sixth-highest rate in the NFL — while ranking fourth in EPA per play," PFF's analysis read.

"The Bears’ defense, meanwhile, has been equally strong on third down. It has allowed the fourth-lowest conversion rate (34%) and leads the league in EPA allowed per play, setting up a strength-on-strength battle that could determine the game’s outcome."

Last-place teams generally do not fare well in critical situations, such as third down. Still, Dart's ability to maneuver in the pocket and buy himself time with his legs gives the Giants more flexibility against opposing defenses.

Their 46 percent conversion rate with the 22-year-old under center is even more impressive when one realizes they average a modest 4.2 yards per carry and lack dependable pass-catching options. Chicago's Dennis Allen-coached defense is vulnerable overall -- it allows 28.4 points per game, which ranks even worse than New York's (27.7) -- but the unit holds steady in key moments.

What awaits the NY Giants in The Windy City?

NY Giants' Tyrone Tracy Jr. runs down the sidelines vs. 49ers — Nov 2, 2025; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Giants running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. (29) carries the ball against the San Francisco 49ers during the first half at MetLife Stadium. | Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images

The Bears know their chances for victory are strong if they can make Dart uncomfortable. Starting cornerback Paulson Adebo remains sidelined with a knee injury, leaving the Giants' secondary in a fragile state and paving the way for Caleb Williams to throw for 300 yards for the first time this season.

If the Bears can indeed take advantage of that huge hole, the pressure will be on Dart, Tyrone Tracy Jr., and the rest of New York's offense to keep pace. Fourth-year head coach Brian Daboll and offensive coordinator Mike Kafka must be at their best on the money down.

Although PFF's reasoning makes sense, another matchup worth monitoring will be the Giants' rushing defense versus the Bears' rushing attack.

Big Blue's problems against the run have somehow gotten worse from last year. The team is giving up 150.0 yards on the ground per game, which ranks only above the Cincinnati Bengals. Chicago leads the NFC with 144.4 rushing yards per game.

Dexter Lawrence II, Brian Burns, and the defensive line have to slow down the Bears' backfield, regardless of who is carrying the ball -- D'Andre Swift is questionable due to a groin injury and personal reasons.

The best way to combat this potentially massive disadvantage is by controlling the time of possession. Jaxson Dart must consistently move the chains and deliver on third downs if this languishing squad is going to end its three-game losing streak.

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What awaits the NY Giants in The Windy City?

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