Why the Giants Will Beat the Texans, Why They Won’t, and a Prediction

New York sits atop the NFC East at 3-2-1, but a leaky run defense and a Houston team on the rise make this a tough test, even with J.J. McCarthy’s legs in the mix.

The New York Giants look to get back on the winning track against a surging Houston Texans team. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The New York Giants might have a winning record (3-2-1) right now and lead the NFC East.

But let’s be honest. Aside from their dominant Week 1 showing against the Dallas Cowboys, have the Giants really looked as good as their record suggests?

We’re talking about a team where the phrase “A win’s a win” applies. The Giants barely beat the Tennessee Titans, 12-7, in Week 3. They also had to fight back in Week 4 against the Arizona Cardinals, who led 24-19 at one point.

The tie against the Commanders? That one was a gift. If Jayden Daniels and Dan Quinn don’t have that brain blip, the Commanders likely win, despite the Giants roaring back from a 19-6 deficit.

And last week? We’re sorry, but the Giants had no business losing to the New Orleans Saints as badly as they did. And again, make no mistake: the Giants lost that game because they were their own worst enemy, as shown by the sloppy play they put on film.

But it’s funny how the football gods work. The Giants, regardless of what they do against the Houston Texans this week, will remain in first place in the division.

They have a chance, albeit a difficult one, to get back to looking like the team they were in Week 1, even though they’ve since lost a lot of key personnel, all of whom played in that win: quarterback Jaxson Dart, returner/receiver Braxton Berrios, outside linebacker Brian Burns, and inside linebacker Tremaine Edmunds.

So what’s the goal this week if the Giants want to pull off an upset win over the Texans on the road?

Consistency.

“We’ve been practicing well the last few weeks,” head coach John Harbaugh said. “I think practice has been improving every single week, which is the mark of a team that has got a chance to do something. You’ve got to keep improving.

“So, we are on track to do that. I’m looking forward to it showing up in terms of consistency. If we’ve been anything, we’ve been inconsistent.”

It’s really that simple. The question is, will the Giants finally find the consistency that’s eluded them since that Week 1 game?

Why the Giants Will Beat the Texans

The Texans might be on a roll, having won their last two games, but they still have a few flaws that could work to the Giants’ advantage.

For one, the Texans’ offensive line ranks 27th in the PFF pass-blocking efficiency rating metric. The unit has allowed 71 quarterback pressures, tied for third-most in the league. Left tackle Aireontae Ersery has allowed 20 quarterback pressures, per PFF, tied for fourth-most in the league among left tackles.

Giants defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson has turned up the heat on opposing quarterbacks in recent weeks. This year, opposing quarterbacks have completed only 54.1% of their pass attempts against the Giants’ blitz, the fourth-lowest completion rate in the league.

Of course, the key is for the Giants to stop the run, something they haven’t done consistently in recent weeks. So we’ll see if Wilson’s calling out his defensive players for not running to the ball lights a fire underneath them.

Offensively, the Giants need to get their running game going, and the hope is that switching to quarterback J.J. McCarthy will help. This more mobile quarterback will discourage the Texans from loading up the box and start accounting for McCarthy as a runner.

More importantly, McCarthy’s ability to scramble away from trouble could help the Giants’ ailing offensive tackles, Andrew Thomas and, if he plays, Jermaine Eluemunor, against that Texans pass rush.

Per Next Gen Stats, since 2025, McCarthy has scrambled 19 times for 185 yards and three touchdowns, a 9.7 yards-per-carry average, which is a league high among quarterbacks with a minimum of 15 carries.

If McCarthy can buy time, he stands a chance at connecting with receiver Malik Nabers or tight end Isaiah Likely, both of whom have been the most frequently targeted players on offense for the Giants over the last few weeks.

Why the Giants Will Lose to the Texans

I touched on it a bit above, but I’ll say it again here. The Giants have to stop the run.

Texans’ top running back, David Montgomery, has been sidelined with a groin injury, but Woody Marks has stepped up in his place. Marks is an explosive running back who has averaged almost four yards per rush over the last two weeks. He also has six catches for 47 yards over that span.

The Giants’ run defense? Not good at all. Big Blue has allowed opponents 135.5 rushing yards per game this year, and their 5.0 yards per carry allowed is the second-worst average in the league.

If the Giants can’t stuff Marks and the Texans’ running game, it won’t matter what pass-rush plan they have this week. And until the unit shows it has cleaned up the missed tackles (13 last week, seven against the run per PFF), that aspect of the game will remain the team’s Achilles heel.

Prediction

At the start of the season, I had this game down as a loss and nothing — not even the Texans’ 2-4 record or the Giants’ 3-2-1 start — has changed my mind.

The Texans have been coming into their own lately, and the Giants, aside from their Week 1 win over Dallas, have barely gotten by in their other wins and in their tie against Washington.

The Giants will fight — that much I am certain of — and I hope this doesn’t turn into the ugly rout that I fear it could become.

Texans 30, Giants 17

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