Why The Giants Will Beat the Cowboys, Why They Won't, and a Prediction

Before the regular season kicks off, fans, analysts, coaches, and players can operate behind a veil of optimism. Every success is a reason to get excited about the upcoming year, and every failure is an opportunity for growth. As the New York Giants are about to learn, reality sets in quickly in Week 1.

Big Blue will take on the Dallas Cowboys in their regular-season opener. Both teams have enjoyed their fair share of offseason hype after changes to their coaching staffs and rosters.

While it's a long season, this Week 1 matchup will offer an early look at the true state of the two NFC East squads. So what is the confidence level surrounding the Giants’ chances of coming out on top?

Why the Giants Will Win: Ground and Pound

New York Giants running back Cam Skattebo is projected to lead the Giants' rushing attack against Dallas. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

If the Giants are going to win this game, they need to control the pace with their rushing attack. The Cowboys had one of the worst run defenses in the NFL last season, allowing 0.05 EPA per rush attempt.

This past preseason, under new defensive coordinator Christian Parker, things didn’t look that much improved in the run game. Dallas allowed an average of 4.8 rushing yards per attempt, fourth-highest in the league, for an EPA of -0.23.

And opponents were successful on 60% of their third-down conversion attempts against Dallas when they ran the ball, tying the Dallas defense for the ninth-worst mark in the league.

The Giants have poured resources into their running game this offseason, drafting right guard Francis Mauigoa and signing fullback Patrick Ricard to help blow open holes for the running backs.

New York is also getting Cam Skattebo back from injury. Per the team’s unofficial depth chart, Skattebo figures to be the lead running back this week while other reps will be sprinkled among Najee Harris, Tyrone Tracy Jr., and Devin Singletary.

By consistently staying ahead of the sticks with early-down runs, the Giants can manage the clock and take a lot of the onus off their passing offense that may or may not have receiver Malik Nabers in the lineup.

Why the Giants Will Lose: The Run Defense

New York Giants defensive tackle DJ Reader is solid against the run but what about the depth behind him and the starters? | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Giants are rolling with DJ Reader, Shelby Harris, and Chauncey Golston as their projected starting defensive front, but the depth behind them remains a concern, particularly against the run.

This past preseason, the Giants allowed 232 rushing yards to opponents, the fifth most in the league. Opponents averaged 3.6 yards per carry, which was the seventh-highest mark in the league.

And per PFF data, the Giants were in the top-10 in highest average yards per rush before contact (1.57, sixth place) and average yards per rush after contact (2.02, second place).

While it’s true that Reader and Harris didn’t play all summer, it’s not their presence in the lineup that is the concern. It’s knowing that they won’t play 100% of the defensive snaps and that the depth, which was largely responsible for the less-than-impressive run defense numbers, will eventually have to spell those two key defensive linemen.

Big Blue may benefit from the absence of Cowboys left guard Tyler Smith, who is expected to miss 4-6 weeks with a thumb injury.

Still, the Giants need the guys behind Reader and Harris (the latter of whom was on this week’s injury report with a knee issue, by the way) to control the point of attack.

Prediction: The Giants Will Prevail

New York is 1-5 in regular-season openers since 2020, with their last win coming in 2022 when they beat the Titans in a year that, perhaps by no coincidence, also saw them reach the postseason.

Even more concerning: that stretch, which has also seen two head coaches lead the team, has seen every loss come by two or more scores, and the last three losses (2023-2025) saw the Giants fail to score double-digit points.

That changes this year under new head coach John Harbaugh, who has worked to ensure the team is not only physically ready for a full three-hour grind, but mentally, too.

A win against Dallas would make it two games in a row for the Giants, who last beat the Cowboys in Week 18 of last season. The Giants haven't beaten Dallas in consecutive games since 2015-2016, when they won three straight.

That changes this week in a squeaker.

Giants 27, Cowboys 24

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