Analyst Responds with Victory Lap on Jaguars' Brian Thomas Jr.

Buckle your seatbelt for this one: The NFL draft -- which annually produces higher television ratings than the NBA and NHL playoffs -- has spawned an aggregator story about aggregators.

A year ago, former NFL quarterback Chris Simms shared what many considered a hot take. He said Brian Thomas would outperform Marvin Harrison during the wide receivers’ rookie seasons.

NFL teams seemed to disagree, considering that the Cardinals took Harrison fourth overall. Two picks later, the Giants drafted Malik Nabers at 6 and Chicago followed with Rome Odunze at 9. After a run on linemen, Jacksonville and former GM Trent Baalke finally chose Thomas at 23. Clearly, Thomas was in a consensus lower tier of receivers – according to scouts.

And according to aggregators like Ben Axelrod from Awful Announcing, the draft analysis of Simms “isn’t exactly an area where he gets the benefit of the doubt for ranking Thomas ahead of Harrison.”

Simms, whose son took flak at school after Simms predicted Thomas would outshine Harrison, said he took Axelrod’s article personally.

“So, that's where there is a little more pressure on this year because we are going to take a little bit of a victory lap and I hope I get this year's right because you know mine are not going to be exactly what everybody has told you,” Simms said on Tuesday’s edition of the Unbuttoned podcast.

“That's not what I am and it's not that I try to do that. I work hard and hopefully find you guys that people don't know or think about. That's what I really love to do. I'm not trying to get clickbait and that's where last year's comments pissed me off a little bit.”

The issue, of course, is the objective statistics reveal that Simms was correct. Thomas (87 catches for 1,282 yards and 10 touchdowns) actually had a better rookie season than Harrison (885 yards and eight touchdowns on 62 receptions). Now, whether their rookie seasons correspond with their career production is obviously undetermined.

For the record, before last year’s draft, Simms ranked wide receivers in the following order. Nabers and Thomas were in Tier 1, “explosive WR1s.” Harrison was alone in Tier 2, “no bust; NFL ready.” And Tier 3 consisted of Odunze and Roman Wilson, “high-end skillsets.” Wilson went in the third round to Pittsburgh and didn’t see the field as a rookie with ankle and hamstring injuries.

This year, Simms lists Travis Hunter alone in Tier 1, Kyle Williams, Tetairoa McMillan and Jaylin Noel in Tier 2, and Tre Harris alone in Tier 3.

Simms’ film study correctly predicted C.J. Stroud would perform better than Bryce Young in 2023. Simms also ranked Justin Jefferson – the fifth wide receiver selected in 2020 – as his No. 1 wideout, ahead of the four players drafted before him that spring: Henry Ruggs, Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb and Jalen Reagor.

And for the times when Simms wasn’t correct – just like countless scouts and general managers who’ve missed in the past – Axelrod laid it out last year.

“Throughout his career as an analyst, the former Texas star has made a habit of going against the grain with takes like ranking Zach Wilson ahead of Trevor Lawrence in 2021, not including Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson in his top five wide receivers in the 2022 class and touting Will Anderson Jr. — another consensus top prospect — as his No. 5 edge defender just a year ago.”

Simms openly admits when he’s wrong. And perhaps the best take came from Simms’ NBC Sports producer.

“This isn't just about a victory lap or freezing cold take,” Pete Damilatis tweeted Tuesday. “When it comes to the draft, which everyone agrees is an inexact science, maybe we should give space to those who go against the groupthink (instead of dismissing it as clickbait).”

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