2021 NFL Draft: Pre-Free Agency 1st-Round Mock — Who Do the Jaguars Select?
The 2021 NFL Draft is over two months away, but that doesn't mean the draft process isn't full-steam ahead.
With all 32 NFL teams now in offseason mode, scouts, coaches, and general managers throughout the NFL are breaking down the tape of hundreds of prospects who will soon be the next generation of NFL stars.
There will be a lot of player movement between now and the draft due to free agency, which begins on March 17, but we are going to take a try at projecting how April's draft could shakeup before we see teams spend big or release key players.
So, who lands where in this pre-free agency first-round pick draft? The No. 1 pick is obvious, but what do the Jaguars do at No, 25? We answer these questions below.
1. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-15): Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence
This pick doesn't require much (any?) explanation. The Jaguars need a franchise-savior at quarterback more than arguably any other team in the NFL right now, and Lawrence is the best quarterback in this year's class. You can read more here about what Lawrence does on the field that makes him the best option at No. 1 overall, but his blend of intangibles, physical tools, and processing ability pre- and post-snap.
2. New York Jets (2-14): BYU QB Zach Wilson
If I was making this for the Jets in April, Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields would be the pick here. But Joe Douglas will be the one selecting for the Jets in April, and all signs as of now indicate the NFL community sees BYU's Zach Wilson as the No. 2 quarterback behind Lawrence. Wilson is still a good prospect in his own right, offering the ability to extend plays and make throws to all levels of the field.
3. Miami Dolphins (10-6; from HOU): Alabama WR DeVonta Smith
The value isn't very good here but we are working under the assumption the Dolphins want to add more weapons to their offense to set 2020 first-round pick Tua Tagovailoa up for success. Smith isn't the prototypical receiver to go in the top-3 due to his slender frame and below-elite speed, but he is as polished as any receiver who has entered the draft in recent years and was college football's hardest cover in 2020.
4. Atlanta Falcons (4-12): Ohio State QB Justin Fields
The Atlanta Falcons will likely roll with Matt Ryan in the first season of the Arthur Smith/Terry Fontenot era, but it is never too early to look for a successor. The Falcons would be getting a top-notch quarterback prospect in Fields who can sit behind Ryan to develop early in his career before eventually taking over.
5. Cincinnati Bengals (4-11-1): Oregon OT Penei Sewell
Few quarterbacks were harassed as much last year as Bengals' rookie passer Joe Burrow. The Bengals have a solid left tackle in Jonah Williams, but they had arguably the worst starting right tackle in the NFL last season and Burrow is enough of a reason to feel content with using a top-five pick on what would amount to a right tackle. Penei Sewell is pro-ready and should be able to step in and provide Burrow with a strong presence on his right side right away.
6. Philadelphia Eagles (4-11-1): Alabama CB Patrick Surtain II
It is nearly impossible to judge which way the Eagles are going to go here. They don't have a bonafide quarterback of the future -- or even one for the present -- and they have holes all over an aging and expensive roster that will be overturned before the draft. We opt to give them Alabama's Patrick Surtain II in this scenario, giving them an immediate starter across from Darius Slay who the secondary can eventually be built around.
7. Detroit Lions (5-11): LSU WR Ja'Marr Chase
The Lions have nearly their entire wide receiver room from 2020 set to hit free agency in March. The Lions have countless other needs throughout the roster, but Ja'Marr Chase could give them a potential replacement for Kenny Golladay. Chase should be perfectly set to explode onto the scene once the Lions figure out the quarterback position moving forward, as well.
8. Carolina Panthers (5-11): NDSU QB Trey Lance
Few teams seem as discontent with their quarterback situation this offseason than the Carolina Panthers. Teddy Bridgewater is a low-ceiling starter whose floor even dipped considerably in 2020, leading to the Panthers needing to find their quarterback of the future sooner than later. Lance doesn't have a ton of experience but he has arguably the best tools of any quarterback prospect in this year's class.
9. Denver Broncos (5-11): Virginia Tech CB Caleb Farley
The Broncos had a glaring need at the cornerback position before they released veteran cornerback A.J. Bouye. Now, they have one of the NFL's most limited cornerback units in terms of simple depth, which should necessitate a pick like Virginia Tech's Caleb Farley. Farley is arguably the best athlete at cornerback in this entire class and has the tape to back up his lofty draft hype.
10. Dallas Cowboys (6-10): Northwestern OT Rashawn Slater
Tyron Smith has battled injuries for the last several seasons and is set to enter Year 11 in 2021. At age 31 and coming off a neck surgery that ended his 2020 season, there is reason to believe the Cowboys' best bet would be to build up the offensive line as a unit now while also finding Smith's eventual heir apparent at left tackler. They do that here with Slater, who is one of the draft's cleanest prospects in terms of strengths and weaknesses.
11. New York Giants (6-10): Alabama WR Jaylen Waddle
The Giants need to find out the answer on Daniel Jones soon -- but regardless of whether he is the franchise quarterback the team desperately needs, the Giants need to add some serious firepower to their offense. Jaylen Waddle is a threat to score every time he touches the ball thanks to terrific speed and agility. He also doubles as an elite punt returner, likely raising his stock even more in the eyes of a former special teams coach like Joe Judge.
12. San Francisco 49ers (6-10): South Carolina CB Jaycee Horn
Take one look at the 49ers' projected cornerback room for 2021 and you will quickly see why Jaycee Horn comes off the board this early. Badly needing to add talent to a barren position group, the 49ers land a highly physical and fiery cornerback who is a perfect fit for their scheme. This may seem like a reach to some, but it is a strong marriage between prospect and landing spot when considering San Francisco's team needs and Horn's exciting skill set.
13. Los Angeles Chargers (7-9): Virginia Tech OT Christian Darrisaw
The Chargers have one of the NFL's top assets under center in offensive rookie of the year Justin Herbert, but now they need to protect their prized signal-caller. Offensive tackles Sam Tevi and Trey Pipkins were not up to snuff in 2020, making Virginia Tech's Chrisitan Darrisaw a logical pick here. Darrisaw is a people-mover in the run game and has a Pro Bowl ceiling as a pass blocker.
14. Minnesota Vikings (7-9): Michigan EDGE Kwity Paye
Minnesota swung big on Yannick Ngakoue last offseason in hopes of solving their pass-rush predicament, but Ngakoue didn't even spend half the season with the Vikings following them shipping a second-round pick to the Jaguars for him. Minnesota's pass rush was completely neutralized for much of 2020 and the future prospects of the defensive line aren't very bright unless they make a big investment. The uber-athletic Kwity Paye would do just tha. He would also land with a terrific coach for his unpolished skill set in Mike Zimmer.
15. New England Patriots (7-9): Penn State LB Micah Parsons
Micah Parsons' draft stock is one of the toughest to gauge for numerous reasons, ranging from a lack of a 2020 season due to opting-out, the diminished value of off-ball linebackers in the top-10, and off-field question marks that will follow him throughout the draft cycle following allegations of hazing. With that said, this feels like a logical spot for the athletic and productive linebacker. He is a modern inside linebacker, equipped with the power and strength to stuff the run inside and the speed to chase plays down on the perimeter, giving the Patriots a building block in the middle of their defense.
16. Arizona Cardinals (8-8): Florida TE Kyle Pitts
Kyle Pitts' "fall" ends here. In reality, Pitts is one of the most talented players in the entire class but it is highly unlikely that all NFL teams view his hybrid skill set in a positive light. While some see a receiver/tight end hybrid who can contribute to the passing game no matter where he is aligned, others may see a player who doesn't fit in either role. We think the Cardinals would be more than forward-thinking enough to find a role for Pitts early on, and he would fill a big hole on the offensive depth chart.
17. Las Vegas Raiders (8-8): Tulsa LB Zaven Collins
The Raiders paid two linebackers last offseason, but we think Mike Mayock and Jon Gruden go back to the well in April with Tulsa's Zaven Collins. The need may not be there, but no player represents what Gruden and Mayock have valued in players more than Collins, who provides versatility as a blitzer and pass-defender. He is a tough, gritty player who can wear multiple hats and get to the passer, something the Raiders badly need in the front seven.
18. Miami Dolphins (10-6): Notre Dame LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah's best NFL fit is to be determined, which is just another way to say he is the perfect defender for a Brian Flores defense. Flores has shown the ability to put positionless players on the field and guide them to great success in the past, and he could do that with Owuski-Koramoah, a linebacker/safety tweener. He is one of the most explosive players in this year's entire class and would give the Dolphins an exciting name to build the middle of their defense around.
19. Washington Football Team (7-9): Alabama QB Mac Jones
This is a pick that is made more out of necessity and desperation than anything else. Washington needs to find a Day One starter at quarterback this offseason but they won't be able to pick one of this year's top prospects at the position unless they trade up. In this scenario, they stay put and take the safe and reliable Mac Jones, who was one of the nation's top passers last year as he showed off elite accuracy and command of the defense.
20. Chicago Bears (8-8): Texas OT Samuel Cosmi
The Bears still need an answer at quarterback, but they don't have a real chance to find that answer in the draft unless they move up. As a result, we have them settling elsewhere but coming away as big winners, selecting Texas offensive tackle Samuel Cosmi. Cosmi is extremely efficient and reliable on the blind side and would give the Bears an upgrade over Charles Leno Jr.
21. Indianapolis Colts (11-5): Notre Dame OT Liam Eichenberg
Indianapolis grits their teeth after missing out on Samuel Cosmi, opting instead to take Notre Dame's Liam Eichenberg to protect Carson Wentz. Eichenberg doesn't have the high ceiling of other top tackle prospects in this year's class, but he is battle-tested and pro-ready. The Colts need a left tackle who can step in right away and not be overwhelmed, and that is Eichenberg.
22. Tennessee Titans (11-5): Texas EDGE Joseph Ossai
The Titans couldn't buy a pressure on the quarterback last year, even with the addition of Jadeveon Clowney. For as much as the Titans have prided themselves on touch trench play in the past, their defensive line simply wasn't good enough in 2020 and the biggest reason for this is due to their gaping hole at edge defender. Joseph Ossai plays with his hair on fire and just seems like the type of pass-rusher that Mike Vrabel would love.
23. New York Jets (2-14; from SEA): Georgia EDGE Azeez Ojulari
When is the last time the Jets haven't needed an edge rusher? The Jets finally put the question to rest in this scenario, taking Georgia's Azeez Ojulari. For those who may say he isn't a fit for Robert Saleh's 4-3 defensive scheme, we point you directly at San Francisco's Dee Ford. Like Ford, Ojulari doesn't have prototypical size or length but he is one of the most athletic players on the field and knows exactly how to use this advantage to attack quarterbacks.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4): Oklahoma State OT Teven Jenkins
The Steelers have plenty of holes on offense, but the only one that rivals the importance of quarterback is left tackle. Starting tackle Alejandro Villanueva is a free agent in 2021 and the Steelers have limited salary cap space to help them find a replacement. Teven Jenkins played right tackle at Oklahoma State, but we project him to the Steelers here because he is hands-down the best offensive line prospect available who can play tackle.
25. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-15; from LAR): Alabama DT Christian Barmore
The Jaguars got zero production from their interior defensive line in 2020 despite some reliant efforts from DaVon Hamilton and Doug Costin. Taven Bryan is a bust and the free agency market at the position is limited, so we give the Jaguars Alabama's Christian Barmore in this scenario. Barmore has the traits to play all over the defensive line and has a high ceiling as a pass-rusher, making him an easy pick for a Jaguars team that needs defensive line reinforcements almost as badly as they need a quarterback.
26. Cleveland Browns (11-5): Miami EDGE Jaelan Phillips
Jaelan Phillips is arguably the best pass-rusher in the 2021 draft class, but chances are he slips down the board a bit due to a lengthy injury history. Despite this, we project the Browns to take him in the first-round to pair with Myles Garrett and give Cleveland an explosive pass-rushing duo to center their defensive attack around. The Browns have larger needs at safety, but Phillips is too good to pass up on here.
27. Baltimore Ravens (11-5): Minnesota WR Rashod Bateman
No team needs more help on the perimeter than the Baltimore Ravens. Lamar Jackson deserves his own fair share of the blame for how Baltimore's passing offense has failed to develop, but it is hard for him to get the job done when defenses know they don't have to respect his weapons. Rashod Bateman might not be elite in any one area, but he has every trait to be a productive Day One starter on the outside.
28. New Orleans Saints (12-4): Miami EDGE Gregory Rousseau
With Trey Hendrickson set to hit free agency and Marcus Davenport failing to live up to the Saints' lofty trade up for him from 2017, we have the Saints attacking the defensive line and taking Miami's Gregory Rousseau. Rousseau exited college as a productive but raw pass-rusher and may not be able to be relied upon from Week 1's first snap, but he has inside/out pass-rush versatility and enough physical tools to make him worth the gamble here.
29. Green Bay Packers (13-3): Alabama OT Alex Leatherwood
The Packers just had to release right tackle Rick Wagner to clear cap space, and swing tackle Billy Turner isn't an appropriate answer to protect either of Aaron Rodgers' edges. Alex Leathwoord is a bit lumbering at times but he is an elite run blocker and has the size, length, and temperament to put his athletic deficiencies on the back burner.
30. Buffalo Bills (13-3): Alabama RB Najee Harris
One year after watching Josh Allen grow into an MVP candidate, the Bills give him even more support. Buffalo's leading rusher, Devin Singletary, rushed for just 687 yards and two touchdowns in 2020 and hasn't taken hold of the job like the Bills have likely hoped he would. Najee Harris provides value as both a rusher and pass-catcher and is more physically talented than last year's first-round running back, Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
31. Kansas City Chiefs (14-2): USC OT Alijah Vera-Tucker
Do the Kansas City Chiefs need new starting guards or tackles for the 2021 season? This is a question that has yet to be answered due to a few loose ends among Kansas City's offensive linemen, but it is clear the Chiefs need to make a long-term investment in some protection for Patrick Mahomes one way or the other. Alijah Vera-Tucker projects best as a guard but showed in 2020 he could play offensive tackle with success. For a team with as many questions along their line as the Chiefs, a player like Very-Tucker who can provide multiple answers could be immensely valuable.
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5): Iowa DT Daviyon Nixon
It is difficult to find many areas of need on Tampa Bay's roster. Perhaps they don't retain Chris Godwin or Shaquil Barrett, but as of now it looks like the odds are higher that each will return in 2020. If this is the case, then it makes sense for Tampa Bay to address the middle of its defensive line and find a replacement for Ndamukong Suh. Daviyon Nixon was one of college football's most disruptive defensive linemen in 2020 and would give the Buccaneers a high-ceiling defender next to Vita Vea.
