ESPN Offers Rookie Year Projection For Jaguars' Brian Thomas Jr.

How many yards and touchdowns could Brian Thomas bring to the table in 2024?

Jan 2, 2023; Orlando, FL, USA; LSU Tigers wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. (11) stiff arms the defense during the first half against the Purdue Boilermakers at Camping World Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-USA TODAY Sports / Matt Pendleton-USA TODAY Sports

The Jacksonville Jaguars are going to be relying on first-round wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. quite a bit in 2024,

But will it be enough to buck recent historical production? Time will tell just how quickly it takes the No. 23 pick and LSU star to acclimate to the Jaguars' offense and playing against NFL defenders. Still, there is a Calvin Ridley-sized hole to be filled.

So, what would a reasonable stat line look like for the first Jaguars' wide receiver selected in the first round in a decade? ESPN's Mike Clay took a look at potential rookie statistical leaders, and Thomas Jr. came up with the third-best production of the rookie receivers with 814 yards and five touchdowns.

Thomas comes behind Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers, but does rank in front of Keon Coleman and No. 9 pick Rome Odunze.

"Thomas and Coleman lead a list of 13 additional WRs picked in the first three rounds of April's draft. The outlook for receivers selected after pick No. 20 but prior to the fourth round is solid yet unspectacular. Since 2011, there are 135 receivers who fit that bill and played at least one snap as a rookie. Of those 135, 22 (16.3%) reached 800 receiving yards and 21 (15.6%) reached seven receiving touchdowns. This is something to keep in mind when considering the upside of Coleman (whose optimistic projection stems from Buffalo's Josh Allen-led offense and wide-open WR depth chart), Thomas, Xavier Worthy and Xavier Legette.

- Mike Clay, ESPN

Thomas caught 28 passes for 359 yards and two touchdowns as a freshman in 2021. In 2022, Thomas caught 31 passes for 361 yards and five touchdowns before exploding in 2023.

In his breakout season in 2023, Thomas caught 68 passes for 1,177 yard and 17 touchdowns, averaging 17.3 yards per catch.

"Brian is a young man, I think he had 22 targets over 20-plus yards and scored 15 touchdowns on those. He’s an explosive athlete, he can help open up the field a little bit," Jaguars general manager Trent Baalke said after the Jaguars selected Thomas at No. 23.

"He’s certainly a younger receiver for Trevor [QB Trevor Lawrence] to build around and our offense to build around. There were a lot of positives to the pick, a lot of time and energy went into it. I feel good about where we’re at.”

"Great size, great size. He’s big, tall, has a really good route tree and can run all of the routes. Definitely, as you’ve seen, he can take the top off," Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson said after the draft.

"He’s going to see some different coverages too, he’s going to see a little bit better secondary guys. The SEC has good coverage guys, but he was going to see more defenses, different defenses. Those are things, as coaches, we will scheme up for him.”

If Thomas were to end 2024 with 814 yards and five touchdowns, he would rank second in Jaguars' rookie history in yards and touchdowns. The yards leader is Justin Blackmon in 2012 with 865, while Allen Hurns' six touchdown catches in 2014 rank first in franchise history. Blackmon leads in catches with 64.