4 Reasons Why Jaguars Are a Hard Team to Project

Trevor Lawrence said last weekend that Liam Coen’s Duval has improved dramatically, compared to the awkward version that clouded his introductory press conference in January. The enigmatic expectations for Coen’s version of the Jaguars, however, haven’t changed.

“The Jaguars are a very weird team for me to get a handle on,” said analyst Derrik Klassen on last week’s edition of The Athletic Football Show.

Before purchasing a new, expensive sports car, there’s wisdom in looking under the hood. And the list of four reasons the Jaguars are difficult to predict starts with the driver, Lawrence.

“I think he's a really good player,” Klassen said, “and I think he's better than a lot of people give him credit for. Just a lot of circumstantial stuff has not gone his way. And there are parts of me that want to be excited for the stuff around him.

“Obviously, Brian Thomas Jr. was immediately a top-10 receiver. In the way that we talk about Jayden Daniels as a superstar quarterback immediately for a rookie, Brian Thomas Jr. did that as a receiver. … You draft Travis Hunter. So, in theory, you kind of have what the Bengals are doing, where you've got these two awesome vertical receivers who can push the ball down the field.”

Pushing the ball down the field is something Coen got out of Baker Mayfield last year in Tampa Bay, where part of the veteran’s career season was his best yards-per-pass average, 7.9. Seven of his 40 touchdown passes were 30-or-more yards. But Mayfield also led the NFL with 16 interceptions and Coen has only called plays for one NFL season.

Coen and Mayfield also benefitted from a solid offensive line, led by the left tackle most consider the best in the league, Tristan Wirfs. In comparison, the Jaguars didn’t draft a lineman and enter the season with a questionable line, with a pair of tackles, Walker Little and Anton Harrison, who’ve not played up to their first-round pedigrees. Their interior offensive line, including free-agent center Robert Hainsey and his one 2024 start, is suspect as well.

“This Jaguars unit,” Klassen said, “all they did to supplement their offensive line this year was sign backups. They signed Robert Hainsey and Patrick Mekari. They might be functional, but it's not the same as drafting a Graham Barton in the first round the way the Bucs did last year.”

Functional is a level Jacksonville must exceed, especially on the defense. It’s not a high bar for a unit that finished 2024 ranked last in the league in passing defense and next-to-last in total defense. How the team’s best three defenders – defensive ends Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker, and cornerback Tyson Campbell – mesh with Hunter is a key question. Jacksonville also returns veteran linebackers Foye Oluokun and Devin Lloyd, and signed free agent DBs Eric Murray and Jourdan Lewis.

“The three players there are really good,” Klassen explained, ironically comparing Jacksonville’s defense to the Chargers’ unit the Jaguars came back to beat in the 2022 playoffs. “And I just don't know about the others. … the three best players are awesome. The other players are not good enough. Where does that actually land them?

“So, this could be a team that could crater again, they win six games and they look bad. This could also be the 10-win wild-card team and I just, I can't get a feel for where I actually land on it.”

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