2023 NFL Draft: Jaguars’ Trent Baalke Believes There Is a ‘Best Talent’ in Draft Class

Who is the best bet to be the top player in the 2023 draft class according to Trent Baalke? We have a few guesses.

There is a best player in every single NFL draft, by default.

Sometimes that player goes No. 1 overall. Sometimes, like in the case of Tom Brady, they are picked in the sixth round. Nobody knows who the top player in any class will be right off the bat. That is the reality of scouting.

"I think the real art is in how you value the latter part of the draft and being able to find contributors at that level,. If anyone thought that a guy was picked in the seventh round that goes on to be a starter and a Pro Bowl player, you found them, you really didn’t," Jaguars general manager Trent Baalke said last Thursday.

"The bottom line is nobody in the league valued him at that, but that’s why he was still available, right? As Mr. Haley [former NFL player and executive Dick Haley] used to tell me, that’s not great scouting, that’s luck. You just happened to pick him. If you thought he was going to be that guy like Tom Brady [former QB Tom Brady], you would’ve picked him with the first pick in the draft. 

The question is though, how does the art of scouting and the Jaguars' process of building their boards factor into finding who the best player is in each draft, and who the best fits for them are?

"I think you just put your board together and you really trust the culture fits that you’re looking for because that plays a big role in how they produce, especially those later picks," Baalke said. 

"What’s their makeup How willing are they willing to work? How competitive are they? To overcome what they didn’t have? because if they had it, they would’ve been earlier picks.”

So, is there a top player in this class in Baalke's eyes? His answer was short, but revealing.

“Oh, loaded question. I don’t get paid to address that," Baalke laughed. 

"I think there’s a best talent in this draft, yes, I do.”

The phrasing of Baalke's statement was particularly interesting considering he is a general manager who is very deliberate about what he says. He doesn't say there is a top prospect -- just that there is a most talented player. 

Our best guesses on who that could be: Georgia defensive lineman Jalen Carter or Texas running back Bijan Robinson.

Each comes with its own pair of questions, though dramatically different circumstances will keep each player from being the first player drafted, even if they may be the "best talent" in the draft.

For Carter, the questions are about his off-field concerns. Carter pleaded no contest to two misdemeanor charges of racing and reckless driving after an Athens police investigation concluded that Carter had been racing the car driven by Georgia recruiting analyst Chandler LeCroy. LeCroy and Georgia offensive lineman Devin Willock, the passenger of LeCroy's car, died following a crash in January. 

There is no denying that Carter is an elite talent -- he is the best interior defensive line prospect since Quinnen Williams. But there is a reason some mocks have Carter sliding all the way to the Eagles at No. 10.

Robinson, meanwhile, is one of the cleanest prospects in the class. He was productive, healthy, and showed a diverse skill-set that should make him a weapon on the ground or as a pass-catcher in any scheme.

The issue is he is a running back. The position has been consistently devalued over the last decade-plus, meaning Robinson's draft stock is all over the place. He is commonly ranked as one of the top-3 players in the class, but his pure positon value makes it hard to consider him the top prospect.