Draft Slot Implications Facing the Jaguars in Week 15

How can the Jaguars lock up a top-2 draft pick this weekend?

You know it is December in Jacksonville when the talk is about the future draft slot and not any postseason seeding scenarios, and such is the case again in 2020.

Despite a Week 1 upset of the Indianapolis Colts, the Jaguars sit at 1-12 and on the wrong end of a single season franchise-worst 12-game losing streak. The idea of the 2020 season leading to meaningful games being played toward the latter half of the season was an idea that evaporated in front of our eyes as the Jaguars went into their sputtering losing streak. 

As a result of this, the full attention of the Jaguars' season has shifted from the field to the offseason. The Jaguars have three more games to play, but it is clear that the most important aspects of the franchise's future will take place once the final whistle of the season blows. 

So, what are the draft slot implications ahead of the Jaguars in Week 15? We try to examine it from each angle here. 

For starters, here is the current order of the top-18 picks (non-playoff teams) per Tankathon.com with their current 16-game strength of schedule. 

1) NY Jets: 0-13, .596 

2) Jacksonville: 1-12, .546 

3) Cincinnati: 2-10-1, 531 

4) LA Chargers: 4-9, .488 

5) Dallas: 4-9, .488 

6) Carolina: 4-9, .538 

7) Atlanta: 4-9, .538 

8) Miami (via Houston): 4-9, .546 

9) Philadelphia: 4-8-1, .531 

10) NY Giants: 5-8, .498 

11) Detroit: 5-8, .510

12) San Francisco: 5-8, .546 

13) Denver: 5-8, .558 

14) Minnesota: 6-7, .500 

15) Chicago: 6-7, .505 

16) New England: 6-7, .510

17) Las Vegas: 7-6, .529  

18) Baltimore: 8-5, .507 

So, how could this order become more locked in during Week 15? There are a few scenarios that could play out. The most notable scenario is one in which the Jaguars could actually guarantee a top-2 pick. 

If the Jaguars lose to the Baltimore Ravens in Week 15 AND the Bengals beat the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Jaguars will be locked into a top-2 pick. The Jaguars would be 1-13 in this scenario and the Bengals would be 3-10-1 and 2.5 games behind the Jaguars. Meanwhile, the Jaguars would be unable to finish with as many or more wins as the Cowboys, Falcons, Panthers, or Chargers since their total possible wins would be maximized at three. 

Essentially, the Bengals will almost assuredly pick behind the Jaguars if they win another game. It would take the Jaguars winning three games in a row and finishing 4-12 to pick below the Bengals in this scenario, as a 3-13 Jaguars team would pick before a 3-12-1 Bengals team. 

This clearly changes if the Jaguars win two of their next three games and the Bengals don't win another game. In this case, the Bengals would jump the Jaguars. The Bengals will, of course, pick after the Jaguars if each team loses out to close the season. 

A second scenario on hand is if the Jaguars lose to the Ravens and the 0-13 Jets beat the 9-4 Los Angeles Rams on the road. The chances of this happening are slim to none (at best), but in this scenario, the Jaguars would be owners of the No. 1 pick due to their strength of schedule tiebreaker over the Jets. 

What if the Jaguars beat the Ravens on Sunday and the Bengals lose? Well, there is zero that would change on a one-week basis. A 2-12 Jaguars team would still be slotted to pick ahead of a 2-11-1 Bengals team, so the Jaguars could win on Sunday and remain in the No. 2 spot. 

Winning two of their next three games would put the Jaguars in danger of losing the No. 2 pick to the Bengals, as we discussed before, but otherwise the Jaguars would have to finish the season with a win in each of the next three games to move them out of the top-3. 

In summary, the following implications are set for Week 15: 

• If the Jaguars lose AND the Bengals win, the Jaguars will be guaranteed a top-2 pick
• If the Jets win AND the Jaguars lose, the Jaguars will move to the No. 1 overall pick 

Every other implication is a multi-week one of sorts, meaning any other movement would involve multiple wins or losses. 

If the Jaguars don't lock up a top-2 pick this week due to them and the Bengals both losing, they could do so the next weekend with a loss in Week 16 against the Chicago Bears as it would limit them to a max total of two possible wins. In short, the Bengals need the Jaguars to win two games over the next three weeks to leap them. If the Jaguars lose two or more of those games, a top-2 pick is secured.