Jaguars Trends to Monitor Ahead of The 2020 NFL Draft

Each and every NFL draft is radically different than the last. Every event is its own creation, going by its own set of rules and unfolding its own storylines.

But occasionally, there are patterns and trends that can be tracked on a year-by-year basis, especially when it comes to front office regimes who have been in place for extended periods of time.

When it comes to the Jacksonville Jaguars, this latter point applies in a big way. While there have been changes at head coach, in the scouting and personnel department, and at executive vice president of football operations, there are a few important constants.

General manager Dave Caldwell is entering his eighth draft as the Jaguars general manager, making him one of the longest-tenured general managers in the AFC. In Caldwell's time as the team's general manager, he has made 56 picks and added seven new first-rounders to his resume and to the Caldwell has been with the Jaguars, Jaguars' history.

When an executive is with one team for as long as Caldwell has been with the Jaguars, it is safe to assume some patterns and trends can begin to reveal themselves. Sure, Caldwell has absolutely learned more about the ins and outs of his role since his first draft in 2013, but at the end of the day, most evaluators go back to their main principles.

In an effort to determine what kind of trends Caldwell has developed as the Jaguars' general manager, we take a look back at some his past decisions, and what it could mean for Thursday's first round and the following six rounds.

So, which Jaguars trends are worth monitoring this week? We examine.

1) The Jaguars love SEC football players

You could field an SEC all-star team out of some of the 53 picks Caldwell has submitted since 2013. Of Caldwell's seven first-rounders, five have come from the SEC (Josh Allen, Taven Bryan, Leonard Fournette, Dante Fowler, Luke Joeckel). Out of the 53 picks he has used? A whopping 17 players have been from the SEC, making up a little more than 32% of Caldwell's picks.

This compares to just three picks from the Pac-12, eight from the SEC, eight from the Big 10, and two from the Big 12. When it comes to the five major college football conference, it is clear Caldwell and the Jaguars have a preference for football in the south.

In addition to the track record of first-round selections coming from the SEC, most of Caldwell's recent second-round picks have come from the conference. Four of his seven second-round picks, including four of the last five, have come from the SEC, with Jawaan Taylor, DJ Chark, Cam Robinson, and T.J. Yeldon.

What could that mean this year? Top SEC prospects in the first round who make sense for the Jaguars at picks No. 9 and No. 20 include Andrew Thomas, Jerry Jeudy, Derrick Brown, Javon Kinlaw, Kristan Fulton, Grant Delpit, C.J. Henderson, Justin Jefferson, Henry Ruggs III, and more.

2) Caldwell doesn't make much movement on day one. Day two? Different story.

In Caldwell's previous seven drafts, the Jaguars haven't made a single trade in the first round. No trading up to move aggressively on a prospect, and no trading back to accumulate more picks. Instead, Caldwell and the Jaguars' brass have stayed patient in round one and let the board fall to them.

But in the following two rounds? The Jaguars are anything but patient. Instead, they make a point to target top-ranked prospects on their board who, for whatever reason, may be slipping on draft day.

In recent years, the Jaguars have traded up in the second round to draft Jawaan Taylor, Cam Robinson, Myles Jack, and Allen Robinson, while Caldwell himself stated the team attempted to trade up to select DJ Chark. In addition, the Jaguars traded up in round three to select center Brandon Linder in 2014.

Jacksonville may not make a lot of early moves on the most drama-filled night of the draft, but they aren't afraid to make some form of moves to ensure they land the players of their choice.

3) Caldwell's late-round picks come from a variety of places

While Caldwell's early picks come from the SEC and the other major conferences, he uses late-round picks to go outside his comfort zone and find smaller-school prospects. In 2019, he even did so in the middle rounds when he selected San Jose State tight end Josh Oliver and Murray State linebacker Quincy Williams in the third round.

Which small schools have Caldwell tapped for talent in the drafts final rounds since 2013? In 2016, he drafted Tyrone Holmes from Montana in round six and Jonathan Woodard from Central Arkansas in round seven. In 2015, Caldwell used a seventh-round pick on Neal Sterling, a wide receiver from Monmouth. And in 2013, Caldwell used his first-ever seventh-round pick on Appalachian State cornerback Demetrius McCray.

Caldwell isn't like some general managers who look for small school prospects in the early rounds, aside from when he took UCF quarterback Blake Bortles at No. 3 in 2014 and FIU safety Jonathan Cyprien at No. 33 in 2013, but he isn't afraid to look for diamonds in the rough when it comes to the final few rounds.

4) No interior lineman or free safeties targeted in years. Will that change?

Considering the Jaguars' identities on offense and defense, it is surprising that the two non-specialist positions the team has not drafted in recent years are interior offensive line and free safety.

The Jaguars haven't picked a player at either position since drafting right guard A.J. Cann in the third round and free safety James Sample in the fourth round in 2015. Despite the Jaguars being a run-first team for much of Caldwell's tenure, and despite them employing a scheme which requires high-level safety play on defense, Caldwell has just not put much draft capital into either of these positions in recent years.

Could that change this year? A number of free safeties, such as Delpit, Antoine Winfield Jr., and Ashtyn Davis could be potential Jaguars' targets, while the Jaguars could look for a mid- to late-round interior lineman to serve as an eventual Andrew Norwell replacement.

5) Finding talented underclassmen is key

From 2013 through 2018, every single one of Caldwell's first-rounders was an underclassman who entered the draft early. Josh Allen in 2019 has been the lone exception, and last year's class did consist of the Jaguars taking only one underclassman in general (Jawaan Taylor).

But aside from 2019, Caldwell and Co. have made it a point to find young and emerging talent over seasoned seniors who had spent the last four to five years in school.

19 of Caldwell's 53 picks have been underclassmen, including six first-round picks, six second-round picks, two third-round pickers, and three fourth-rounders. When it comes to Caldwell's premium picks, he more than often looks for juniors instead of seniors.

Could this year be more of the same? Derrick Brown and Javon Kinlaw are two senior options, but most of the other first-round options who have been connected to the Jaguars consist of underclassmen who declared early, meaning this trend will likely continue.

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