2 Final Predictions for Jaguars-Bills Wild Card Showdown

The Jacksonville Jaguars' upcoming first-round faceoff with the Buffalo Bills might be the most difficult game to predict on the Wild Card Weekend slate. The line opened with the visitors slightly favored on the road by 1.5 points. Since then, it's flipped on its head, with Head Coach Liam Coen and his team now laying the point-and-a-half at home.

Clearly, the public isn't too confident about picking this game. It's understandable, considering how evenly matched these teams appeared to be in the regular season. Jacksonville probably has the slight edge on paper, but it's hard to overlook Buffalo's superstar factor with MVP quarterback Josh Allen under center. Here's how I see this one playing out:

Jaguars will win in the margins

Jacksonville Jaguars, NFL, Buffalo Bills, Josh Allen, James Cook — Sep 23, 2024; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) hands off to running back James Cook (4) during the second half against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images | Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

1. James Cook will finish with under 80 yards rushing

Rushing defense has been a huge topic in previewing this game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Buffalo Bills. The two teams might seem evenly matched on most accounts, but the disparity in that specific arena is gaping. The Jaguars were the league's best against the run in yards per game and per carry. Meanwhile, the Bills ranked in the bottom five in both of those categories.

However, Buffalo had the No. 1 ground game on offense, buoyed by an elite running backfield between Josh Allen and James Cook and a beefy offensive line. The battle between the Bills' ground game and the Jaguars' rushing defense could be a meeting of an unstoppable force and an immovable object. I believe the latter will get the upper hand.

Jacksonville Jaguars, NFL, Buffalo Bills, Josh Allen — Sep 23, 2024; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) throws against the Jacksonville Jaguars during the second half at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images | Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

2. Jaguars' defense will keep takeaways streak going

There was a lot of talk about how the Jaguars' defense wouldn't be able to keep forcing turnovers at the rate they began the season at. While they didn't finish with an average of 3.25 takeaways per game as they had in their first four games, they did come in second in the NFL with 31. They had at least one in each of their last six outings, and averaged over two in that span. Jacksonville actually only had three weeks when it didn't force a turnover on defense.

The Bills were middle-of-the-pack in taking care of the ball, tied for 15th in fewest giveaways with 19. All five of their losses this past season came when they committed a turnover, and they were 4-5 overall in games with at least one.

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