AFC South Round-Up Has Jaguars Positioned for Division Crown

The Jacksonville Jaguars are just one win away from claiming the AFC South.

Dec 28, 2025; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) and Indianapolis Colts quarterback Philip Rivers (17) meet on the field at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Grace Hollars-USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images | Grace Hollars-USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images

The AFC South wasn't supposed to play out this way. Coming into the 2025 NFL season, this division was supposed to field one of the weakest playoff teams in the bracket. Then, halfway through the year, it appeared that there would be three teams out of the AFC South to make the postseason.

That crop has since been trimmed down to two, but it could be two teams with 12 wins. The AFC South has turned out to be so competitive that the champion won't be crowned until after the regular-season finale. Here's where it stands after the first 17 weeks of the campaign.

Who will win the AFC South?

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) dives in just short of the end zone as Tennessee Titans defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons (98), linebacker Jaylen Harrell (92) and safety Kevin Winston Jr. (23) pursue during the third quarter at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tenn., Sunday, Nov. 30, 2025. | Andrew Nelles / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

1. Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4, 4-1 in div.)

Last game: 23-17 win @ Indianapolis Colts

Next game: vs. Tennessee Titans

The Jacksonville Jaguars clinched their postseason bid back in Week 16. However, even at 12-4, they don't have the luxury of taking the final game of the regular season off — not if they want to win the AFC South and host a playoff game, at least. If the Jags can beat the Tennessee Titans this Sunday, the division will be theirs. If they lose and the Houston Texans emerge victorious, they'll move down into the Wild Card due to the divisional record tiebreaker.

Indianapolis Colts defensive tackle Adetomiwa Adebawore (95) works to get to Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) on Sunday, Nov. 30, 2025, during a game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. | Grace Hollars/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

2. Houston Texans (11-5, 4-1 in div.)

Last game: 20-16 win @ Los Angeles Chargers

Next game: vs. Indianapolis Colts

Both the Jaguars and the Texans host their final games, with a chance to win the division in front of their hometown fans. However, only Jacksonville controls its own destiny. A victory for the Jags would clinch the AFC South, while Houston needs to beat the Indianapolis Colts and hope that the Titans can pull off the upset in Duval. The Texans have the pleasure of playing against Riley Leonard in Week 18 instead of Philip Rivers, although the former Notre Dame quarterback showed some spunk in his limited time versus Jacksonville back in Week 14.

Houston Texans linebacker Azeez al-Shaair (0) attempts to tackle Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (28) on Sunday, Nov. 30, 2025, during a game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. | Christine Tannous/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

3. Indianapolis Colts (8-8, 2-3 in div.)

Last game: 23-17 loss vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Next game: @ Houston Texans

The Colts are riding a six-game skid. While he's played admirably for a 44-year-old recent retiree, Rivers wasn't able to come in cold and save their playoff run. He gave it one last crack against the Jags last week, even though Indy had been mathematically eliminated after their loss to the San Francisco 49ers in the game prior. Now, Riley Leonard gets to show what he can do with a full set of practices with the first team. Perhaps he'll do Jacksonville a favor and show the Colts' coaching staff that he should have been the starter all along.

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) and Tennessee Titans quarterback Cam Ward (1) embrace after the game at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tenn., Sunday, Nov. 30, 2025. | Andrew Nelles / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

4. Tennessee Titans (3-13, 0-5 in div.)

Last game: 34-26 loss vs. New Orleans Saints

Next game: @ Jacksonville Jaguars

The Titans likely soiled their chances at the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft when they beat the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 16. They could cost themselves a top-five selection with another win in the finale. If Cam Ward musters an upset over the Jaguars while the Washington Commanders and the Cleveland Browns lose, Tennessee will drop to seventh in the draft order.

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