How Brutal Loss to Texans Affected Jaguars' Playoff Chances

It might not feel like it, but the Jacksonville Jaguars are very much still in the playoff hunt. Despite their brutal loss to the Houston Texans, they're still in possession of the seventh seed in the AFC. Their Week 5 win over the Kansas City Chiefs looms large, as they're only in the current playoff picture due to their head-to-head tiebreaker over Patrick Mahomes and company.

Of course, there's still plenty of season left to play. Head Coach Liam Coen and his team absolutely cannot let their devastating defeat in Week 10 linger like a dark cloud over their heads. At 5-4, Jacksonville is still in control of its own destiny.

That's both a blessing and a curse. The Jaguars don't have another bye to collect themselves, as badly as they could have used one after blowing a 29-10 fourth-quarter lead to backup quarterback Davis Mills and the Texans. Things only got worse for the team after they found out that they'd lost Travis Hunter Jr. for the rest of the season after he underwent surgery to repair his LCL. Jacksonville has to shake all of that off, though, if it still wants to make the playoffs.

Jacksonville Jaguars, NFL, Houston Texans, Head Coach Liam Coen, Trevor Lawrence — Nov 9, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) talks with head coach Liam Coen during the first half of a game against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images | Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

Jaguars still in the hunt

At 5-4, the Jacksonville Jaguars are still in decent standing for a playoff spot. However, their margin of error is significantly slimmer now. Half of their remaining eight games are certainly winnable. They still play the Tennessee Titans twice, take on the Arizona Cardinals in Week 12, and host the New York Jets in Week 15.

ESPN has tabbed the Jaguars with a 40 percent chance to earn a postseason bid and just a 10 percent shot to win the AFC South. They still have both of their games against the Indianapolis Colts left on the slate, but their loss in Week 10 widened the gap, with Indy taking care of business versus the Atlanta Falcons in Berlin.

ESPN has essentially locked one of the 8-2 Denver Broncos (92 percent chance to make the playoffs) or the 7-2 Los Angeles Chargers (85 percent) to claim one of the Wild Card berths. Jacksonville's most prominent competitors for the other two bids are the 5-4 Kansas City Chiefs (75 percent), 4-5 Baltimore Ravens (62 percent), and the 5-4 Pittsburgh Steelers (41 percent). The 4-5 Houston Texans stayed alive by upsetting the Jags, but still have just a 19 percent shot at making the postseason.

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