Why the Jaguars Are Poised to Smash Offseason Win/Loss Odds

The Jacksonville Jaguars are presented with a lower-than-expected win/loss total for reasons that are hard to truly grasp.

Oct 12, 2025; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Liam Coen looks on during the first half against the Seattle Seahawks at EverBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Morgan Tencza-Imagn Images | Morgan Tencza-Imagn Images

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- If the Jacksonville Jaguars are looking for more motivation entering 2026, they do not have to look very far.

Sports Illustrated's Gilberto Manzano recently took a look on predicting which teams will and won't hit the over on their win totals, and he is a fellow believer in the Jaguars. But it is the total itself -- just 8.5 wins -- that Manzano has to debate that brings into question what more the Jaguars have to do.

All over/under win totals courtesy of DraftKings.

Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Liam Coen speaks during a press conference at the Miller Electric Center, Monday, April 20, 2026 in Jacksonville, Fla. | Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

"The Jaguars haven’t had the best offseason. They stood on the sidelines for most of free agency and were criticized for reaching for players in the draft, which could explain this low win total for a team that won the AFC South last year," Manzano said. "Maybe there’ll be a letdown in Year 2 with coach Liam Coen and GM James Gladstone, but nine wins seems attainable."

After a 13-4 season, the Jaguars, Liam Coen and Trevor Lawrence are entering 2026 with big expectations. But expectations alone are not the reason the Jaguars are set to easily surpass this win/loss total.

Jaguars Should Smash These Odds

Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Liam Coen laughs during an interview during rookie minicamp at the Miller Electric Center, Saturday, May 9, 2026 in Jacksonville, Fla. Today was the second of a three day camp concluding Sunday. | Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Simply put, even the most skeptical of the Jaguars in 2026 should expect them to get to nine wins. The Jaguars won nine games after their Week 8 bye last season, and Coen has proven he is the kind of coach who can help the Jaguars through an adversity-filled schedule. The Jaguars won 13 games a year ago for a reason, and the most primary of those reasons is still with the team.

Yes, the Jaguars lost big names in Travis Etienne and Devin Lloyd during free agency. But there is reason to believe the Jaguars running game will actually improve this year instead of taking a step back, as long as the Jaguars get the expected improvement from Bhayshul Tuten and a solid season from Chris Rodriguez Jr.

Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Liam Coen speaks during a press conference at the Miller Electric Center, Wednesday, Jan. 14, 2026, in Jacksonville, Fla. | Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Coen and the Jaguars have identified where they want to be better in 2026, which is the first step towards them clearing this win/loss total with ease. Outside of the running game, Coen has made it clear the Jaguars want to improve their downfield passing game compared to a season ago. If there is an area of improvement where Trevor Lawrence can really take the Jaguars to a new level, that would be it.

“Yeah, I think it's not as much more as it is refined and something that we did at the bye that was trying to be very intentional about man, what are the areas in which he's really doing at a high level that we can continue to lean into for the rest of this season?" Coen said on Tuesday after the first day of OTAs.

Jacksonville Jaguars offensive coordinator Grant Udinski, left listens on the headset as Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Liam Coen call a play during the first quarter in an NFL football AFC Wild Card playoff matchup, Sunday, Jan. 11, 2026, in Jacksonville, Fla. Bills lead 10-7 at the half over the Jaguars. [Doug Engle/Florida Times-Union] | Doug Engle/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

"What were those things that are on the shelf for the end of the season that we need to attack right now? One of those being getting the ball down the field a little bit more with throwing the ball, posts, go’s, pushing the ball down the field a little bit more. I know our average depth of target went up towards the second half of the season, but we've got to keep pushing that envelope a little bit especially with him and BT, that connection."

Defensively, the Jaguars might have lost Lloyd but they are gaining a potential No. 1 cornerback in Travis Hunter. Hunter is set to be the Jaguars' top cornerback after he showed elite potential at the position as a rookie, and an expanded role on defense could elevate Anthont Campanile's unit to an important degree.

Dec 28, 2025; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Liam Coen during the second half against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-Imagn Images | Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

Last year, Hunter became the fifth player in the NFL to record 100-plus receiving yards, one touchdown and one pass defensed in a game since at least 1999 when passes defensed began being tracked. He also became the first player to have six receptions and a defensive tackle in a season opener since Deion Sanders in 1996 (nine, three).

Simply put, Hunter has the talent level to be a difference-maker on both sides of the ball. The kind of talent that is not found throughout the NFL very often. If Hunter is able to realize his potential, there is little reason to think the Jaguars won't be even better next season. Maybe they do not hit 13 wins exactly, but they should soar by the 8.5 mark.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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