NFL Data Analyst Projects Third-Place AFC East Finish for Playoff-Bound Jets

The New York Jets are projected to noticeably improve their win total in 2024, and end a 13-year postseason drought in the process.
Oct 1, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Jets head coach Robert Saleh celebrates
Oct 1, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Jets head coach Robert Saleh celebrates / Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
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A third-place finish could be good enough to end the New York Jets' 13-year postseason drought.

NFL data analyst Cynthia Frelund's projected AFC team-by-team win totals proposes such a scenario for 2024.

In Frelund's models, the Jets account for 9.6 wins over the 17-game schedule. That mark would rank New York third amongst AFC East teams, but it'd be good enough to secure the conference's final available Wild Card playoff berth.

The Miami Dolphins' 10.2 wins were enough to unseat the four-time defending division champion Buffalo Bills (10.0). The Bills and Jets would be the No. 6 and No. 7 playoff seeds, respectively, should Frelund's projected scenario happen.

New York hasn't participated in the NFL Playoffs since the 2010 season when Rex Ryan was at the helm, but hopes are high in Florham Park due to the anticipated return of future Hall-of-Fame field general Aaron Rodgers. The four-time NFL MVP is expected to instantly boost the team's offensive output, which ranked 31st in the NFL last season.

The Jets also replaced three starters on the offensive line and added receivers Mike Williams (FA) and Malachi Corley (Round 3). Coupled with New York's vaunted defense, the team should be able to noticeably improve upon its 7-10 record from 2023.

New York moves into Phase 3 of organized team activities on Monday, May 20 in Florham Park. It'll be the first of 10 scheduled spring practices for Rodgers and Co.

No live contact is permitted, but 7-on-7, 9-on-7, and 11-on-11 drills are allowed.

From's Each AFC team's win total projection for 2024 season:

"I am SO looking forward to Week 1, when the Jets head to Santa Clara to face the 49ers. It'll be really cool to see Aaron Rodgers play near where he grew up in his return from injury and in what will be the de facto restart to his Jets career. I played around with my models by equating win totals and volatility to a 100-point scale. The Jets' schedule is almost 23 scale points more favorable than the Bills', which is the biggest disparity between teams that ranked first versus third in their division last season. This shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone, but the Jets' O-line and defensive depth will likely determine the team's ceiling this season."

Ralph Ventre


Ralph, a former college football conference administrator, brings 20 years of media experience to the New York Jets beat. Prior to concentrating on Gang Green, he covered the NCAA Football Championship Subdivision for NFL Draft Bible on FanNation. Ventre remains as an official voter for the Stats Perform FCS Top 25 and the annual legacy awards. The Fordham University graduate is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America. The veteran sports media professional resides in his native state of New Jersey.