3 Jets vs. Bills Matchups That Will Decide If New York Pulls Off the Week 10 Upset

Coming off another disappointing loss, the Jets will look to get back on track when they host the Bills in Week 10. Buffalo has arguably been the best team in the league this season, led by 2024 MVP Josh Allen, who is making a strong case to win another with his performance this season.

Meanwhile, New York is on a four-game losing streak, and head coach Aaron Glenn’s hot seat continues to get warmer with each week. If Glenn wants to save his job, he’ll need to string together a few wins, particularly against the AFC East, where he’s compiled a 0-8 record.

For the Jets to pull off a miracle against the Bills, they must win these three key matchups.

1. Jets’ DL vs. Bills QB Josh Allen

Through nine weeks, Josh Allen is widely regarded as the front-runner for MVP thanks to his dual-threat dominance. The four-time Pro Bowler has been extremely efficient through the air, completing 66.1% of his passes for 2,057 yards, 12 touchdowns, and six interceptions.

He’s been equally dominant on the ground, leading all quarterbacks in rushing yards (285) and rushing touchdowns (9). Allen’s ability to make off-schedule throws, extend plays out of the pocket, and exploit opponents with his mobility makes him a defense’s worst nightmare.

Slowing Allen down will be a challenge for the Jets, considering their defense hasn’t done well this season. However, if New York wants to improve their chances of beating the Bills, it must keep Allen in the pocket and prevent him from hurting the defense with his legs.

We saw the Vikings do this on Monday night against Buffalo by bringing the house on Allen, blitzing him on 68.6% of his dropbacks and limiting him to just 15 yards on the ground. Although Minnesota lost, they held the Bills to their lowest-scoring total of the season (23) and sacked Allen four times.

Byron Murphy Jr. picks off Josh Allen 🔥

(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/8FrX0GWR8f
— ESPN (@espn) November 10, 2026

While the Jets don’t have pass rushers of similar caliber to the Vikings, they’ve had some success generating pressure this season. Through nine games, New York ranks 12th in sacks (22) and 13th in pressure rate (24%). They also boast one of the highest blitz rates, ranking third at 34%.

Simply sending an extra defender won’t be enough to contain Allen. The Jets can’t be undisciplined when blitzing, as Allen can hurt them with his mobility.

New York’s edge rushers must maintain the edge and not over-pursue Allen, something we’ve seen them struggle with against Malik Willis a couple of weeks back. The interior defenders and linebackers must also remain disciplined in their rush lanes and continue attacking the pocket, or the Jets won’t be able to collapse it.

Getting to Allen early will be critical, as we’ve seen him make costly mistakes when under pressure.

After getting to Allen a few times in the first quarter, the Vikings forced him to make an early decision that resulted in Byron Murphy making an incredible interception. If New York can force Allen into playing hero ball, it could create opportunities for turnovers and give the Jets a better chance of pulling off the upset.

2. Jets RB's Braelon Allen & Breece Hall vs. Bills’ run defense

The Jets insisted on keeping Breece Hall for several reasons; one was that he forms a dynamic backfield duo with Braelon Allen. Hall has explosive home-run play ability and is a great receiving back, while Allen is a physical downhill runner who excels at picking up yards after contact.

New York’s offense is at its best when it establishes the run, which opens up opportunities for offensive coordinator Frank Reich to dial up deep shots downfield. That was evident in the Jets’ wins over the Titans and Browns, as well as their narrow defeats to the Dolphins and Raiders. When the running game is clicking, the offense can dictate the tempo and keep opposing defenses on their heels.

However, we’ve only seen Hall and Allen play three full games this season. With Hall back, Reich must make a better effort to utilize both running backs and stick with the ground game, even if it doesn’t produce early. The Jets did this early against the Chiefs last week, particularly during their first few possessions, but abandoned the approach once they were down two scores.

Running the ball will be a challenge against the Bills. Buffalo ranks seventh in rushing yards allowed per game (91.6), 10th in yards per carry (3.9), and is tied for ninth in fewest rushes of 10-plus yards with 20. Over the last four games, they’ve allowed just 269 rushing yards.

Even though New York’s rushing attack hasn’t been as productive this season, ranking 20th in rushing yards per game (105.2), sticking with the run game will be critical in this matchup, along with finding ways to get their runners to the second level.

Braelon Allen and Breece Hall talk. — The Jets shouldn't hesitate to lean on Breece Hall and Braelon Allen this weekend. | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

The Bills use a lot of five-down sets and rank 13th in stacked box rate, per Next Gen Stats. To counter this, New York should emphasize attacking the perimeter and bringing in extra blockers.

Reich has primarily used Jeremy Ruckert and Jelani Woods in multi-tight end sets when running the ball, and the pair have done well as run blockers. However, Reich must also consider doing this with Kenyon Sadiq and Mason Taylor to keep Buffalo guessing and prevent the offense from becoming predictable.

If the offensive line and extra blockers can clear a path for Hall and Allen to get to the outside on counters or sweeps, they could get to the second level and hurt Buffalo with their playmaking ability. Allen, in particular, would benefit from getting to the perimeter, where he has been effective at breaking tackles and picking up extra yardage.

Buffalo allows 3.4 yards after contact per attempt, the third-highest mark in the league. That could play right into Allen’s strengths and give him an opportunity to exploit one of the Bills’ biggest weaknesses.

3. Jets OT Armand Membou vs. Bills OLB Gregory Rousseau

While all eyes will be on David Bailey and Allen, among others, one of the most important individual matchups will be between Armand Membou and Gregory Rousseau.

Through the first eight weeks, Membou made a strong Pro Bowl case, giving up just two sacks and 16 pressures. However, that came to an abrupt halt last week, as he surrendered three sacks and four pressures against a Kansas City pass rush that was tied last in sacks (9) and ranked 29th in pressure rate (19.3%) entering the game.

The Jets desperately need Membou to bounce back this week against Rousseau, who’s been one of the most productive pass rushers this season. The former 2021 first-round selection leads the league in pressures (51), per Pro Football Focus, and is tied for second in sacks with eight.

Greg Rousseau's 8th sack of the season ties him for second in the league 😤

BUFvsMIN on ESPN⁰Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/OyIU25yJbs
— NFL (@NFL) November 10, 2026

New York’s top priority should be limiting Rousseau’s impact, as Buffalo’s other pass rushers have largely struggled to generate pressure. Behind Rousseau, Bradley Chubb and Deone Walker have combined for 50 pressures and just 2.5 sacks.

Even though Membou struggled last week, the Jets should not overreact to one bad outing and should have complete trust in their second-year tackle to hold his own against Rousseau. However, in obvious passing-down situations, New York should give him some extra help through double teams and have their tight ends chip Rousseau before releasing into their routes.

Reich also must consider mixing in some quick throws or screen passes to neutralize Rousseau and give time for Geno Smith to take downfield shots. Limiting Rousseau’s impact will be critical to giving Smith time to operate and preventing them from being in obvious passing situations.

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