The Hidden Risk the Jets Acquiring Geno Smith Creates

After endless rumors and speculation, the New York Jets acquired Geno Smith from the Las Vegas Raiders to try to come in and stabilize the quarterback position for the franchise.

It was a good deal. There's no denying that fact. The Jets sent a sixth-round pick to the Raiders in exchange for Smith and a seventh-round pick. In the process, the Jets also are paying just over $3 million to Smith in 2026 with the Raiders fronting the vast majority of the bill. Las Vegas owes Smith $16.2 million. The Jets got a starting-caliber quarterback who fits the Frank Reich mold for a very cheap cost. The deal is a win and raises the floor of the franchise.

With that being said, let's try to play Devil's Advocate here. Smith is coming off a season in which he led the league with 17 interceptions in 15 games. That also wasn't necessarily an outlier. In 2024, he threw 15 interceptions in 17 games. So, the Jets are getting someone who isn't afraid to chuck it downfield. That's a risk in itself.

Geno Smith is better than what the Jets had

Dec 28, 2025; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Geno Smith (7) looks to throw in the third quarter against the New York Giants at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

But, it's hard to argue against the idea of Smith being better than what the Jets had in 2025. He still had 3,025 yards and 19 touchdown passes. New York quarterbacks combined to throw for 2,385 passing yards, 15 touchdowns and 13 interceptions in 2025. Even a down year for Smith was better.

The actual hidden risk isn't that Smith is going to be bad, in fact, it's the opposite. He's 35 years old and won't be the long-term answer for New York, but instead, hopefully a very good bridge option. The Jets have three first-round picks in the 2027 NFL Draft. New York has the Indianapolis Colts' pick and the Dallas Cowboys' pick. The 2027 NFL Draft is widely viewed as elite for quarterback talent. But the Cowboys have reloaded and likely won't be landing a pick near the top of the first round, unless something crazy happens.

The Colts kept Daniel Jones and Alec Pierce in town and should be competitive as well. With Smith, the floor of the Jets has been raised. The Jets happen to have the No. 2 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft in a draft that has one elite quarterback prospect. If the Jets want a long-term answer at quarterback in the 2027 NFL Draft, the addition of Smith may end up taking out of contention for that.

In comparison, picks No. 8-10 in the 2026 NFL Draft are going to be made by teams that went 6-11 in 2025. Arguably, the Jets already should be considered in that range at least. Imagine if the Jets are on the outside looking in on the elite quarterback prospects for a second straight year? At least they have the three picks and could try to package them together, but Smith is a short-term fix to a long-term problem.