Key Matchups, Predictions for Every 2025 NFL Wild-Card Game

The Bears’ run game will look to get hot against the Packers’ defense, while Justin Herbert will hope to lead the Chargers past a middling Patriots pass rush. This and more from this weekend’s postseason slate.

Justin Herbert and the Chargers will face the Drake Maye–led Patriots on Sunday night. / Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

The NFL playoffs are finally here, and now the real games begin. 

The first of six wild-card games is set to kick off on Saturday. In the opener, it will be the Rams visiting the Panthers, before the nightcap gives us two NFC North rivals, with the Bears and Packers at Soldier Field. 

Sunday features a tripleheader, bookended by a pair of AFC matchups. In the first game, the Jaguars will host the Bills, with Josh Allen looking to begin his journey to the first Super Bowl of his career. Then it’s the Eagles and 49ers in Philadelphia in a rematch of the 2022 NFC title game, before the Patriots will host the seventh-seeded Chargers under the lights at Gillette Stadium. 

Finally, Monday night has the Texans visiting the Steelers, who survived their de facto playoff game last weekend against the Ravens when Tyler Loop missed a 44-yard field goal on the game’s final play. 

Below, we look at what could decide each of these six games, starting with the contest in Charlotte between Matthew Stafford’s Rams and the Bryce Young–led Panthers.

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Rams (12–5) at Panthers (8–9)

Spread: Rams -10.5

Key matchup: Rams’ offense vs. Panthers’ takeaways

Key stat: Los Angeles is 0–3 when losing the turnover battle in 2025.

Date, Time, TV: 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday, Fox

Let’s travel back in time to Nov. 30. 

On that day, the Panthers pulled a stunning upset at home against the Rams, winning 31–28. Matthew Stafford threw two interceptions and lost a fumble. Bryce Young went 15-of-20 and threw three touchdowns. Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina’s 1,000-yard rookie receiver, caught only one pass, but it went for a 43-yard score, one of Young’s three 30-plus yard completions on the day. The Panthers also rushed for 164 yards on 4.1 yards per carry.

Most everything went right for Carolina. And it won by only three points.

In the rematch, Los Angeles will need to drill down on a few areas. For one, it can’t afford to have a negative turnover differential. The good news for the Rams? Over their 17-game season, they only had more turnovers than takeaways in three games. Those games accounted for three of their five losses. 

If Los Angeles can take care of the football, it should beat a Panthers team that is a year ahead of schedule with a quarterback who is statistically one of the worst in the playoffs. Young played well against the Rams, but his regular-season EPA of -40.8 was only better than Spencer Rattler, J.J. McCarthy, Joe Flacco, Geno Smith and Cam Ward.  

Verdict: Rams 30, Panthers 19

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Packers (9–7–1) at Bears (11–6)

Spread: Packers -1.5

Key matchup: Bears’ run game vs. Packers’ front seven

Key stat: In two games against Green Bay, Chicago has gained 288 rushing yards.

Date, Time, TV: 8 p.m. ET Saturday, Amazon Prime

Chicago has run effectively all season, whether it has been veteran D’Andre Swift or rookie seventh-round choice Kyle Monangai, with the tandem amassing 1,870 yards combined. Against the Packers, the Bears have run wild, gaining 288 rushing yards on 58 carries (4.9 YPC). 

This weekend, the temperature is predicted to be around the mid-20s with snow in the forecast, making the running game vitally important. And for the Packers, that means stopping a ground game that has racked up 144.5 yards per game, third-most in the league behind only the Bills and Ravens. Defensively, Green Bay ranks 12th in yards per rush against (4.2) and a middling 16th in EPA/rush (-0.06). 

The question is whether Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley decides to commit more players to the line of scrimmage or deploys a strategy similar to the first two meetings, in which Green Bay largely contained quarterback Caleb Williams and the passing game.

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In their two games, Williams threw for 253 passing yards between the second half of Chicago’s loss to the Packers and the final two minutes/overtime in the Bears’ 22–16 win. In the first half of their initial meeting and the opening 58 minutes of the second contest, Williams amassed only 183 passing yards. 

Verdict: Packers 20, Bears 17

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Bills (12–5) at Jaguars (13–4)

Spread: Bills -1.5

Key matchup: Passing defenses vs. Trevor Lawrence and Josh Allen

Key stat: Lawrence has 15 TD passes over the past six games.

Date, Time, TV: 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS

Nobody has been hotter than Trevor Lawrence over the past six weeks. 

Over that span, Jacksonville is 6–0 while Lawrence has thrown 15 touchdowns against one interception. His cumulative EPA in those half-dozen games is +69.2, after posting a -45.1 EPA in the previous 11 games. 

For context, Josh Allen’s EPA for 2025 is +57.3, the lowest figure of his career since the start of ’20. And for Allen, the back stretch of the season has been somewhat of a slog. For comparison, in his past six games (not including his one-play appearance in Week 18 against the Jets), his EPA is -12.3. 

The key for Buffalo will be limiting 1,000-yard rusher Travis Etienne Jr. to force Lawrence into predictable passing situations. The problem is that Buffalo ranks 30th against the run per carry, allowing 5.1 yards per rush. But should the Bills get Lawrence in those spots, they could have success despite his hot hand, as Buffalo is sixth in EPA per pass against at -0.19.

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Conversely, the Bills will look to pound the ball with 2025 rushing champion James Cook II, who amassed 1,621 yards. In that arena, Jacksonville has been stout, ranking eighth in EPA per rush (-0.08). The unit is even better against the pass, ranking second only to the Texans in EPA per pass (-0.21). 

Verdict: Jaguars 29, Bills 23

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49ers (12–5) at Eagles (11–6)

Spread: Eagles -4.5

Key matchup: Kevin Patullo’s offense vs. Robert Saleh

Key stat: Philadelphia reached the red zone 44 times this season, fifth-fewest in the NFL.

Date, Time, TV: 4:30 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox

Can the Eagles score enough to win? Whether they play just one playoff game or four this winter, that will be the enduring question.

​With first-year offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo calling the plays, the unit has struggled. The Eagles rank 20th in yards per play at 5.2, better only than the Texans and Panthers among playoff teams. It should also be noted that Houston started backup quarterback Davis Mills for three games, and played portions of two matchups with him as a reserve.

​Philadelphia has also reached the red zone only 44 times. The only teams to get inside the 20-yard line fewer times are the Browns, Jets, Raiders and Titans, franchises that combined for a 14–54 record in 2025. Philadelphia also checks in 25th in yards per drive (29.3), with only Houston being worse among the 14 remaining teams.

​Meanwhile, San Francisco is trying to survive defensively without Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, who are both out for the year with lower-body injuries. With the return of coordinator Robert Saleh, the Niners are well-coached but struggling, ranking 25th in EPA per play (+0.03). The defense also ranks last with 20 sacks, while being 24th in yards per play (5.6).

​Still, the group has come up big in tough spots, holding the Seahawks to 16 points in two games this year and beating the Rams 26–23 in October. Facing the battle-tested Eagles in their building, another major challenge awaits. 

Verdict: 49ers 17, Eagles 16

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Chargers (11–6) at Patriots (14–3)

Spread: Patriots -3.5

Key matchup: Justin Herbert vs. Patriots’ pass rush

Key stat: Herbert has been sacked 54 times, third-most in football.

Date, Time, TV: 8 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC

It’s been a long year for Justin Herbert’s body. 

Without Pro Bowl left tackle Rashawn Slater all season, and star right tackle Joe Alt for all but 11 games, Herbert has taken 74 hits and 54 sacks, the second and third-highest figures in the league. This weekend, though, he gets a somewhat toothless Patriots front seven. 

New England has been terrific in many areas, but the pass rush isn’t one of them. The Patriots are a solid 10th in pressure rate (35.9%), but they also rank 20th in sack rate (5.9%) and 28th in hurry rate (5.8%). With 35 sacks this season, New England had only more than the Jaguars, Panthers and Niners among playoff teams. 

For the Chargers to travel across the country and pull off the upset, they’ll need to protect Herbert while creating havoc for his counterpart in Drake Maye. 

Verdict: Patriots 25, Chargers 20

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Texans (12–5) at Steelers (10–7)

Spread: Texans -3

Key matchup: Aaron Rodgers vs. Houston’s impending rush

Key stat: Rodgers has thrown 268 passes in under 2.5 seconds, most in the NFL.

Date, Time, TV: 8:15 p.m. ET Monday, ESPN

Time will be of the essence in Pittsburgh this weekend. 

When the Steelers have possession, get your stopwatch out and click it at the snap. Then, when Aaron Rodgers throws the ball, click it again. Don’t be surprised if it feels rapid. 

Rodgers has thrown 268 times in less than 2.5 seconds this season, the most of any quarterback in the league. Not surprisingly, he hasn’t been sacked once under that threshold. Playing against the Texans and their dynamic edge duo of Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, with 27 sacks and 45 quarterback hits, that number is a tipping point. 

This season, Houston had 47 sacks, ranking seventh in the league. However, the Texans didn’t register a single one in 2.5 seconds or less. For Rodgers, the key will be not only getting rid of the ball fast but also identifying a pass catcher who can gain yards after the catch, since his throws will obviously be short. 

If Rodgers can’t find open receivers against a secondary featuring star corners in Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter, along with safety Jalen Pitre, holding the ball could mean the end of Pittsburgh’s season and his career.

Verdict: Texans 16, Steelers 13

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