Football Power Index Gives Lions Solid Odds To Win Super Bowl in 2026

Detroit Lions 2026 NFL season projections based on Football Power Index.

Detroit Lions running back Isiah Pacheco (10) walks off the field with running back Jahmyr Gibbs (0) after OTA practice | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Detroit Lions enter the 2026 season with a new attitude and a renewed sense of urgency to get to and to finally win their first Super Bowl.

A 9-8 record last season affords Dan Campbell's squad a schedule that is considered among the easiest this upcoming season.

Playing a fourth-place schedule does not guarantee the Lions will be successful, but other team's in the division face a more daunting challenge throughout the regular season.

ESPN recently revealed their 2026 NFL projections based on their Football Power Index. Early predictions and rankings are based on win totals from betting markets, while factoring in each team's schedule, their quarterback room and a special teams rating.

At this time, Detroit ranks eigth in the FPI rankings. The top team is the Rams, followed by the Bills, Ravens, Seahawks, 49ers, Packers and Chargers.

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"The NFC North trio of the Bears, Packers and Vikings rank 10th, 14th and 16th in strength of schedule, respectively," NFL analyst Seth Walder writes. "But the Lions rank 31st. Detroit lucked out after finishing last in the division in 2025, as its fourth-place schedule differ significantly from its NFC North rivals."

Detroit has a 68.4% chance of qualifying for the playoffs, 38.2% of winning the NFC North, 20.9% of making it to the NFC Title game, 10% of making it to the Super Bowl and a 5.2% chance of winning it all.

Campbell's squad has the sixth-best chance of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy this year.

"Though the other three teams must battle with NFC West heavyweights, the Lions face the Cardinals," Walder explains. "Same deal (to less of an extreme) in facing the AFC South -- the rest of the division has to face one of the Texans, Colts and Jaguars, while the Lions play the Titans. Detroit also will face the Giants, and the Bears and Packers will have to tangle with the Eagles and Cowboys, respectively.

"So while the FPI considers the Packers the best team in the NFC North heading into 2026, the Lions are narrow favorites to win the division with a 38.2% chance (compared with Green Bay's 32.8%)."

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