Vegas Expects Lions to Squeak Out Victory against Packers

The betting line for the Detroit Lions’ Thanksgiving matchup against the Green Bay Packers paints the picture of a divisional tilt expected to go down to the wire.

According to DraftKings, Detroit enters the holiday clash as a 2.5-point favorite at Ford Field.

It’s a modest spread that reflects both the Lions’ inconsistencies this season and Green Bay’s more consistent play, making this Week 13 NFC North showdown one of the most intriguing games on the holiday slate.

The narrow line also underscores how different both teams look compared to their first meeting back in Week 1. In that season opener, Detroit came out flat on both sides of the ball, and was soundly beaten, 27–13, after falling behind 17–3 before halftime.

Since then, the Lions have been unpredictable, showcasing glimpses of both contender-level promise and frustrating lapses. However, they enter Thanksgiving with a tiny bit of momentum following an overtime victory against the New York Giants.

Meanwhile, the Packers have quietly stacked wins, including a convincing 23–6 victory over J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings a week ago to improve to 7-3-1.

Oddsmakers’ caution likely stems from Detroit’s offensive volatility. The Lions needed a heroic effort from Jahmyr Gibbs just to escape Ford Field with a win last week. The third-year back delivered an electric performance, amassing a career-best 219 rushing yards and three total touchdowns, including the game-winner on the first play of overtime.

Expecting that level of production again against Green Bay’s stingy run defense is far from guaranteed.

The Packers rank among the league’s best in rushing yards allowed, and have given up more than 100 yards on the ground only four times all year. And in Gibbs’ last time out against Green Bay, he produced a measly 19 yards on nine carries.

The passing game doesn’t offer much certainty, either. Sam LaPorta led the Lions in receiving the first time these teams met, but the Pro Bowl tight end is now on injured reserve with a back injury

In his absence, Detroit will need to get more consistent production out of Jameson Williams, who caught just four balls for 23 yards in Week 1 and finished with zero catches a week ago against New York.

All of this makes it clear why Vegas set such a tight spread.

Detroit is at home, coming off an emotional win, and still boasts enough offensive talent to threaten any opponent. Yet, Green Bay is disciplined, tough defensively and playing with confidence behind Jordan Love.

The Lions remain favored – and rightfully so – but the betting line reflects the expectation of a nail-biter between two teams fighting to stay alive in the a NFC playoff race.

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