NFL Playoff-Clinching Scenarios for Week 18 and What’s At Stake

Denver, New England and Jacksonville can still capture home-field advantage in the AFC, while the Seahawks and 49ers can do the same in the NFC.

If Sean Payton's Broncos can beat the Chargers, they will have home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. / Denny Medley-Imagn Images

Welcome to the madness that is the final weekend of the NFL regular season. 

In the AFC, there’s still a lot to be determined. In fact, not a single seed is locked in; the Broncos, Patriots and Jaguars can all still finish with the No. 1 seed. That said, if Denver can beat the Chargers, led by Trey Lance, it will be at home for wild-card weekend before hosting the rest of the AFC playoffs. 

Of course, the big game here is Sunday night, when the Steelers will host the Ravens. Whoever wins the AFC North winner-take-all matchup will earn the No. 4 seed and the right to host a game next weekend.

The NFC is more straightforward. Green Bay is locked into the seventh seed. The Bears and Eagles will be the second and third seeds, respectively, unless Chicago loses to the Lions and Philadelphia beats the Commanders. If both of those outcomes happen, they’ll switch spots. 

Saturday will be key in the NFC, with the Panthers and Buccaneers playing for the NFC South title. If Carolina wins, it will be the No. 4 seed. If Tampa Bay wins, it will still need the Saints to beat the Falcons on Sunday to win the NFC South. Otherwise, the Panthers will win the division.

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On Saturday night, the 49ers will host the Seahawks. The winner not only captures the NFC West but will be the No. 1 seed. If Seattle loses, it will be the fifth seed. If San Francisco falls, it will be the sixth seed, unless the Rams lose to the three-win Cardinals.

Let’s get to all the scenarios below, starting with the AFC playoff picture:

*Denotes playoff berth clinched

**Denotes division winner 

AFC

1. Denver Broncos (13–3)**
2. New England Patriots (13–3)**
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (12–4)*
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (9–7)
5. Houston Texans (11–5)*
6. Los Angeles Chargers (11–5)*
7. Buffalo Bills (11–5)*

Jaguars vs. Titans, 1 p.m. ET Sunday

Jacksonville clinches AFC South, AFC’s No. 1 seed and home-field advantage with:

• Jacksonville win plus Denver loss plus New England loss

Jacksonville clinches AFC South with:

• Jacksonville win or tie OR

• Houston loss or tie

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Texans vs. Colts, 1 p.m. ET

Houston clinches AFC South with:

• Houston win plus Jacksonville loss

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Broncos vs. Chargers; 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday

Denver clinches the AFC’s No. 1 seed and home-field advantage with:

• Denver win OR

• Denver tie plus New England loss or tie OR

• New England loss plus Jacksonville loss or tie

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Patriots vs. Dolphins, 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday

New England clinches the AFC’s No. 1 seed and home-field advantage with:

• New England win plus Denver loss or tie OR

• New England tie plus Denver loss

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Ravens at Steelers, 8 p.m. ET Sunday

Baltimore clinches AFC North with:

• Baltimore win

Pittsburgh clinches AFC North with:

• Pittsburgh win or tie

NFC

1. Seattle Seahawks (13–3)*
2. Chicago Bears (11–5)**
3. Philadelphia Eagles (11–5)**
4. Carolina Panthers (8–8)
5. San Francisco 49ers (12–4)*
6. Los Angeles Rams (11–5)*
7. Green Bay Packers (9–6–1)*

Panthers at Buccaneers, 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday

Carolina clinches NFC South with:

• Carolina win or tie OR

• Atlanta win

Tampa Bay clinches NFC South with:

• Tampa Bay win plus Atlanta loss or tie

49ers vs. Seahawks, 8 p.m. ET Saturday

San Francisco clinches NFC West, NFC’s No. 1 seed and home-field advantage with:

• San Francisco win

Seattle clinches NFC West, NFC’s No. 1 seed and home-field advantage with:

• Seattle win or tie

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