A Step-by-Step Examination of Why Packers Have ‘Disgusting’ Offensive Issue

GREEN BAY, Wis. – On a question about Matthew Golden on Tuesday, Green Bay Packers coach Matt LaFleur talked about a play against the Jets in which Golden split two defenders on second-and-7.

“He drop-stepped, gets 8 yards, and it keeps us out of third down, which we obviously need to stay out of third down right now,” LaFleur said. He punctuated the sentence with a wry laugh.

Third down, however, is no laughing matter.

“No, it’s disgusting,” LaFleur said.

That’s a good word for it. The Packers are the worst team in the league on third down with a conversion rate of 19.1 percent. They moved the chains just once in Sunday’s win at the Jets.

Not all third downs are alike, obviously. Too often, it’s been third-and-too-far.

“I think that is really the majority of it,” LaFleur said.

Why?

Why are the Packers so bad after finishing second last season at 48.8 percent?

“I think you look at our third downs, I want to say we’re last in the league in distance to go,” LaFleur continued. “It’s almost third-and-10 every time, which, if you’re in those situations, it’s a low percentage, so we got to get into the third-and-3s, the short-yardage situations, and then do a good job executing in those moments.”

Here’s a drive down the highway to hell that has been third down.

First Down

The Packers are averaging only 3.0 yards per first-down play, which ranks 30th.

It’s not just that number, as bad as it is. The Packers have gained first downs on 15.9 percent of their first-down plays. That’s not great – it ranks 20th – but it really shows the boom-or-bust production from Green Bay’s offense.

Contrary to popular opinion, it’s not because LaFleur has stubbornly run the ball on first down. They’ve run the ball on 54.9 percent of their first-down plays, which ranks 17th. Top-10 scoring offenses Buffalo, San Francisco and Baltimore are also top-10 in first-down run percentage.

The Packers are averaging 2.7 yards on those first-down carries. That ranks 29th. The league median is 4.1.

So, clearly, the Packers should throw it, right? Well, the Packers are averaging 3.9 yards on their first-down passes. That ranks 27th.

While it’s true that 3.9 yards is better than 2.7, quarterback Jordan Love is only 8-of-19 for 121 yards. And he’s been sacked four times for a loss of 19 yards. So, on 23 total dropbacks, the Packers have 0 yards or worse on 15. That means a lot of second-and-10s.

At least running the ball provides opportunities for second-and-7, though that requires better blocking from the line and better production from the backs.

On top of all of that, the Packers have been guilty of four holding penalties on first down, putting the offense immediately behind the 8-ball.

Second Down

The Packers, surprisingly, have the best second-down offense in the NFL. They are averaging 9.3 yards per play on second down, which is 1.1 yards better than any other team and 4.0 yards better than the league median. They’ve run 19 plays on second down that have produced first downs.

Statistically, Love has been electric, going 22-of-32 for 354 yards with four touchdowns and one interception, good for a 132.0 passer rating.

However, there’s some small-sample-size skewing of the numbers because it includes Christian Watson’s 81-yard touchdown, Jonnu Smith’s 43-yard catch, Golden’s 42-yard catch and three more plays of 20-plus yards.

Even the run game has been productive, ranking 13th with 4.3 yards per carry. However, LaFleur has run the ball only nine times on second down, with three of those gaining 1 yard or worse and a fourth gaining 4 yards on second-and-23.

For fans believing LaFleur has been especially stubborn calling runs on second down, the Packers have a league-low 21.4 percent run rate on second down. The median is 42.5 percent.

Third Down

Added together, the woeful third-down offense and the boom-or-bust second-down attack means the average third down has required 8.8 yards to convert. Only the Ravens (10.2) have faced more challenging third-down situations.

“We need to be more productive on first and second down to give us a chance,” offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said. “I think if you look at like, third-and-7 and under, we’re around 50 percent. But we’ve just been third-and-8-plus it seems like every time, so we need to do a better job on first and second down in order to take care of third down. That’s the biggest problem, in my opinion.”

Love has been absolutely terrible on third down. He’s 7-of-19 for 57 yards. Of quarterbacks who’ve thrown at least nine passes on third down, his 36.8 percent completion rate is better than only the Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence and the Steelers’ Aaron Rodgers. His 3.0 yards per attempt is the worst. (Malik Willis, by the way, is No. 1 in both categories.) He’s only been sacked once but the pressure, obviously, has been a factor.

Almost unbelievably, the Packers’ third-down play-calling has been 20 passes and one run. The one run? The third-and-11 play at Minnesota.

Contrary to what LaFleur said, the Packers haven’t had an abundance of third-and-10 (or longer) snaps. They’ve had a middle-of-the-pack seven of those. The production is insane.

As in insanely bad.

The Packers’ average third-and-10 play has lost 1.3 yards. The league median is 6.1 yards. As you might expect, they have zero third-and-10 conversions; the median is 25.0 percent.

The Packers have faced 14 snaps of third-and-7 (or longer), which is tied for the eighth-most. They’re averaging 0.9 yards on those plays with one conversion. Love is a ghastly 4-of-12 (33.3 percent) for 26 yards. The Bengals’ Joe Burrow is 8-of-8 for 108 yards; he is one of four quarterbacks with more conversions than Love has completions.

On the other hand, the Packers have had third-and-3 (or shorter) only four times; only one team has had fewer. They haven’t had any third-and-1s and just one third-and-2, which came in garbage time at Minnesota.

Won’t Get Easier vs. Falcons

It won’t be easy on Thursday against the Falcons, who rank 10th in third-down defense due in part to their top-ranked run defense. While Green Bay’s average third down requires 8.8 yards, Atlanta’s average third down on defense requires the opponent to gain 8.6 yards.

Love pointed to the number of penalties and negative plays. On first down, the Packers have gained 0 yards or worse on 21 snaps. By snaps, that’s the third-most in the league. By percentage of snaps, that is the worst in the league.

So, added together, the Packers have run five plays of third-and-4 or less and 14 plays of third-and-7 or longer.

“(An) area we’ve got to clean up (is) pre-snap penalties,” Love said. “You’re not going to be very good in this league if you’re just going backwards the entire time. So, we’ve got to clean that up. It’s all stuff that we can control, where it’s just the focus, the mindset, being locked in, hearing the call in the huddle and just going out there and executing it.”

Why are the Packers struggling? It's a real mystery. (See link in the replies.) pic.twitter.com/f148wFwDwz
— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) September 22, 2026

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