If Packers Trade Rodgers, This Would Be Worst Outcome

GREEN BAY, Wis. – At this point, what Aaron Rodgers plans to do next football season is anyone’s guess. Will he be the quarterback of the Green Bay Packers or ask for a trade to another team? Will he retire to host a game show or captain a crab boat in Alaska?

There’s still plenty of optimism from those who work at 1265 Lombardi Ave. that Rodgers will return to Green Bay for a 15th season as the starter. However, on the heels of a report that Rodgers was “truly torn” on where he wanted to play next season, and that he’s considering three other teams – if he’s “truly torn,” then there must be another team or teams that he’s torn over, right? – there’s nothing beautiful about this mystery from the team’s perspective.

With that said, here are the options, ranked from best to worst.

Aaron Rodgers Returns with a Tom Brady-Style Extension

To say Rodgers has never really given the Packers a break financially perhaps isn’t true. In 2018, he signed a four-year extension worth $134 million. Maybe he could have earned $160 million.

Nonetheless, what is true is Brady played under below-market contracts. Both players signed extensions in 2013, which helpfully allows an apples-to-apples comparison. From 2013 through 2021, Brady earned about $229.5 million while Rodgers earned $258.5 million. That’s $29 million, or $3.2 million. Over the past eight seasons, Rodgers took up a bigger percentage of the salary cap six times. Ultimately neither team won the Super Bowl in 2021, but it was a lot easier for the Buccaneers to build around Brady’s cap charge of merely $10.55 million than it was for Green Bay to build around Rodgers’ cap charge of $27.57 million.

“First of all, I’d like all of our players to take the minimum,” general manager Brian Gutekunst said with a smile before the Scouting Combine. “That would be great, and I know Russ (Ball) would be very appreciative of that, as well. In some ways I think Aaron has taken some under-valued numbers along the way. This is the MVP of the league. What he means to our football team is so important. To me, you work everything else around that.”

Nobody should ever be upset over a player’s paycheck. But it’s undeniable that if Team A is paying its quarterback $40 million per season and Team B is paying its quarterback $30 million per season, Team B can afford one more really, really good player.

Aaron Rodgers Returns with Long-Term Extension

Even if Rodgers signs through, say, 2025, the annual drama isn’t going anywhere. Every year, he’ll need to step away and decide if he wants to play again, which is understandable. But at least they’d control his rights if he wants out.

Aaron Rodgers Returns with Short-Term Extension

A two-year extension would mean less of an impact on the salary cap because the Packers could add three void years on the back end to ease the short-term pain. The drawback is if he were to leave via free agency following the 2023 season, the Packers would receive only a fifth-round compensatory pick.

Aaron Rodgers Is Traded to Denver Broncos

Looking purely at draft capital, Denver has by far the most to offer in a trade of the three reported suitors. First and foremost, it owns the ninth pick of the upcoming draft. Elite prospects generally are found in the top 10. Moreover, the Broncos have two second-round picks, including the eighth pick of that round.

With Rodgers’ relationship with coach Nathaniel Hackett, the Broncos have always seemed like the most likely landing spot. They’re also in the best position cap-wise to make a trade and build around Rodgers. There’s no doubt the Packers want Rodgers to make another run in 2022. But a trade to Denver would be a win-win, so long as Gutekunst nails that first pick. A scout at heart, he’d be up for the challenge.

Aaron Rodgers is Traded to Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers weren’t very good last season but they did sneak into the playoffs, meaning they have the 20th pick of the first round. Getting Rodgers means going all-in for a championship, so they probably don’t a lot of talented veterans they’d be willing to throw into the deal to sweeten the pot.

Aaron Rodgers is Traded to Tennessee Titans

Having earned the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs last season, the Titans have a powerful roster that would be incredibly appealing to Rodgers. However, Tennessee owns the 26th pick of the first round and sent its second-round pick to Atlanta in the Julio Jones trade.

The bigger problem is the Titans – who are dealing with their own cap problems – probably would be forced to send Ryan Tannehill back to Green Bay. Tannehill is a good quarterback – at this point, he’s clearly better than Jordan Love – but his cap charge of $38.6 million includes a guaranteed base salary of $29 million. That means taking on Tannehill would actually add $9.18 million to Green Bay’s cap problems. (His $29 million salary minus the cap savings of $19.82 million in trading Rodgers.)

Whatever the decision with Rodgers, the resolution ideally would positively impact Green Bay’s salary cap. If Rodgers went to Gutekunst and asked to be traded to Tennessee, it would only add to the challenge of Green Bay’s difficult offseason.

Denver Broncos

Pro for Rodgers: Nathaniel Hackett, the Packers’ offensive coordinator the past three seasons, is the new coach. They became close during their time together, and Rodgers’ career experienced a rebirth that culminated in back-to-back MVPs.

“There’s nobody in the building that brings me more joy or is more fun to be around than Nathaniel Hackett,” Rodgers said before a game against Jacksonville in 2020. “Hack has been a really important part of our culture change and a part of our success on offense. I love him. Hope he doesn’t go anywhere. Unless I do.”

Moreover, Rodgers and Hackett would know exactly what they’d want to do together on offense. The Broncos won seven games in 2021; one team executive figured they’d win at least 11 with Rodgers in 2022 because of their defense, perimeter targets and running back Javonte Williams.

Pro for Packers: The Broncos have by far the best draft package available. They have the ninth pick of the first round, Nos. 40 and 64 overall in the second round and Nos. 75 and 96 in the third round. Green Bay, remember, has No. 28 in the first round. Using the old-school trade value chart, the Packers could take No. 28 and No. 40 and move up to No. 13. Using a newer-school chart, the Packers could package those picks and get to No. 11. Could Green Bay get first- and second-round picks in this draft and a first-rounder in 2023? If so, Gutekunst would be armed with the picks to quickly reload.

The Broncos also could ship back quarterback Drew Lock, who visited Green Bay before the 2019 draft, and they’ve got a lot of young talent at receiver and corner.

Con: Rodgers has been the schoolyard bully to the rest of the NFC North. When he shouted, “I own you!” to Bears fans, he wasn’t boasting. If anything, he was underselling it. He could have shouted, “I own you! Just like I own Detroit and Minnesota!” Obviously, it’s a whole other kettle of fish with two matchups per season against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, Justin Herbert and the Chargers and Derek Carr and the Raiders.

However, while Denver went 1-5 against the AFC West last year, they beat the Chargers by 15 in November and lost by four to the Raiders and Chiefs in December.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Pro for Rodgers: The Steelers went 9-7-1 last season even with past-his-prime Ben Roethlisberger at the controls of the offense. That included sweeps of Baltimore and Cleveland and victories over the two other alleged suitors, Denver and Tennessee.

With receivers Chase Claypool and Diontae Johnson, tight end Pat Freiermuth and running back Najee Harris, Rodgers would be joining a strong group of skill-position players. Moreover, Rodgers has spoken highly of Steelers coach Mike Tomlin.

“A lot of respect. I haven’t spent time with him, but I’ve watched him from afar for a long time,” Rodgers said before the teams met in Week 4. “I just enjoy the way he talks about his players. I’ve had some friends play over there and stories are very consistent with the kind of day-to-day coach that he is. I just like his demeanor. I think he fits that Iron City perfectly and a lot of respect.”

Pro for Packers: The executive said the Steelers are the least-talented of the three teams, which would lessen the potential of Packers fans having to see Rodgers win a second Lombardi Trophy in some other team’s uniform. The Packers played the Steelers in 2021, meaning they’re not scheduled to play again until 2025. So, perhaps they’d be able to avoid the PR nightmare that could be a Rodgers vs. Love (or whoever) matchup.

Con: The Steelers own the 20th pick of the first round. Presumably, they would finish with a better record with Rodgers so a potential first-round pick in 2023 would be even worse. Moreover, while they have some elite players such as T.J. Watt, the Steelers aren’t exactly loaded with players who the Packers might covet in a trade package.

Tennessee Titans

Pro for Rodgers: Based purely on talent, you’d have to think this would be Rodgers’ preferred destination. The Titans won the No. 1 seed in the AFC last year with Ryan Tannehill at quarterback and rampaging running back Derrick Henry missing nine games and falling short of last year’s rushing production by about 1,100 yards. Henry and receiver A.J. Brown are first-class studs, and there’s enough talent on defense that a Rodgers-led offense wouldn’t have to fly solo.

Matt LaFleur was the Titans’ offensive coordinator in 2018 and the Titans still run a version of that offense, so it would be a rather seamless transition.

Pro for Packers: To make the finances work, a trade probably would have to include Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill. He did not play well in 2021 but he threw 55 touchdowns vs. 13 interceptions with a passer rating of about 110 in 2019 and 2020. Is Tannehill a great quarterback? No. But the Titans won a lot of games with him and he’d be a rather seamless fit in LaFleur’s offense. In other words, Green Bay would keep winning games.

“He does such a great job with working through his progressions, taking what the defense gives him,” LaFleur said before the teams’ December 2020 showdown. “He’s very decisive. You can tell he truly understands the rhythm and the timing of the passing game, and then when things aren’t there and stuff breaks down, he’s so athletic, he’s so fast. He can get out of the pocket and he can create.”

Con: With a guaranteed base salary of $29 million, Tannehill’s cap number in 2022 is a whopping $38.6 million. So, the Packers wouldn’t exactly be creating all sorts of cap space. Meanwhile, the Titans have the worst trade package of draft picks. They own the 26th pick of the first round and don’t have a second-round choice after acquiring Julio Jones.

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